中国城镇人口“镇化”发展的时空分异

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180497

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将中国人口城镇化细分为城镇人口“镇化”与“城化”,采用“镇化水平”和“镇化贡献率”两个指标,从不同空间尺度及主体功能区视角,系统分析1982-2015年中国城镇人口镇化发展的时空分异及影响因素。主要结论包括：① 中国的城镇人口“镇化水平”和“镇化贡献率”在不断提升。2015年镇化水平为41.8%,2010-2015年期间镇化贡献率为55.1%。② 中国城镇人口镇化呈现显著的时空分异特征。镇化主导型县市主要分布在中西部地区,占全国国土面积的70%以上;城化主导型县市主要集中分布在沿海城市群地区,在全国国土面积中所占比例较小。③ 展望未来,中国城镇人口的镇化贡献率和镇化水平将稳中趋缓,应加强探索出基于主体功能区域分异的差异化小城镇发展模式。

关键词: 城镇化, 小城镇, 镇化水平, 镇化贡献率, 中国

Abstract:

In this paper, the urbanization of China's population was subdivided into "townization" and "cityization", and the indicators of "townization level" and "townization contribution rate" were adopted. From the perspective of different spatial scales and major function oriented zones, this paper conducted the system analysis on space-time disparity and influencing factors of the development of urban population in China from 1982 to 2015. The main conclusions included: (1) China's urban population's "townization level" and "townization contribution rate" continued to increase. In 2015, townization level was 41.8%, and the townization contribution rate was 55.1% during the period from 2010 to 2015. (2) The urbanization of China's urban population presented significant spatial and temporal differences. The townization-dominated counties and cities were mainly distributed in the central and western regions of China, accounting for more than 70% of the country's total land area. The cityization-dominated counties and cities were mainly concentrated in coastal urban agglomerations, and had a relatively small proportion in the national land area. (3) Looking into the future, China's urban population's "townization level" and "townization contribution rate" would increase steadily but slower and slower. It was necessary to strengthen the exploration of a differentiated development model of small towns based on the differentiation of major function oriented zones.

Key words: urbanization, small towns, townization level, townization contribution rate, China

刘盛和, 王雪芹, 戚伟. 中国城镇人口“镇化”发展的时空分异[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(1): 85-101.

Shenghe LIU, Xueqin WANG, Wei QI. Spatial-temporal difference of "townization" of urban population in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(1): 85-101.

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历次人口普查	年份	镇人口统计口径	精度评价
第三次人口普查	1982	镇辖区全部人口,包括辖区内的农业人口	采用镇辖管行政范围内的全部人口,统计口径偏大
第四次人口普查	1990	不设区的市所辖的镇和县所辖的镇的居委会人口	无街道建制而设居委会的县级市人口计入镇人口,未统计设区城市的镇人口,总体上统计口径偏小
第五次人口普查	2000	① 市辖区人口密度在1500人/km²以下的区和不设区的市管辖的其他镇,镇政府驻地的村级地域内的全部人口;镇政府驻地城区建设延伸到的村级地域内的全部人口;镇管辖的其他居委会地域内的全部人口。② 县管辖的镇,镇政府驻地的村级地域内的全部人口;镇政府驻地城区建设延伸到的村级地域内的全部人口;镇管辖的其他居委会地域内的全部人口。③ 城镇地区以外的常住人口3000人以上的工矿区、开发区、旅游区、科研单位、大专院校等特殊地区按镇划定	未统计人口密度超过1500人/km²的市辖区镇人口,统计口径偏小
第六次人口普查	2010	① 在城区以外的县人民政府驻地和其他镇,政府驻地的实际建设连接到的居民委员会和其他区域的人口。② 与政府驻地的实际建设不连接,且常住人口在3000人以上的独立的工矿区、开发区、科研单位、大专院校等特殊区域及农场、林场的场部驻地人口	采用国家2008年批复的《统计上划分城乡的规定》,考虑全部镇的实体空间,相对合理。其中,不设区市城关镇属于城区

不同界定口径	包括	不包括	代表性文献或部门
宽口径	县级市城关镇;县城关镇;一般建制镇;集镇	——	吴康等;纪泽民
中口径	县城关镇;一般建制镇	县级市城关镇;集镇	第六次人口普查;国家统计局
窄口径	一般建制镇	县级市城关镇;县城关镇;集镇	住房和城乡建设部

年份	小城镇个数（个）	镇人口（万人）	小城镇平均人口规模（万人/个）	镇化水平（%）
1982	2523	4740	1.88	29.6(*)
1990	11805	8373	0.71	28.2(^)
2000	17132	16614	0.97	36.2(^)
2005	19938	21955	1.10	38.2(^)
2010	19152	26625	1.39	39.7
2015	20154	32212	1.60	41.8

年份	城镇人口年均增长量（万人）	镇人口年均增长量（万人）	镇化贡献率（%）	备注
1982-1990	1710	454	26.6	统计口径差异较大,数据可信度较差
1990-2000	1618	824	50.9	数据可信度一般
2000-2005	2322	1068	46.0	数据可信度一致
2005-2010	1903	934	49.1	数据可信度尚可
2010-2015	2027	1117	55.1	统计口径一致,数据可信度高
1990-2015	1898	954	50.3	数据可信度尚可

组合关系	2000-2005年	2010-2015年
镇化主导型+镇化推动型	安徽、江西、广西、四川、贵州、甘肃（6个）	河北、安徽、江西、河南、湖南、广西、四川、贵州（8个）
城化主导型+镇化推动型	河北、辽宁、吉林、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、重庆、青海（9个）	山西、内蒙古、吉林、江苏、福建、山东、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆（10个）
城化主导型+城化推动型	北京、天津、山西、内蒙古、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、海南、云南、陕西、宁夏、新疆（15个）	北京、天津、辽宁、黑龙江、上海、浙江、湖北、广东、海南、重庆、陕西（11个）
镇化主导型+城化推动型	西藏（1个）	云南、西藏（2个）