县域经济发展时空差异和影响因素的地理探测——以甘肃省为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj020171169

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

县域作为中国经济发展的基本空间单元和产业承接载体,对其经济发展的空间差异及其影响因素的研究对理解区域经济格局及其演变具有重要意义。运用ArcGIS空间分析功能,以NICH指数和人均实际GDP为县域经济发展测度指标,以甘肃省为研究对象,对县域经济发展的空间集聚状态和时空演变进行动态分析,并对经济发展的影响因素进行地理探测。结果表明：2001—2015年,甘肃省县域经济发展活力与发展水平空间格局基本吻合;就经济发展活力而言,其县域与城区发展不平衡,且经济发展活力整体上呈现下降态势,县域经济逆势提升具有很大挑战;经济发展活力冷热点区保持相对稳定,重心向西北倾斜的“哑铃状”空间格局不断强化,热点区呈现明显的“点-轴”发展格局;甘肃省县域经济空间差异主导因子包括工业化水平、经济基础、市场规模,各影响因素之间具有明显的交互作用,增强了单一因子的贡献量;县域经济发展的主导影响因素存在明显的地域差异性,对不同分区主导因子驱动机制的分析,可以为科学制定四大分区县域经济发展定位及地区协调统筹发展提供参考。

关键词: 县域经济, NICH指数, 热点分析, 地理探测器, 甘肃

Abstract:

As the basic spatial unit and industrial carrier, the county bears significant importance in Chinese economic system, and the spatial disparity of county economic development played a vital role in understanding the evolution of spatial pattern of regional economic development. Therefore, the study on its spatial-temporal difference and the analysis of its influencing factors seem distinctly important. This paper analyzed the dynamics of spatial cluster of county economic development and its spatial-temporal evolution pattern by adopting spatial analysis of ArcGIS, and taking the NICH index and per capita real GDP as measure indicators. The results showed that: From 2001 to 2015, the spatial pattern of economic growth vitality and economic development level is basically consistent; as for the economic growth vitality, the county and city unevenly developed and its overall vitality declined, making county economic revitalization facing great challenge. Hot spot analysis helped us to understand spatial economic agglomeration state of counties in Gansu. The hot and cold spots of economic growth vitality remain relatively stable, which showed a "dumbbell-shaped" spatial pattern whose gravity center leaned towards northwest, and this pattern was gradually strengthened. The hot spots showed a clear "pole-axis" spatial pattern. The cold spots were mainly distributed in the south part of Longdong Region and the Southern Minority Region, which are spatially aggregated beyond the development axis. The main driving factors of the spatial difference of county economy included regional investment level, economic basis, and market scale. In addition, the obvious interaction between the influencing factors improved the contribution of the single factor. There were obvious regional differences in the leading factors influencing county economy development. Based on the dominant mechanism of driving factors, this study could provide scientific reference for functional orientation of county economy and its integrated development in Gansu province.

Key words: county economy, NICH index, hot spot analysis, geodetector, Gansu

胡雪瑶, 张子龙, 陈兴鹏, 王月菊. 县域经济发展时空差异和影响因素的地理探测——以甘肃省为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(4): 772-783.

Xueyao HU, Zilong ZHANG, Xingpeng CHEN, Yueju WANG. Geographic detection of spatial-temporal difference and its influencing factors on county economic development: A case study of Gansu province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(4): 772-783.

图/表 6

表1

图1

表2

图2

图3

表3

2015年甘肃省及分区经济发展水平影响因子探测结果"

探测因子	q
探测因子	全省	河西地区	陇中地区	陇东南地区	南部民族地区
X₁	0.37	0.32	0.28	0.07	0.44
X₂	0.57	0.55	0.80	0.30	0.48
X₃	0.75	0.68	0.90	0.41	0.74
X₄	0.85	0.90	0.68	0.84	0.44
X₅	0.36	0.14	0.82	0.30	0.82
X₆	0.39	0.60	0.67	0.61	0.24
X₇	0.68	0.84	0.60	0.37	0.38
X₈	0.52	0.52	0.59	0.01	0.09
X₉	0.09	0.004	0.57	0.08	0.39
X₁₀	0.29	0.10	0.28	0.10	0.26
主导交互因子	X₁ $?$ X₄	X₂ $?$ X₇	X₂ $?$ X₄	X₃ $?$ X₆	X₅ $?$ X₆
主导交互因子q值	0.96	0.98	0.98	0.95	0.95

表3

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探测因子	探测因素	指标
X₁	人口流动规模	流动人口比率（%）
X₂	城镇化	城镇人口比重（%）
X₃	经济基础	2001年人均GDP（万元）
X₄	工业化水平	人均工业总产值（万元）
X₅	市场规模	人均社会消费品零售额（万元）
X₆	产业支撑能力	第二产业比重（%）
X₇	投资水平	人均固定资产投资（万元）
X₈	非市场化	国有企业就业比例（%）
X₉	行政区类型	属于市辖区记为2,否则记为1
X₁₀	扶贫政策	属于国家级扶贫重点县记为2,否则为1

	2005年	2010年	2015年
河西地区Nich指数最高的5个县市	阿克塞 (5.75)、金川 (5.49)、玉门 (3.64)、嘉峪关 (3.04)、肃北 (2.96)	玉门 (4.60)、肃南 (4.25)、金川 (3.45)、肃北 (3.27)、嘉峪关 (3.26)	玉门(4.94)、阿克塞 (4.20)、金川(3.88)、肃南(2.91)、嘉峪关(2.77)
陇中地区Nich指数最高的5个县市	西固 (6.70)、白银 (3.89)、七里河(3.48)、红古 (3.42)、城关 (2.49)	西固 (5.29)、红古 (4.98)、白银 (3.46)、七里河 (2.76)、皋兰 (2.30)	红古(6.01)、皋兰(4.53)、白银(3.80)、七里河(3.41)、永登(3.30)
陇东南Nich指数最高的5个县市	庆城(1.59)、成县(1.45)、崆峒(1.42)、华亭(1.30)、华池(1.27)	庆城(2.85)、华池(2.09)、华亭(1.48)、灵台(1.21)、崆峒(1.14)	庆城(2.36)、华池(1.33)、崆峒(1.18)、秦州(1.08)、合水(0.89)
南部民族地区Nich指数最高的5个县市	玛曲(0.94)、碌曲(0.91)、合作(0.88)、临夏(0.68)、夏河(0.59)	合作(0.74)、迭部(0.58)、碌曲(0.55)、夏河(0.49)、卓尼(0.48)	临夏(0.77)、合作(0.72)、碌曲(0.17)、临夏(0.45)、迭部(0.43)