1985年以来中国大陆沿海集装箱港口体系位序-规模分布及其网络联系

doi:10.11821/dlyj020181050

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

21世纪以来,中国大陆众多沿海城市纷纷转型为港口城市,港口区域化态势明显,港口发展呈现新的竞合关系。运用位序-规模法则与复杂网络模型,从规模结构、航运网络两方面刻画1985年以来中国大陆沿海集装箱港口体系的区域化特征。结果表明：① 港口体系日趋完善,位序-规模分布更加明显;发展演化呈低级均衡,明显集中化及相对分散化三个阶段,围绕世界级枢纽港形成区域集聚和群内扩散的空间格局。② 港口航运网络小世界特征得到强化,不同类型港口航线网络特性变化差异明显。枢纽港以广度上升深度下降、中转功能上升为主;大型港口变化较为复杂,超过一半的大型港口腹地引致特征明显,中转功能较弱;地方港呈现两极分化态势,大部分港口在航线网络深度、广度与辐射能力等多方面得到提升,少部分港口则明显萎缩。③ 以班轮航线为载体的物流网络推动港口区域化内在联系更加紧密,轴-辐特征得到强化,整个网络效率大为提升。从社会网络分析软件（UCINET）呈现的最强联系航线看,沿海集装箱航运网络已由局部网络转变为统一的双层轴-辐网络,全国性的港口网络联系水平大幅提升,区域航运网络与港口群存在空间错位而非一一对应。

关键词: 港口区域化, 位序-规模法则, 复杂网络, 轴-辐空间组织, 空间错位

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, many coastal cities of Chinese mainland have been transformed into port cities, with obvious regional characteristics of ports and new competitive and cooperative relations in port development. This paper describes the regionalization characteristics of China's coastal container port system since 1985 from the aspects of scale structure and shipping network by using the rank-size rule and complex network model. The results show that: (1) The port system is becoming perfect and the scale structure is in a good order. The evolution of port system can be divided into three stages: low-level equilibrium, obvious centralization and relative decentralization. Container transport is forming regional agglomeration and intra-group diffusion around world-class hub ports. (2) The small-world characteristics of the port shipping network have been strengthened, and the network characteristics of different types of port routes have changed significantly. The hub port has declined in depth and the transfer function has been rising;The changes of large-scale ports are relatively complicated, more than half of the large-scale ports in the hinterland have obvious characteristics and weak transit function. Local ports are polarized, and most of the ports are diversified in the depth, breadth and radiation capacity of the route network. and a few of ports have shrunk in many ways. (3) The inherent characteristics of port regionalization are more evident in the logistics network with liner routes as the carrier. The hub-spoke characteristics of the network are strengthened, and the transport efficiency of the whole port network is greatly improved. From the perspective of the strongest connection of shipping network based on UCINET, the coastal container port network transformed from a structure of local networks coexisting with several ports pairs to a double-layer hub-spoke structure, which has upgrade the development of port linkage. Regional shipping network and port group have space dislocation rather than one-to-one correspondence.

Key words: port regionalization, rank-size law, complex network, hub-spoke structure, space dislocation

郭建科, 何瑶, 王绍博, 吴陆陆. 1985年以来中国大陆沿海集装箱港口体系位序-规模分布及其网络联系[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(4): 869-883.

Jianke GUO, Yao HE, Shaobo WANG, Lulu WU. Rank-size distribution changes and transportation network connections of the coastal container port system in Chinese mainland since 1985[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(4): 869-883.

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年份	拟合方程	标度区范围	当年港口总数量(个)	判定系数R²	无标度区范围比例(%)	年份	拟合方程	标度区范围	当年港口总数量	判定系数R²	无标度区范围比例(%)
1985	lnP(k)=-1.5357x+3.3744	1~7	7	0.9048	100	2000	lnP(k)=-1.8918x+7.7413	1~37	37	0.919	100
1986	lnP(k)=-0.9839x+3.1729	1~5	7	0.9029	71.20	2001	lnP(k)=-1.9389x+7.992	1~40	40	0.9181	100
1987	lnP(k)=-0.9382x+3.2361	1~5	8	0.9488	62.50	2002	lnP(k)=-1.8518x+8.1043	1~40	40	0.9327	100
1988	lnP(k)=-1.4767x+3.9056	1~11	11	0.9386	100	2003	lnP(k)=-1.8858x+8.4383	1~41	41	0.9261	100
1989	lnP(k)=-1.3776x+3.9948	1~11	11	0.9182	100	2004	lnP(k)=-2.031x+8.9544	1~44	44	0.9059	100
1990	lnP(k)=-1.4496x+4.2846	1~13	13	0.9209	100	2005	lnP(k)=-2.0061x+9.236	1~45	45	0.9149	100
1991	lnP(k)=-1.4609x+4.6231	1~16	16	0.9172	100	2006	lnP(k)=-1.9374x+9.3005	1~44	45	0.9103	97.80
1992	lnP(k)=-1.2646x+4.6246	1~16	16	0.903	100	2007	lnP(k)=-1.9769x+9.5357	1~44	45	0.9052	97.80
1993	lnP(k)=-1.3259x+4.94	1~16	16	0.9154	100	2008	lnP(k)=-1.921x+9.5771	1~44	45	0.914	97.80
1994	lnP(k)=-1.2505x+5.113	1~16	19	0.9395	84	2009	lnP(k)=-1.9037x+9.5165	1~44	45	0.9111	97.80
1995	lnP(k)=-1.1179x+5.2752	1~15	20	0.9191	75	2010	lnP(k)=-1.8358x+9.5685	1~44	45	0.9184	97.80
1996	lnP(k)=-1.1885x+5.5883	1~16	20	0.9251	80	2011	lnP(k)=-1.7386x+935272	1~43	45	0.9189	95.60
1997	lnP(k)=-1.3156x+6.0076	1~17	20	0.9063	85	2012	lnP(k)=-1.6963x+9.5913	1~44	46	0.9028	95.60
1998	lnP(k)=-1.4252x+6.3546	1~17	20	0.9152	85	2013	lnP(k)=-1.6673x+9.6167	1~44	47	0.9044	93.60
1999	lnP(k)=-1.6087x+6.9312	1~30	30	0.9398	100	2014	lnP(k)=-1.6381x+9.6253	1~44	47	0.9023	93.60
						2015	lnP(k)=-1.6179x+9.634	1~44	47	0.9044	93.60

变化类型		枢纽港	大型港口	地方港
深度上升	广度上升	厦门港（0.4, 5）	福州港（0.7, 9）;虎门港（3.1, 20）; 中山港（2.2, 9）;珠海港（1.3, 19）; 嘉兴港（0.1, 2）;江门港（1, 1）; 唐山港（0.2, 3）	常州港（2.4, 5）;黄骅港（1, 1）; 惠州港（1.4, 8）;茂名港（2, 2）; 莆田港（1.5, 1）;钦州港（3.2, 14）; 台州港（3.4, 5）;泰州港（2.3, 4）; 湛江港（0.4, 14）
深度上升	广度下降	深圳港（6.1, -2）		扬州港（0.45, -1）
深度下降	广度上升	大连港（-9, 3）; 广州港（-2.6, 5）; 宁波港（-7.1, 4）; 上海港（-2.7, 6）; 天津港（-10.6, 3）	海口港（-0.5, 2）;日照港（-3.6, 8）; 苏州港（-7.8, 10）;营口港（-1.3, 9）	无锡港（-0.2, 8）
	广度下降	青岛港（-8.1, -1）	连云港（-0.8, -1）;南京港（-10.1, -6）; 泉州港（-2.0, -1）;丹东港（-1.3, -3）; 汕头港（-4.2, -1）;烟台港（-5.8, -5）; 南通港（-8.2, -4）	锦州港（-0.5, -2）;威海港（-3.8, -1）;温州港（-1.5, -1）;秦皇岛港（-1.7, -5）
	广度不变			镇江港（-4.6, 0）;防城港（-1.2, 0）

变化类型		枢纽港	大型港口	地方港
中转功能上升	辐射功能上升			台州港（0.0245, 2.65）湛江港（0.0245, 0.62）
中转功能上升	辐射功能降低	上海港（0.0332, -0.31）; 广州港（0.095, -0.25）; 深圳港（0.0067, -0.31）; 厦门港（0.0148, -0.24）; 大连港（0.0001, -0.36）; 宁波港（0.0318, -0.26）	苏州港（0.0236,-0.71）; 营口港（0.0024,-0.14）
中转功能降低	辐射功能降低	天津港（-0.0533, -0.37）; 青岛港（-0.059, -0.36）	泉州港（-0.0288,-0.12）; 烟台港（-0.0862,-1.21）; 汕头港（-0.03,-0.57）;
无中转功能	辐射功能上升		福州港（0.28）;虎门港（3.25）; 中山港（2.18）;珠海港（1.69）; 江门港（0.85）;唐山港（0.08）	黄骅港（0.85）;莆田港（0.78）; 惠州港（1.86）;茂名港（1.58）; 钦州港（2.26）;常州港（2.4）; 扬州港（0.73）;泰州港（2.19）; 无锡港（0.19）
无中转功能	辐射功能下降		日照港（-1.03）;南通港（-1.38）; 海口港（-0.38）;嘉兴港（-0.05）; 南京港（-1.83）;丹东港（-1.4）; 连云港港（-0.55）	锦州港（-0.15）;秦皇岛港（-1.24）; 威海港（-0.92）;温州港（-0.86）; 镇江港（-0.91）;防城港（-1.59）

排序	2005年		2015年
排序	港口	数量	港口	数量
第一类	青岛港、上海港、天津港、宁波港、深圳港	5	宁波港、上海港、深圳港	3
第二类	广州港、厦门港、大连港	3	青岛港、大连港、厦门港、天津港、广州港	5
第三类	福州港、温州港、烟台港、连云港港等	26	苏州港、湛江港、营口港、泉州港、湛江港等	34