地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1497-1511.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180095

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配

曾通刚1,2(), 赵媛1,2,3()   

  1. 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
    2. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
    3. 南京师范大学金陵女子学院,南京 210097
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-16 修回日期:2018-06-20 出版日期:2019-06-20 发布日期:2019-06-12
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:曾通刚(1992-),男,四川德阳人,硕士,研究方向为人口与老年地理学。E-mail: tonggangzeng@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41430635);全国老龄办2018年度政策理论研究课题(QLB2018A035)

Spatial and temporal evolution of the undertakings for the elderly and spatial mismatch of economy in China

Tonggang ZENG1,2(), Yuan ZHAO1,2,3()   

  1. 1. School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
    3. Ginling College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China
  • Received:2018-01-16 Revised:2018-06-20 Online:2019-06-20 Published:2019-06-12

摘要:

基于“积极老龄化”理论框架,从健康、参与和保障三大维度构建中国老龄事业发展水平评价指标体系。以中国大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,运用数理统计、重心和空间重叠性、空间错位分析和计量经济模型等方法,分析了2004—2016年中国老龄事业发展水平的时序变化、空间格局、错位特征及其影响机制。结果表明:① 2004—2016年,中国老龄事业发展水平整体快速增长,区域差异逐渐缩小,但区域失衡特征不容忽视。东部地区整体水平高于中部、西部及东北地区,并伴有“西部崛起,中部及东北地区塌陷”特征。东部地区呈现“两极化”现象。② 中国老龄事业基本处于低水平发展阶段,空间分布由西南-东北辐射递减模式转变为显著的“中部塌陷”式,形成一条由北向南的低值集聚带,纵贯中国中部,与区域经济发展存在错位关系。③ 负向错位区主要分布在黄河、长江中上游地区,正向错位区主要集中在东部沿海、长城以北等地区。空间错位强度存在显著的地域差异性,其中西部地区尤为显著。④ 老龄事业发展水平的动态变化是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、政府政策和行政导向及产业结构的时空分异对其产生正向影响。市场经济规模扩大和人口老龄化未对老龄事业发展起推动作用,与理论预期不符。家庭规模小型化的倒逼作用不显著。

关键词: 积极老龄化, 老龄事业发展水平, 时空演化, 空间错位, 中国

Abstract:

In this study, an evaluation index system is proposed to describe the development level of the undertakings for the elderly under the theoretical framework of active aging in China, which consists of three components of health, participation, and security. Taking 31 provinces in the mainland of China as the research objects, this paper quantitatively analyzes the temporal changes, spatial pattern, spatial mismatch, and factors affecting the development of undertakings for the elderly from 2004 to 2016, with the methods of traditional mathematical statistics, gravity coupling models, spatial mismatch method, and econometric model. The results showed that: (1) The aging undertakings have rapidly developed. Although regional differences have gradually been narrowed, regional imbalances cannot be ignored. The overall level of aging undertakings in eastern China is higher than that of central, western, and northeastern China. This phenomenon is prominently accompanied with an increase in the western region and a decline in the central and northeastern regions of China, as well as polarization of the eastern region in aging undertakings; (2) The development of China's aging undertakings was basically at a low-level. The spatial distribution has shifted from a southwest-northeast radiative diminishing pattern to a significant "central collapse" pattern. There is a low-value agglomeration from north to south, running across the central region of China, which is closely related with the regional economic development; (3) Forward dislocation regions are mainly concentrated in the coastal regions and areas north of the Great Wall. In addition, negative dislocation areas are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of both the Yellow and the Yangtze rivers. Several significant regional differences were observed, particularly in China's western region; (4) The variations of development levels in aging undertakings result from multifactor interactions. The level of economic development, the government policy, the administrative guidance, and spatio-temporal differentiation of the market mechanism have positive influences on the evolution of the patterns of aging undertakings. The expansion of market economy and the aging of population have not yet played a role in promoting the development of undertakings for the aged, which is not in line with theoretical expectations. The reverse effect of household size miniaturization is not significant.

Key words: active aging, the level of the aging undertakings, temporal and spatial evolution, spatial mismatch, China