耦合视角下长三角地区城镇化协调度的时空特征及交互机制

doi:10.11821/dlyj020181167

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着中国城镇化发展的转型,测度城镇化过程中人口、土地和经济三者发展的耦合协调关系,探索其演化过程的时空动态规律,已成为人文地理学研究新型城镇化的重要科学问题。通过构建耦合协调度模型,在测度近16年来长三角地区城镇化进程中各子系统的协调发展水平的基础上,运用空间变差函数,LISA时空跃迁等方法,分析长三角地区城镇化耦合协调的交互过程,探索其城镇化协调空间集聚的形成机制。结果表明：① 伴随长三角地区城镇化水平的显著提升,“人口、土地和经济”总体和两两耦合协调度演化均呈稳步提升的趋同现象;② 长三角地区城镇化耦合协调度空间集聚程度逐年增强,空间关联作用范围不断扩大,形成了“一极独大、三角核心、周边低平”的空间形态;③ 从各个城市的城镇化耦合水平跃迁路径来看,大多呈协同增长态势,表明城市的整体耦合协调度具有明显的路径依赖和空间锁定特征;④ 长三角地区城镇化耦合协调水平从稳定和均衡→极化集聚状态的演变动力主要来自于土地-经济的交互作用,而从极化→均衡状态的演变动力更多地来自于人口-土地的交互作用。城镇化协调度的交互过程及机制研究为新型城镇化发展和长三角城市群构建提供了理论依据和调控方向。

关键词: 城镇化, 耦合协调度, LISA时间路径, 长三角地区

Abstract:

With the transformation of China's urbanization, how to measure the coupling and coordination relationship between population, land and economy in the process of urbanization, and explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of its evolution process, has become an important scientific issue in the study of new urbanization in human geography. By constructing the model of coupling coordination degree, based on the coordinated development level of each subsystem in the process of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 16 years, this paper analyzes the interaction process of urbanization coupling coordination, and explores the coupling mechanism of the formation of urbanization coordination space agglomeration in the study region by using spatial variogram, LISA time-space transition and other methods. The results show that: (1) with the remarkable improvement of population, land and economic urbanization level in the region, the evolution of the overall and the coupling coordination of population-land urbanization, land-economy urbanization and population-economy urbanization degree shows a steady convergence phenomenon; (2) the spatial agglomeration degree of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization is increasing year by year, and the scope of spatial correlation has been expanding continuously, basically forming a spatial pattern of "one pole alone, triangle core, peripheral low-level"; (3) from the perspective of the urbanization coupling level transition path of each city, most of the cities show a synergistic growth trend, indicating that the overall coupling coordination degree has obvious path dependence and space locking characteristics; (4) the evolution of urbanization coupling coordination level from the stability and equilibrium to polarization agglomeration state mainly comes from the interaction of land-economy, and the evolutionary power from polarization to equilibrium state comes more from population-land interaction. The study of the interaction process and mechanism of urbanization coordination provides a theoretical basis and direction for the construction and coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Key words: urbanization, coupling coordination degree, LISA time path, Yangtze River Delta region

范擎宇, 杨山, 胡信. 耦合视角下长三角地区城镇化协调度的时空特征及交互机制[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(2): 289-302.

FAN Qingyu, YANG Shan, HU Xin. Temporal and spatial characteristics and interaction process of urbanization coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region from the perspective of coupling[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(2): 289-302.

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	年份	变程(km)	块金系数C₀/（C₀+C）	拟合模型	决定系数R²
耦合协调度	2001	701.400	0.908	Exponential	0.7610
	2009	840.900	0.823	Exponential	0.7400
	2016	928.500	0.911	Exponential	0.7080

	年份	全方向		南-北		东北-西南		东-西		东南-西北
	年份	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²
耦合协调度	2001	1.670	0.811	0.973	0.553	1.617	0.682	1.841	0.142	1.767	0.540
	2009	1.744	0.790	1.487	0.470	1.752	0.406	1.753	0.273	1.736	0.601
	2016	1.562	0.675	1.627	0.491	1.563	0.499	1.732	0.310	1.694	0.590

演化状态	演化类型	城市	回归系数			Adj R²	C
演化状态	演化类型	城市	X₁	X₂	X₃	Adj R²	C
稳定	LL→LL、HH→HH、LH→LH、HL→HL	宿迁、阜阳、六安、池州、黄山、金华、衢州、丽水、台州、温州、扬州、镇江、常州、南通、马鞍山、无锡、上海、苏州、嘉兴、舟山、滁州、合肥、芜湖、宣城、杭州、淮北	0.278^*** （68.092）	0.481^*** （84.338）	0.251^*** （45.951）	0.998	0.001
均衡→极化	LL→HL、LL→LH、HH→HL、HH→LH	连云港、徐州、淮安、盐城、绍兴、宿州、南京、湖州	0.249^*** （33.747）	0.514^*** （84.832）	0.266^*** （36.086）	0.999	-0.009
极化→均衡	HL→LL、LH→LL、HL→HH、LH→HH	泰州、宁波、亳州、蚌埠、淮南、铜陵、安庆	0.356^*** （32.497）	0.298^** （14.265）	0.311^*** （20.156）	0.993	0.010