论土地利用转型潜力及其评价的理论框架

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180421

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

积极推进土地利用转型潜力及其评价研究,是丰富和完善土地利用转型理论的重要途径。通过拓展土地利用潜力概念,对土地利用转型潜力定义、内涵、形成机制与评价的理论框架进行了探讨。研究认为,① 作为土地利用及LUCC的结果,土地利用转型具有土地利用形态“变化”和“可调控”的重要特征,这是土地利用转型潜力形成与释放的前提;② 土地利用转型潜力是指为适应区域发展综合需求,通过采用相应技术、政策等手段,在特定转型阶段所能实现最优土地利用形态与土地利用形态现状的差异;③ 土地利用转型潜力以基于“强效”“快速”政策调整及工程技术措施的土地利用形态调整和基于“自发土地利用”的土地利用转型引导为形成机制;④ 应以系统论和动态视角为基础,通过分析土地利用转型过程与机理,构建基于土地利用转型情景模拟的土地利用转型潜力评价理论框架。研究取得的成果和结论具备进一步激发土地利用转型理论研究及其在土地管理决策等方面积极作用的价值。

关键词: 土地利用转型, 土地利用变化, 土地利用转型潜力, 评价框架

Abstract:

It is essential to promote efforts on land use transition to carry out definition, theories and approaches for land use transition potential estimation. This paper made a systematic review on land use, land use and cover change (LUCC), land use transition and their interactions. Discussion mainly focused on the definition, and connotation and creation mechanisms of land use transition potential was then claimed based on the expanded land use capacity. Further, this work developed a theoretical framework for estimating land use transition potential by land use transition modelling with land use benefits as driving forces, and resource and environment carrying capacity as restricting factors. It is declared that, (1) land use transition, as the outcome of land use, obtained the characteristic, namely changing and controlling land use morphology, provided primaries materials for promoting land use transition potential. (2) Land use transition potential refers to the differences between the current land use morphology and optimal one derived in special land use transition adjusted by certain policies and techniques following the regional development goals from a long-term perspective. Obviously, land use transition potential is virtually an expansion and further definition of land use capacity. (3) Land use transition potential could be made by adjusting the land use morphology using policies and techniques that are usually efficient and competent dealing with this issue. And it can also be promoted by the initiatives concerning guidance for land use transition. They compose the framework for land use transition potential estimation. (4) Moreover, it can make full use of the mechanisms of land use transition to model land use transition and thus determine the land use potential from a dynamic perspective. In the study, the framework was developed based on land use transition modelling taking into account driving mechanisms by land use transition benefits and restrictions by resources and environmental carrying capacity. Though issues especially including approaches for optimizing land use transition patterns, reconstruction and models for land use transition mechanisms under different management scenarios remain a challenge for use, results and conclusions derived from this study may promote researches on land use transition theory and its applications in land-use management decisions.

Key words: land use transition, land use change, land use transition potential, estimation framework

胡守庚, 童陆亿, 龙花楼. 论土地利用转型潜力及其评价的理论框架[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(6): 1367-1377.

Shougeng HU, Luyi TONG, Hualou LONG. Land use transition potential and its assessment framework[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(6): 1367-1377.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

表3

参考文献 40

[1]	Turner B L, Lambin E F, Reenberg A.The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences, 2007, 104(52): 20666-20671. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0704119104
[2]	Perring M P, De Frenne P, Baeten L, et al.Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: The importance of land-use legacies. Global Change Biology, 2016, 22(4): 1361-1371. doi: 10.1111/gcb.2016.22.issue-4
[3]	Lambin E F, Baulies X, Bockstael N, et al.Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC): Implementation strategy. IGBP Report No.48 and IHDP Report No.10, 1999.
[4]	Ojima D S, McConnell W J, Moran E, et al. The future research challenge: The global land project. In: Canadell J, Pataki D, Pitelka L. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2007: 313-322.
[5]	Bryan B A, Nolan M, McKellar L, et al. Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050. Global Environmental Change, 2016, 38: 130-152. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.03.002
[6]	Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P.Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, 108(9): 3465-3472. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1100480108
[7]	Cervera T, Pino J, Marull J, et al.Understanding the long-term dynamics of forest transition: From deforestation to afforestation in a Mediterranean landscape (Catalonia, 1868-2005). Land Use Policy, 2019, 80: 318-331. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.006
[8]	Platt R H.Land Use and Society: Geography, Law, and Public Policy. Washington: Island Press, 2014.
[9]	龙花楼. 论土地利用转型与土地资源管理. 地理研究, 2015, 34(9): 1607-1618.
	[Long Hualou.Land use transition and land management. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(9): 1607-1618.]
[10]	Mather A S.The forest transition. Area, 1992, 24(4): 367-379.
[11]	Grainger A.The forest transition: An alternative approach. Area, 1995, 27(3): 242-251.
[12]	龙花楼. 土地利用转型: 土地利用/覆被变化综合研究的新途径. 地理与地理信息科学, 2003, 19(1): 144-149.
	[Long Hualou.Land use transition: A new integrated approach of land use/cover change study. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2003, 19(1): 144-149.]
[13]	宋小青, 吴志峰, 欧阳竹. 1949年以来中国耕地功能变化. 地理学报, 2014, 69(4): 435-447.
	[Song Xiaoqing, Wu Zhifeng, Ouyang Zhu.Changes of cultivated land function in China since 1949. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(4): 435-447.]
[14]	曲艺, 龙花楼. 基于开发区利用与产出视角的区域土地利用隐性形态综合研究: 以黄淮海地区为例. 地理研究, 2017, 36(1): 61-73.
	[Qu Yi, Long Hualou.The integrated research on regional land use recessive morphology from the perspectives of exploitation and output: The case of the Huang-Huai-Hai Region. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(1): 61-73.]
[15]	Long Hualou, Heilig G K, Li Xiubin, et al.Socio-economic development and land-use change: Analysis of rural housing land transition in the transect of the Yangtse River, China. Land Use Policy, 2007, 24(1): 141-153. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2005.11.003
[16]	龙花楼. 区域土地利用转型与土地整理. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(2): 133-140. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6301.2003.02.004
	[Long Hualou.Land rehabilitation and regional land use transition. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(2): 133-140.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6301.2003.02.004
[17]	龙花楼. 论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(2): 131-138. doi: 10.11821/xb201204012
	[Long Hualou.Land use transition and rural transformation development. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(2): 131-138.] doi: 10.11821/xb201204012
[18]	宋小青. 论土地利用转型的研究框架. 地理学报, 2017, 72(3): 471-487.
	[Song Xiaoqing.Discussion on land use transition research framework. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(3): 471-487.]
[19]	朱凤凯, 柯新利, 张凤荣. 转型期农村宅基地边际化的内涵、特征与诊断指标. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(5): 549-556.
	[Zhu Fengkai, Ke Xinli, Zhang Fengrong.Characteristics and diagnostic criteria of rural residential land marginalization in the urban-rural transformation development period in China. Progress in Geography, 36(5): 549-556.]
[20]	Ge Dazhuan, Long Hualou, Zhang Yingnan, et al.Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China. Land Use Policy, 2018, 70: 94-105. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.10.010
[21]	刘永强, 廖柳文, 龙花楼, 等. 土地利用转型的生态系统服务价值效应分析: 以湖南省为例. 地理研究, 2015, 34(4): 691-700.
	[Liu Yongqiang, Liao Liuwen, Long Hualou, et al.Effects of land use transitions on ecosystem services value: A case study of Hunan province. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(4): 691-700.]
[22]	McRae S G, Burnham C P. Land Evaluation. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1981.
[23]	赵冬玲, 何珊珊, 杨建宇, 等. 基于限制因素和热点分析的耕地整治质量潜力测算. 农业机械学报, 2017, 48(2): 158-164.
	[Zhao Dongling, He Shanshan, Yang Jianyu, et al.Qualitative potential calculation for arable land consolidation based on limiting factors and hot spot analysis. Transactions of The Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery, 2017, 48(2): 158-164.]
[24]	费罗成, 程久苗, 王秉建, 等. 耕地集约利用研究进展与展望. 土壤, 2009, 41(5): 696-702.
	[Fei Luocheng, Cheng Jiumiao, Wang Bingjian, et al.Advances and prospects of intensive cultivated land use researches. Soils, 2009, 41(5): 696-702.]
[25]	甄江红, 成舜, 郭永昌, 等. 包头市工业用地土地集约利用潜力评价初步研究. 经济地理, 2004, 24(2): 250-253.
	[Zhen Jianghong, Cheng Shun, Guo Yongchang, et al.Studies on the assessment for land use intensification potentiality of industrial field in Baotou city. Economic Geography, 2004, 24(2): 250-253.]
[26]	Walker R T.Land use transition and deforestation in developing countries. Geographical Analysis, 1987, 19(1): 18-30.
[27]	龙花楼, 李秀彬. 区域土地利用转型分析: 以长江沿线样带为例. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(2): 144-149. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2002.02.003
	[Long Hualou, Li Xiubin.Analysis of regional land use transition: A case study in transect of the Yangtze River. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(2): 144-149.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2002.02.003
[28]	Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P.Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change. Land Use Policy, 2010, 27(2): 108-118. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003
[29]	Zhu Fengkai, Zhang Fengrong, Ke Xinli.Rural industrial restructuring in China's metropolitan suburbs: Evidence from the land use transition of rural enterprises in suburban Beijing. Land Use Policy, 2018, 74: 121-129. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.09.004
[30]	欧雄, 冯长春, 李方. 城镇土地利用潜力评价: 以广州市天河区为例. 地域研究与开发, 2007, 26(5): 100-104.
	[Ou Xiong, Feng Changchun, Li Fang.Urban land capacity assessment: A case study of Tianhe district, Guangzhou city. Areal Research and Development, 2007, 26(5): 100-104.]
[31]	傅伯杰. 土地潜力评价的类型与方法. 国土与自然资源研究, 1990, (2): 29-32.
	[Fu Bojie.Tudi qianli pingjiade leixing yu fangfa. Territory & Natural Resources Study, 1990, (2): 29-32.]
[32]	Liu Yansui, Fang Fang, Li Yuheng.Key issues of land use in China and implications for policy making. Land Use Policy, 2014, 40(1): 6-12. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.03.013
[33]	童陆亿, 胡守庚, 杨剩富. 土地整治区耕地质量重估方法研究. 中国土地科学, 2015, 29(2): 60-66.
	[Tong Luyi, Hu Shougeng, Yang Shengfu.A new method for arable land quality reevaluation in land consolidation areas. China Land Science, 2015, 29(2): 60-66.]
[34]	Lapola D M, Martinelli L A, Peres C A, et al.Pervasive transition of the Brazilian land-use system. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 27-35. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2056
[35]	Redo D J, Millington A C.A hybrid approach to mapping land-use modification and land-cover transition from MODIS time-series data: A case study from the Bolivian seasonal tropics. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2011, 115: 353-372. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2010.09.007
[36]	Long Hualou, Qu Yi.Land use transitions and land management: A mutual feedback perspective. Land Use Policy, 2018, 74: 111-120. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.03.021
[37]	Li Yuheng, Wu Wenhao, Liu Yansui.Land consolidation for rural sustainability in China: Practical reflections and policy implications. Land Use Policy, 2018, 74: 137-141. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.003
[38]	Chen Ruishan, Ye Chao, Cai Yunlong, et al.The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China: Past, present and trend. Land Use Policy, 2014, 40(4): 101-110. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.10.003
[39]	Jürgenson E.Land reform, land fragmentation and perspectives for future land consolidation in Estonia. Land Use Policy, 2016, 57: 34-43. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.030
[40]	杨忍, 徐茜, 李璐婷. 珠三角地区城乡空间转型过程及影响因素.地理研究, 2016, 35(12): 2261-2272.
	[Yang Ren, Xu Qian, Li Luting.Spatial urban-rural transformation and its driving factors in the Pearl River Delta region. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(12): 2261-2272.]

特征类型	土地利用潜力	土地利用转型潜力
研究需求	破解特定土地问题。	服务区域发展（破解系列/综合问题）。
评价思路	通过对土地利用限制性因子优化的静态假设和推导,预判土地利用最优形态并估算土地利用潜力。	通过全面分析土地利用转型机制,模拟“土地-社会经济-生态环境”耦合系统在不同人力干预情境下的动态演化过程及与之对应的土地利用转型结果,并以最优土地利用转型结果为基础测算土地利用转型潜力。
技术要求	可经“经验性预判”或推导实现潜力评价。	须进行动态模拟,才能获得潜力评价结果。
结果特征	主要受情境假设和“预判”的合理性影响,结果通常具有较强的不确定性。	结果的准确性主要受土地利用转型机理及模拟所采用数据与模型的完备性影响,不确定性相对较弱。

类型	机制	典型案例	特征
土地利用形态改造类	通过工程、技术手段,快速、直接地改变土地利用形态。	土地整治（土地开发/平整、土壤改良、“三旧改造”等）。	高效,结果与目标的匹配程度高;干扰性强、技术成本高。
土地利用活动干预类	采用强制性措施或手段,快速遏制或促成特定土地利用活动与土地利用转型。	土地征收、城中村改造、规划（土地利用规划、控制性详规）等。	强制性、政府/管理部门主导、不确定性较小;易引发冲突。
土地利用活动引导类	利用财政补贴、价格调整等措施,以效益为驱动,引导土地利用决策与行为,间接影响土地利用转型。	退耕还林、土地流转、良种补贴、提升农产品价格等。	基于引导的自发行为;时滞性与不确定性大。

类型	影响途径	主要因素	特征
影响土地利用转型方向及模式选取的因素	以政府为主导,通过制定发展战略、政策,引导/约束土地利用转型方向与模式。	国家/区域战略：生态文明、城乡一体化、新型城镇化、美丽乡村等。	对土地利用转型的影响是全面、深入的,但调整、改动的可行性较低。
影响土地利用转型方向及模式选取的因素	以政府为主导,通过制定发展战略、政策,引导/约束土地利用转型方向与模式。	地方政策：土地利用规划、城市规划、乡村规划、生态保护区等。	对区域性土地利用转型具有较强的影响力,可根据需求进行小幅调整。
影响土地利用转型过程的因素	通过影响土地利用使用者（经营者）土地利用决策与实践行为,间接影响土地利用转型过程与结果。	资源禀赋：自然（土地、能源）、人文（人力、市场）资源状况。	不可流动的资源可控性差,人文资源可通过合理方式进行培育。
		自然地理条件：土壤、坡度、海拔、气温、降水、光照等。	土壤、坡度可经工程/技术手段完善;干预气温、降水等因素的可行性差。
		生态环境：水、大气等环境。	人工干预或调整的可行性差。
		社会经济条件：居民收入、农产品价格等。	可通过政策或市场引导,实现优化与调控。
		科学技术：土地利用/整治技术、材料科学等。	取决于相应的学科与技术发展的客观状况。
		土地利用条件：水利、交通等设施完备程度、机械化程度等。	可利用工程/技术措施、政策等手段进行完善。
		土地经营者综合治理能力：学历、年龄、土地经营技巧等。	可通过教育/培训、政府扶持等途径完善。