1961—1987年与1988—2014年辽宁省气候区划界线变化及可能气候成因

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180628

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于同一区划方法、指标体系,使用1961—2014年辽宁省52站气象观测资料,分析辽宁省气温、气候区划指标、范围及界线的变动特征。结果表明：辽宁省年均气温在1988年发生一次突变,突变后气温开始显著上升;≥10 ℃积温日数比较显著地响应气温突变,而干燥指数、7月平均气温变化不显著。在空间分布上区划指标值均存在不同程度的变化。① 全省≥10 ℃积温日数均出现增加,但在中西部地区显著增加;② 在盘锦-抚顺一线以北（南）,气候总体呈不显著变湿（干）趋势;③ 7月平均气温呈缓慢上升趋势。区划范围及界线位置出现更加显著地变化：① 暖温带范围主要向北向东扩展,中温带向东收缩;② 半湿润区范围主要向北向西扩展,半干旱区向西北方向收缩,湿润区范围基本不变;③ Tb范围显著向北向东扩展,Ta范围向北向东收缩。在此基础上分析了气候格局变化的可能气候成因,发现突变后≥10 ℃积温日数期间500 hPa高度场增加与4月和10月东亚冬季风减弱,4—10月东北冷涡持续天数增加和7月500 hPa高度场增加,可能分别是温度带,Tb区、Ta区和半湿润区、半干旱区变化的原因。

关键词: 辽宁省, 成因分析, 气候区划, 东亚夏季风, 东北冷涡

Abstract:

Based on the identical classification methodologies and criteria system, using the daily observations for 52 meteorological stations during the period 1961-2014, and the characteristics of the temperature, climatic regionalization indicators, area and boundaries changes, the results suggest that the temperature experienced obviously an abrupt change around 1988 in Liaoning province, and after the change, the climate became warmer significantly. The days with daily accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ responds to the change observably, but the annual aridity index and the July mean temperature do not. The regionalization indicators have some changes to various degree in terms of spatial distribution: (1) the number of days with daily accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ increased in the whole province, but more significantly in the central and western parts; (2) climate becomes wet (dry) insignificantly to north (south) of Panjin-Fushun; (3) the July mean temperature alse rises insignificantly. Location of regionalization areas and boundaries have a more significant change: (1) the boundaries of the warm temperate - middle temperate zone mainly shift northward and eastward, and the area of the warm temperate zone (meso-temperate zone) has increased (decreased); (2) the boundary of semi-arid and sub-humid regions mainly shift northward and westward, and the area of semi-arid regions (sub-humid regions) has decreased (increased), but humid regions remains unchanged. (3) The boundary of Tb and Ta mainly shifts northward and eastward, and the area of Ta (Tb) has decreased (increased). On this basis, possible causes for spatial changes of the climatic pattern are analyzed. After the change, 500 hPa height field increased corresponding to the days with daily accumulated temperature above 10℃ and East Asian winter monsoon index increase in April and October may lead to changes of temperature zones. Weakness of increased duration lasting days of Northeast cold vortex from April to September is favorable to changes of semi-arid and sub-humid regions. Increasing 500 hPa height field in July is favorable to changes of Ta and Tb.

Key words: Liaoning province, cause analysis, climatic regionalization, East Asian summer monsoon, Northeast cold vortex

王涛, 王乙舒, 崔妍, 敖雪, 侯依玲, 沈玉敏, 王小桃. 1961—1987年与1988—2014年辽宁省气候区划界线变化及可能气候成因[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(4): 794-806.

Tao WANG, Yishu WANG, Yan CUI, Xue AO, Yiling HOU, Yumin SHEN, Xiaotao WANG. The climate regionalization variation and its possible climate causes in Liaoning province over 1961-1987 and 1988-2014[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(4): 794-806.

图/表 13

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

参考文献 27

[1]	李山, 孙美淑, 张伟佳, 等. 中国大陆1961—2010年间气候舒适期的空间格局及其演变. 地理研究, 2016, 35(11): 2053-2070.
	[Li Shan, Sun Meishu, Zhang Weijia, et al.Spatial patterns and evolving characteristics of climate comfortable period in the mainland of China: 1961-2010. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(11): 2053-2070.]
[2]	喻忠磊, 唐于渝, 张华, 等. 中国城市舒适性的空间格局与影响因素. 地理研究 2016, 35(9): 1783-1798.
	[Yu Zhonglei, Tang Yuyu, Zhang Hua, et al.Spatial pattern and driving factors of Chinese urban amenities. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(9): 1783-1798.]
[3]	陈咸吉. 中国气候区划新探. 气象学报, 1982, 40(1): 35-47. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1982.004
	[Chen Xianji.A new approach to the climate division of China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1982, 40(1): 35-47.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb1982.004
[4]	丘宝剑. 农业气候区划及其方法. 北京: 科学出版社, 1987.
	[Qiu Baojian.Agricultural Climate Regionalization and Its Methods. Beijing: Science Press, 1987.]
[5]	毕宝贵, 孙涵, 毛留喜, 等. 中国精细化农业气候区划: 方法与案例. 北京: 气象出版社, 2014.
	[Bi Baogui, Sun Han, Mao Liuxi, et al.Detailed Agricultural Climate Zoning in China: Methods and Cases. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2014.]
[6]	车秀芬, 张京红, 黄海静, 等. 海南岛气候区划研究. 热带农业科学, 2014, 34(6): 61-70.
	[Che Xiufen, Zhang Jinghong, Huang Haijing, et al.Climate regionalization in Hainan Island. Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture, 2014, 34(6): 61-70.]
[7]	郑景云, 卞娟娟, 葛全胜, 等. 中国1951-1980年及1981-2010年的气候区划. 地理研究, 2013, 32(6): 987-997
	[Zheng Jingyun, Bian Juanjuan, Ge Xuansheng, et al.The climate regionalization in China for 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(6): 987-997.]
[8]	缪启龙, 丁园圆, 王勇. 气候变暖对中国亚热带北界位置的影响. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 634-642.
	[Miu Qilong, DingYuanyuan, Wang Yong. Impact of climate warming on the northern boundary of sub-tropical zone of China. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(3): 634-642.]
[9]	沙万英, 邵雪梅, 黄玫. 20 世纪 80 年代以来中国的气候变暖及其对自然区域界线的影响. 中国科学: D辑, 2002, 32(4): 317-326.
	[Sha Wanying, Shao Xuemei, Huang Mei.Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s. Science in China: Series D, 2002, 32(4): 317-326.]
[10]	吴绍洪, 刘文政, 潘韬, 等. 1960-2011年中国陆地表层区域变动幅度与速率. 科学通报, 2016, 61(19): 2187-2197.
	[Wu Shaohong, Liu Wenzheng, Pan Tao, et al.Amplitude and velocity of the shifts in the Chinese terrestrial surface regions from 1960 to 2011. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2016, 61(19): 2187-2197.]
[11]	王菱, 谢贤群, 李运生, 等. 中国北方地区 40 年来湿润指数和气候干湿带界线的变化. 地理研究, 2004, 23(1): 45-53.
	[Wang Ling, Xie Xianqun, Li Yunsheng, et al.Changes of humid index and borderline of wet and dry climate zone in northern China over the past 40 years. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(1): 45-53.]
[12]	杨建平, 丁永建, 陈仁升. 近50 年中国干湿气候界线波动及其成因初探. 气象学报, 2003, 61(3): 364-374. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.035
	[Yang Jianping, Ding Yongjian, Chen Rensheng.The fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundary and its causal analyses in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003 , 61(3): 364-374.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.035
[13]	郑景云, 尹云鹤, 李炳元. 中国气候区划新方案. 地理学报, 2010, 65(1): 3-12.
	[Zheng Jingyun, Yin Yunhe, Li Bingyuan.A new scheme for climate regionalization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1): 3-12.]
[14]	王树廷. 关于日平均气温稳定通过各级界限温度初终日期的统计方法. 气象, 1982: 8(6): 29-30.
	[Wang Shuting.Statistical methods for the beginning and ending dates of daily average temperature at all levels steady above demarcation temperature. Meteorological Monthly, 1982, 8(6): 29-30.]
[15]	Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al.Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1998: 15-86.
[16]	Yin Y H, Wu S H, Zheng D, et al.Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China. Agric Water Manage, 2008, 95: 77-84. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2007.09.002
[17]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	[Wei Fengyi.Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology of ModernClimate. Beijing: China Meteorological, 2007.]
[18]	Rodionov S N. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 2004, 31(9): L09204.1-L09204.4.
[19]	Rodionov S N.The problem of red noise in climate regime shift detection. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33: L12707. doi: 10.1029/2006GL025904
[20]	Marsaglia G, Tsang W, Wang J.Evaluating Kolmogorov's distribution. Journal of Statistical Software. 2003, 8(18): 1-4.
[21]	朱艳峰. 一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数. 气象学报, 2008, 66(5): 781-788. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2008.071
	[Zhu Yanfeng.An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to description the Chinese mainland winter temperature changes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2008, 66(5): 781-788.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2008.071
[22]	武炳义, 杨琨. 从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用. 气象学报, 2016, 74(5): 683-696.
	[Wu Bingyi, Yang Kun.Roles of Arctic sea ice and the preceding summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in the atmospheric circulation anomalies of 2011/2012 and 2015/2016 winters. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2016, 74(5): 683-696.]
	张庆云, 陈烈庭. 近 30年来中国气候的干湿变化. 大气科学, 1991, 15(5): 73-81.
	[Zhang Qingyun, Chen Lieting.Variations of dryness and wetness in China during 1951-1980. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1991, 15(5): 73-81.]
[23]	杨建平, 丁永建, 陈仁升, 等. 近50a中国北方降水量与蒸发量变化 . 干旱区资源与环境, 2003, 17(2): 6-11.
	[Yang Jianping, Ding Yongjian, Chen Rensheng, et al.Variations of precipitation and evaporationin North China in recent 40 years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2003, 17(2): 6-11]
[24]	廉毅, 沈柏竹, 高枞亭. 关于确定东亚夏季风强度指数的探讨. 气象学报, 2004, 62(6): 782-789. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2004.074
	[Lian Yi, Shen Bozhu, Gao Zongting.An exploration on the determination of East Asia summer monsoon index. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2004, 62(6): 782-789.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2004.074
[25]	廉毅, 沈柏竹, 高枞亭, 等.东亚夏季风在中国东北区建立的标准、日期及其主要特征分析. 气象学报. 2003, 61(5): 548-559. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.055
	[Lian Yi, Shen Bozhu, Gao Zongting, et al.The study of the on set criterion and the date of East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast China and its main characteristic analysis. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 61(5): 548-559.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.055
[26]	胡开喜, 陆日宇, 王东海. 东北冷涡及其气候影响. 大气科学, 2011, 35(1): 179-191. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.15
	[Hu Kaixi, Lu Riyu, Wang Donghai.Cold vortex over Northeast China and its climate effect. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(1): 179-191.] doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.15
[27]	孙力, 郑秀雅, 王琪. 东北冷涡的时空分布特征及其与东亚大型环流系统之间的关系. 应用气象学, 1994, 5(3): 297-303.
	[Sun Li, Zheng Xiuya, Wang Qi.The climatological characteristics of Northeast Cold Vortex in China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1994, 5(3): 297-303.]

温度带	首要指标	辅助指标
温度带	日平均气温稳定≥ 10 ℃的日数（天）	1月平均气温（℃）
中温带	100~170	-30至-12~-6
暖温带	170~220	-12~-6至0

干湿状况	主要指标	辅助指标
干湿状况	年干燥度	年降水量（mm）
湿润	≤1.00	>600~650（辽宁山地）
半湿润	1.00~1.50	400~600（辽宁）
半干旱	1.50~4.00	200~250至400~500