中国水资源“农转非”时空异质性及形成机制

doi:10.11821/dlyj020171262

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

借助重心迁移、面板分位数回归分析法研究2003—2015年中国省域水资源“农转非”的时空格局、过程及机制。研究表明：① 水资源“农转非”呈显著空间分异特征,自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减,且北方地区总体低于南方地区。② 水资源“农转非”重心轨迹波动较大,2003—2008年受重庆、青海、云南的引擎拉动呈西南向移动,2008—2015年在西部省份水资源“农转非”减缓,以及辽宁、吉林、北京等水资源“农转非”提升的共同影响下,呈持续东北向迁移。③ 产业结构变动、市场化水平提高、人均水资源拥有量及生态环境改善是水资源“农转非”主要驱动力,水资源利用比较收益、经济发展水平及人口规模等因素则制约了非农用水占比的提升,城市化水平与农业有效节灌率在不同时段对不同等级地区的作用方向与强度呈相反态势。

关键词: 水资源“农转非”, 异质性, 重心迁移, 形成机制, 中国

Abstract:

This paper aims to explore the heterogeneous pattern, evolving characteristics, and driving mechanism of provincial water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture from 2003 to 2015 in China, by methods of spatio-temporal cluster, the shifting gravity center and its decomposition and panel quantile regression. The results show that: (1) The spatial divergence of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture is obvious, which is gradually decreasing from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and the divergence in northern provinces are lower than that in southern regions. (2) The shifting gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture has changed greatly. the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture moves southwestward between 2003 and 2008, which is propelled by the engines of Chongqing, Qinghai and Yunnan; While the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture shifts to the northeast from 2008 to 2015, which is resulted from both the falling speed of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in the western provinces and the joint promotion of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in Liaoning, Jilin and Beijing. (3) The change of regional industrial structure, the improvement of marketization level, per capita water resources and the improvement of ecological environment are the main driving factors of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture. The improvement of the comparative benefit of water resources utilization, the level of economic development and population size are the main constraints of the trsnsfer, while the urbanization level and the effective rate of agricultural irrigation exert reverse impacts on different levels of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in different periods of time.

Key words: water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture, heterogeneity, the shifting gravity center, driving mechanism, China

胡美娟, 李在军, 丁正山, 周年兴, 沈一忱. 中国水资源“农转非”时空异质性及形成机制[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(6): 1542-1554.

Meijuan HU, Zaijun LI, Zhengshan DING, Nianxing ZHOU, Yichen SHEN. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity and driving mechanism of China's water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(6): 1542-1554.

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变量名	描述	观测值	标准差	均值	最小值	最大值
水资源“农转非”程度（Y）	当年非农业用水占比/农业用水占比	403	112.01	87.77	5.1	655.8
产业结构变动（X₁）	非农业产值/农业产值	403	28.22	16.82	2.83	227.77
人均GDP（X₂）	人均GDP（元）	403	21277.08	30928.93	3685.63	106904.91
人口规模（X₃）	当年人口数（万人）	403	2704.51	4269.03	270	10849
城市化率（X₄）	当年城镇人口占比-基期城镇人口占比	403	6.08	10.38	-0.83	27.85
生态环境改善（X₅）	当年生态用水量/总用水量	403	13.7	4.3	0	103
水资源利用比较收益（X₆）	每方水非农产值/每方水农业产值	403	24.43	26.74	2.91	131.95
农业有效节灌率（X₇）	（有效灌溉面积+节灌面积）/耕地面积	403	20.64	37.50	7.31	96.51
人均水资源量（X₈）	当年水资源量/当年人口数（m³/人）	403	26401.34	6861.99	72.8	177174.7
市场化指数（X₉）	市场化综合得分	403	2.64	7.46	0.3	14.97

分位点	截距项	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉
0.1	-3.341^***	5.414^**	-1.273	0.033	-1.396	0.590^**	-2.906^***	0.199	0.852^*	2.685^**
0.2	-3.575^***	3.850^***	-0.893	-0.532	0.544	0.386	-3.599^***	0.354	1.062^**	2.574^**
0.3	-3.679^***	3.890^***	-0.920	-0.158	0.742	0.080	-3.461^***	0.418	0.994^**	2.429^**
0.4	-3.496^***	3.948^***	-0.755	-0.093	0.531	0.107	-3.538^***	0.442	1.072^**	2.162^***
0.5	-2.681^**	4.984^***	-0.717	-0.340	-1.056	0.176	-3.477^***	0.075	0.518	2.262^***
0.6	-2.353^***	5.447^***	-0.647^*	-0.555	-1.459^**	0.266	-3.692^***	0.010	0.330	2.180^***
0.7	-2.245^***	5.141^***	-0.565	-0.806^**	-1.720^**	0.328	-3.762^***	0.133	0.249	2.428^**
0.8	-2.231^***	4.679^***	-1.029^**	-1.286^**	-1.684^**	0.438^**	-3.984^***	0.273	0.524	3.184^**
0.9	-2.290^***	3.668^***	-1.860^**	-2.196^**	-1.364^**	0.525^**	-4.249^***	0.361	1.041^**	4.743^***

分位点	截距项	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉
0.1	-3.056^***	4.344^***	0.303	-0.098	-2.716^***	0.918^***	-5.324^***	0.208	2.618^***	4.186^***
0.2	-3.746^***	3.932^***	-0.569	-0.292	0.267	0.692	-4.912^***	-0.143	2.916^***	4.036^***
0.3	-4.235^***	3.985^***	-1.453^**	-0.343	2.314^**	0.326	-4.265^***	-0.180	3.084^***	3.761^***
0.4	-3.651^***	4.089^***	-0.492	-0.560^*	2.059^*	0.432	-4.612^***	0.039	2.308^***	2.430^**
0.5	-3.528^***	4.192^***	-0.688	-0.746^**	2.100^**	0.394	-4.692^***	0.008	2.638^***	2.530^**
0.6	-3.596^***	4.173^***	-0.706	-0.533^**	2.941^**	0.187	-4.677^***	-0.173	2.717^***	1.993^***
0.7	-3.564^***	4.007^***	-1.112^*	-0.632^**	3.311^**	0.083	-4.350^***	-0.200	2.381^***	2.016^***
0.8	-3.271^***	4.679^***	-1.252^**	-0.716^**	3.113^**	0.024	-4.603^***	-0.763^**	2.678^***	2.412^***
0.9	-2.966^**	5.413^***	-1.100^**	-0.879^***	3.351^***	0.502^*	-4.888^***	-1.110^***	2.912^***	2.470^**