京津冀农业劳动力及其老龄化研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180639

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

京津冀地区作为中国经济发展的重要区域之一,其农村地区农业劳动力的减少与老龄化已成为关系农业、农村与农民利益的重要问题。为此,本文对京津冀地区县域农业劳动力数量与其老龄化的时空演变进行了分析,探讨了农业劳动力数量与其老龄化之间的耦合关系,剖析了乡村振兴背景下京津冀不同县域农业劳动力及其老龄化的特征,提出不同类型未来农业劳动力的发展方向,拓宽了乡村地理学的研究视角。结果表明：① 京津冀地区农业劳动力数量整体呈下降趋势,北京周边和东部沿海地区农业劳动力数量下降趋势明显;② 农业劳动力的年龄整体呈老龄化趋势,北部地区老龄化程度最为严重;③ 京津冀县域农业劳动力数量与农业劳动力老龄化程度的耦合特征可划分为慢速-轻度老龄化、慢速-重度老龄化、快速-深度老龄化、快速-中度老龄化四大类型区。

关键词: 农业劳动力老龄化, 时空变化, 耦合关系, 京津冀

Abstract:

The Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region is one of the important areas of China's economic development. The agricultural labor force reduction and aging in its rural areas have become an important issue related to agriculture, rural areas and farmers’benefits. Therefore, in this paper we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of agricultural labor force and its aging in each county of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, discuss the coupling relationship between the agricultural labor force and its aging, and analyze the agricultural labor force and the characteristics of its aging in different counties in the study area under the background of rural revitalization. And we also present the development direction about different types of agricultural labor in the future. The results show that: 1) the agricultural labor force in the study area is declining, particularly in the coastal areas and the eastern part of the region and around Beijing. 2) The proportion of aging agricultural labor in these areas is increasing, and the proportion of agricultural labor force over 60 years old to the total agricultural population increased by 3.93% from 2000 to 2010. The results show that the number of young and middle-aged people in rural areas is declining. The spatial difference between high and low aging population is obvious. The proportion of agricultural labor force in the counties near the city of Beijing is high. The proportion of the agricultural labor population is decreasing with the increase of distance to the downtown area. 3) The change rate of agricultural labor force and the change rate of the proportion of agricultural laborers over 60 years old to the total agricultural population in the areas are generally the same, indicating that the rate of change of agricultural labor force in the areas and its rate of aging have correlation to a certain degree. 4) Based on the analysis of labor-age elasticity index, the coupling characteristics of agricultural labor force and aging between 2000 and 2010 can be divided into four types: a) the slow-slight aging dominated by traditional agriculture, b) the slow-severe aging dominated by early-stage migrant workers, c)the rapid-deep aging dominated by dual economy between urban and rural areas, d) the rapid-moderate aging dominated by part-time workers. Through the analysis, it is sure that we can get a better understanding of the distribution and division of agricultural labor force, and rationally formulate policies and measures, and correctly guide the flow of agricultural labor in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future. At the same time, the results will further our knowledge about agricultural labor force in the study of rural geography.

Key words: aging of agricultural labor force, temporal and spatial evolution, coupling relation- ship, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

郝薇, 王鹏飞. 京津冀农业劳动力及其老龄化研究[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(11): 2766-2777.

HAO Wei, WANG Pengfei. Research on the agricultural labor force and aging of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(11): 2766-2777.

图/表 10

图1

表1

京津冀县域农业劳动力数量变化"

	平均值（X_i）（人）	标准偏差（ $σ x$ ）（人）	变动系数
2000年 2005年 2010年 2015年	112000 109230 101020 93563	51000 52379 49189 45576	0.455 0.479 0.486 0.487

表1

图2

表2

京津冀县域60岁以上农业劳动力占农业总人口的比重"

	平均值（X_i）（%）	标准偏差（ $σ x$ ）（%）	变动系数
2000年	5.50	1.30	0.236
2010年	9.43	2.47	0.261
2015年	19.16	3.45	0.180

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表3

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类型区	县域个数	劳动力数量变化率平均值(%)	老龄化变化率平均值 (%)	LCR	ACR	LAEC	劳动力-年龄耦合特征	类型
Ⅰ类	4	5.60	4.31	>0	<5.5	1.29	农业劳动力减少慢, 老龄化程度增速慢	传统农业主导型慢速-轻度老龄化
Ⅱ类	5	9.99	8.51	>0	>5.5	1.16	农业劳动力减少慢, 老龄化程度增速快	早期外出务工主导型慢速-重度老龄化
Ⅲ类	114	-24.99	3.15	<0	<5.5	-7.93	农业劳动力减少快, 老龄化程度增速慢	城乡二元经济冲击型快速-深度老龄化
Ⅳ类	24	-15.81	6.77	<0	>5.5	-2.34	农业劳动力减少快, 老龄化程度增速快	兼职主导型快速-中度老龄化