中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180095

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于“积极老龄化”理论框架,从健康、参与和保障三大维度构建中国老龄事业发展水平评价指标体系。以中国大陆31个省（自治区、直辖市）为研究对象,运用数理统计、重心和空间重叠性、空间错位分析和计量经济模型等方法,分析了2004—2016年中国老龄事业发展水平的时序变化、空间格局、错位特征及其影响机制。结果表明：① 2004—2016年,中国老龄事业发展水平整体快速增长,区域差异逐渐缩小,但区域失衡特征不容忽视。东部地区整体水平高于中部、西部及东北地区,并伴有“西部崛起,中部及东北地区塌陷”特征。东部地区呈现“两极化”现象。② 中国老龄事业基本处于低水平发展阶段,空间分布由西南-东北辐射递减模式转变为显著的“中部塌陷”式,形成一条由北向南的低值集聚带,纵贯中国中部,与区域经济发展存在错位关系。③ 负向错位区主要分布在黄河、长江中上游地区,正向错位区主要集中在东部沿海、长城以北等地区。空间错位强度存在显著的地域差异性,其中西部地区尤为显著。④ 老龄事业发展水平的动态变化是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、政府政策和行政导向及产业结构的时空分异对其产生正向影响。市场经济规模扩大和人口老龄化未对老龄事业发展起推动作用,与理论预期不符。家庭规模小型化的倒逼作用不显著。

关键词: 积极老龄化, 老龄事业发展水平, 时空演化, 空间错位, 中国

Abstract:

In this study, an evaluation index system is proposed to describe the development level of the undertakings for the elderly under the theoretical framework of active aging in China, which consists of three components of health, participation, and security. Taking 31 provinces in the mainland of China as the research objects, this paper quantitatively analyzes the temporal changes, spatial pattern, spatial mismatch, and factors affecting the development of undertakings for the elderly from 2004 to 2016, with the methods of traditional mathematical statistics, gravity coupling models, spatial mismatch method, and econometric model. The results showed that: (1) The aging undertakings have rapidly developed. Although regional differences have gradually been narrowed, regional imbalances cannot be ignored. The overall level of aging undertakings in eastern China is higher than that of central, western, and northeastern China. This phenomenon is prominently accompanied with an increase in the western region and a decline in the central and northeastern regions of China, as well as polarization of the eastern region in aging undertakings; (2) The development of China's aging undertakings was basically at a low-level. The spatial distribution has shifted from a southwest-northeast radiative diminishing pattern to a significant "central collapse" pattern. There is a low-value agglomeration from north to south, running across the central region of China, which is closely related with the regional economic development; (3) Forward dislocation regions are mainly concentrated in the coastal regions and areas north of the Great Wall. In addition, negative dislocation areas are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of both the Yellow and the Yangtze rivers. Several significant regional differences were observed, particularly in China's western region; (4) The variations of development levels in aging undertakings result from multifactor interactions. The level of economic development, the government policy, the administrative guidance, and spatio-temporal differentiation of the market mechanism have positive influences on the evolution of the patterns of aging undertakings. The expansion of market economy and the aging of population have not yet played a role in promoting the development of undertakings for the aged, which is not in line with theoretical expectations. The reverse effect of household size miniaturization is not significant.

Key words: active aging, the level of the aging undertakings, temporal and spatial evolution, spatial mismatch, China

曾通刚, 赵媛. 中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(6): 1497-1511.

Tonggang ZENG, Yuan ZHAO. Spatial and temporal evolution of the undertakings for the elderly and spatial mismatch of economy in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(6): 1497-1511.

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系统层	准则层	指标层	单位	权重
老龄事业发展水平	健康维度	X₁人均城镇基本医疗保险基金支出	元/人	0.0855
		X₂基本医疗保险覆盖率	%	0.0296
		X₃每千老人拥有医疗卫生技术人员数	个/千人	0.0474
		X₄每十万老人拥有老年医院数	个/十万人	0.1478
	参与维度	X₅老年学校入学率	%	0.1021
		X₆老年活动中心（室、站）千人覆盖率	个/千人	0.0571
		X₇每万老人拥有老年协会数	个/万人	0.0519
	保障维度	X₈城镇职工基本养老保险待遇	万元/人	0.0782
		X₉每千老年人口养老服务床位数	万元/人	0.0558
		X₁₀每万老人法律援助救助案件数	件/万人	0.1454
		X₁₁每千名老人对应老龄机构事业费支出	元/千人	0.1401
		X₁₂城乡养老保险参保率	%	0.0591

年份	中国老龄事业发展指数
年份	全国水平	最大值	最小值	泰尔系数
2004	0.1244	0.2567（沪）	0.0568（皖）	0.0765
2010	0.1944	0.3911（京）	0.1006（桂）	0.0674
2016	0.2788	0.5776（京）	0.1411（吉）	0.0501

年份	老龄事业重心		经济重心		错位距离S（km）
年份	经度	纬度	经度	纬度	错位距离S（km）
2004	112.25°E	34.97°N	114.46°E	34.39°N	253.87
2010	111.73°E	34.31°N	113.77°E	34.61°N	229.11
2016	111.13°E	33.69°N	113.32°E	34.32°N	253.21

地区	2004年	2010年	2016年	地区	2004年	2010年	2016年
北京	2.3091	0.8406	0.0339	湖北	-0.7853	-0.0331	0.5353
天津	2.1111	2.0776	2.6006	湖南	-0.6028	-0.0342	0.4896
河北	0.8818	0.4832	0.2386	广东	1.6335	1.6523	1.4815
山西	-2.5681	-1.4499	-1.2597	广西	-0.4060	0.2822	-0.4336
内蒙古	-0.0856	2.5975	1.6060	海南	0.8601	0.1313	-0.2916
辽宁	1.0063	1.2918	0.5094	重庆	-0.3363	-0.1373	0.9697
吉林	-1.9517	1.0133	1.4292	四川	-0.4534	-1.0218	-0.8561
黑龙江	-0.2483	-0.0799	0.0008	贵州	-0.6414	-0.7299	-1.2511
上海	6.0183	1.7412	0.7897	云南	-1.1019	-1.8340	-2.9316
江苏	1.5097	2.1972	1.9526	西藏	-0.4110	-0.6399	-1.4106
浙江	1.3906	-0.2570	0.0663	陕西	-0.8487	-0.2530	-0.0560
安徽	0.3068	0.0918	-0.0529	甘肃	-1.1455	-0.6870	-1.5668
福建	0.1654	-0.1257	0.0792	青海	-1.0391	-0.3626	-0.9987
江西	-0.8219	-1.1271	-0.5033	宁夏	-1.8758	-2.8713	-0.5787
山东	-0.5934	-0.0513	0.7918	新疆	-2.4501	-2.2015	-1.4164
河南	0.1734	-0.5038	0.0329

检验项	统计值	P值
F检验1（混合效应）	3.0211	0.0002
F检验2（随机效应）	1.0947	0.3772
Hausman检验	9.0409	0.2497
LM检验	17.867	0.0005