中国种植业专业化发展的时空格局研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180353

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1978—2017年中国种植业发展的专业化测算,本研究对中国种植业发展的时空特征进行了回顾和评价,创新性地运用聚类分析的方法对中国种植业的发展阶段进行划分,总结了各阶段中国种植业的发展特征。研究发现：① 各省区市种植业的专业化系数FR_i逐步增强;相较于全国平均水平,东北地区和东部地区的专业化系数FR_i具有较好的基础和较快的增速,中部地区和西南地区则刚好相反,西北地区的基础及增速与全国平均水平持平。② 6种农产品的地方化系数FI_j均获得不同程度的增长,粮食、棉花和油料增长较快,糖料、水果和蔬菜增长较慢;糖料为高度地方化农产品,棉花和水果长期表现为高度地方化,粮食、蔬菜和油料属于低度地方化农产品。③ 相较于农业总产值10.66%的年均增速,中国种植业发展的国家专业化系数F_mn保持平稳而缓慢的增长趋势,年均增长仅2.83%。④ 可将1978—2017年中国种植业发展划分为四个阶段,即1978—1983年的第一阶段为奠定制度基础阶段、1984—1995年的第二阶段为稳步复苏和扩张阶段、1996—2014年的第三阶段为市场化改革和产业化发展深入阶段、2015—2017年的第四阶段为追求全面发展的改革创新阶段。本研究对于梳理改革开放以来中国种植业发展具有重要的指导意义,可为种植业专业化相关政策的制定提供参考依据。

关键词: 种植业, 专业化, 时空格局, 阶段划分, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the specialized calculation of planting industry development from 1978 to 2017 in China, the paper reviews and evaluates the temporal and spatial features of Chinese planting industry, divides the development of Chinese planting industry into several stages by using cluster analysis creatively, and summarizes the development characteristics of each stage. The main contents and results are summed up as follows: (1) The specialization coefficient of the planting industry (FR_i) increases gradually in each Province (Municipality, Municipality); compared to the national average of specialization coefficient, Northeast China and Eastern China with higher value of specialization coefficient also grow faster, Central China and Southeast China are just the opposite, and Northwest China closes to the foundation and growth rate of national average. (2) The planting areas for sugar crop, grain, cotton, vegetable, oil crop and fruit accounts for more than 91% of the total planting area of crops in China, so it is representative and feasible to choose these 6 agricultural crops as the research object. Location coefficient of the six agricultural products(FI_j) increases in different degrees, while grain, cotton and oil crop grow faster and sugar crop, fruit, vegetable more slowly. Sugar crop is highly localized agricultural product, while cotton and fruit are characterized by highly localized agricultural products long term; grain, vegetable and oil crop belongs to agricultural product with low localization. (3) National specialization coefficient of planting industry (F_mn) keeps steady and slow growth with the average annual growth of 2. 83%, comparing with the total annual agricultural output value about 10. 66%. (4) The characteristics of policy system and emphases of Chinese planting industry are different in each development stage. It could be divided into four stages of planting industry development in China from 1978 to 2017, namely, the first stage from 1978 to 1983 characterized by laying the institutional foundation, the second stage from 1984 to 1995 characterized by steady recovery and expansion, the third stage from 1996 to 2014 with the in-depth phase of market-oriented reform and industrialization, the fourth stage from 2015 to 2017 accompanied by reforming and innovation of pursuing all-round development. This paper, meaning important guiding significance for sorting out Chinese planting industry development since the reform and opening-up, can provide reference for the development of relevant policies for specialization of planting industry.

Key words: planting industry, specialization, spatio-temporal pattern, stage division, China

王武林, 余翠婵, 税伟, 吴聘奇, 王前锋. 中国种植业专业化发展的时空格局研究[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(5): 1265-1279.

Wulin WANG, Cuichan YU, Wei SHUI, Pinqi WU, Qianfeng WANG. Research on spatio-temporal pattern of specialized development of Chinese planting industry[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(5): 1265-1279.

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一级指标	二级指标（变量）	一级指标	二级指标（变量）	一级指标	二级指标（变量）
专业化	F_mn（X₁）	规模	农作物总播种面积（X₈）	效率	农业总产值占比（X₁₅）
	糖料FI_j（X₂）		糖料产量（X₉）		农业总产值增长率（X₁₆）
	粮食FI_j（X₃）		粮食产量（X₁₀）		农产品生产价格指数（X₁₇）
	棉花FI_j（X₄）		棉花产量（X₁₁）		农村固定资产投资占GDP的比重（X₁₈）
	蔬菜FI_j（X₅）		蔬菜产量（X₁₂）		农民人均农作物总播种面积（X₁₉）
	油料FI_j（X₆）		油料产量（X₁₃）		农民人均农业机械总动力（X₂₀）
	水果FI_j（X₇）		水果产量（X₁₄）		农民人均纯收入（X₂₁）

地区	1978年	1986年	1994年	2002年	2010年	2017年	总变化率（%）	年均增长率（%）
东北地区	0.075	0.107	0.152	0.149	0.180	0.193	157.33	2.45
中部地区	0.057	0.060	0.081	0.093	0.102	0.112	96.49	1.75
东部地区	0.064	0.077	0.111	0.185	0.182	0.231	260.94	3.35
西北地区	0.060	0.082	0.142	0.171	0.178	0.194	223.33	3.05
西南地区	0.064	0.076	0.094	0.114	0.108	0.153	139.06	2.26
中国平均	0.063	0.077	0.112	0.147	0.151	0.182	188.89	2.76

地方化	糖料	粮食	棉花	蔬菜	油料	水果
高度地方化	1978—2017年	―	1979—2017年	―	―	1978年,1984—1993年,1995—2013年,2015—2017年
中度地方化	―	―	1978年	―	―	1979—1983年,1994年,2014年
低度地方化	―	1978—2017年	―	1978—2017年	1978—2017年	―

公因子	特征值	解释比例（%）	总解释比例（%）
Fac_1	13.943	66.397	66.397
Fac_2	2.324	11.067	77.465
Fac_3	1.544	7.351	84.816
Fac_4	1.088	5.182	89.998

指标	变量	共性方差	Fac_1 因子载荷	Fac_2 因子载荷	Fac_3 因子载荷	Fac_4 因子载荷
F_mn	X₁	0.967	0.916	0.214	0.276	-0.082
糖料FI_j	X₂	0.905	0.876	0.343	0.141	-0.010
粮食FI_j	X₃	0.945	0.870	0.382	0.162	-0.130
棉花FI_j	X₄	0.827	0.606	0.296	0.604	-0.089
蔬菜FI_j	X₅	0.700	0.209	0.608	0.534	-0.054
油料FI_j	X₆	0.940	0.822	0.387	0.325	-0.098
水果FI_j	X₇	0.885	0.283	-0.021	0.891	-0.103
农作物总播种面积	X₈	0.946	0.765	0.515	0.213	-0.221
糖料产量	X₉	0.811	0.873	0.018	0.219	0.028
粮食产量	X₁₀	0.909	0.851	0.259	0.335	-0.082
棉花产量	X₁₁	0.805	0.889	-0.094	-0.039	0.061
蔬菜产量	X₁₂	0.978	0.894	0.339	0.204	-0.147
油料产量	X₁₃	0.935	0.922	0.165	0.204	-0.126
水果产量	X₁₄	0.967	0.873	0.430	0.140	-0.028
农业总产值占比	X₁₅	0.916	-0.929	0.104	-0.202	0.004
农业总产值增长率	X₁₆	0.870	0.007	-0.188	-0.091	0.909
农产品生产价格指数	X₁₇	0.888	-0.120	-0.017	-0.047	0.934
农村固定资产投资占GDP的比重	X₁₈	0.885	-0.064	-0.931	0.037	0.109
农民人均农作物总播种面积	X₁₉	0.858	0.312	0.865	0.067	-0.090
农民人均农业机械总动力	X₂₀	0.986	0.900	0.384	0.158	-0.061
农民人均纯收入	X₂₁	0.976	0.702	0.584	0.368	-0.081