渤海海峡跨海通道建设前后区际城市群物流网络结构的时空演变

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190061

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着网络社会不断崛起,城市空间内涵发生了明显改变,已经成为人文地理学研究的新的重要内容。通过改进重力模型,基于有向加权网络分析方法以及BRIM算法,探讨了渤海海峡跨海通道建设前后山东半岛城市群与辽中南城市群物流网络结构的演变过程,研究发现：①渤海通道建设主要影响城市低等级物流联系,对高等级网络的影响局部集中在辽中南南部和山东半岛东部且自身物流规模较大的城市之间,其中大连、沈阳以及青岛、烟台、潍坊、济南等少数重点城市之间垄断了大量的物流资源;② 通道建设促进了“双通道双向合成流”格局形成,在各自城市群内部,物流结构将出现陆、海方向上的分离性变化,大连、烟台作为通道门户城市的地位逐渐确立;③ 首位离心流、向心流格局在演变过程中均表现出渤海通道指向性,仅有沈阳⇄济南、沈阳⇄淄博、大连⇄青岛、鞍山⇄潍坊等少数城市之间保持了常态化互惠关系,但互惠程度并不对称,辽中南地区城市的物流输出规模普遍高于具有互惠关系的山东半岛城市,前者表现为典型的“双核-边缘”结构,后者具有多极网络化特征;④ 通道建设前后山东半岛城市群的物流城市类型保持稳定,辽中南地区的向心流主导型城市则不断向铁岭、抚顺、本溪等东北部城市蔓延;⑤ 大连在渤海通道建设后首次与烟台、青岛等山东半岛城市群东部城市实现了同一子群结构衔接,总体上优化了山东半岛与辽中南城市群的物流空间格局。

关键词: 区际城市群, 有向加权, 物流网络, 时空演变, 渤海海峡跨海通道

Abstract:

With the rise of the network society, the connotation of urban space has changed significantly, and it has become a new important content in the study of human geography. In this paper, the gravity model is improved, based on the method of directed weighted network analysis and BRIM, and the evolution of the logistics network of the Shandong Peninsula and the Central and Southern Liaoning urban agglomerations are discussed before and after the construction of the Bohai Strait cross-sea channel. We found that: (1) After the construction of the cross-sea channel, urban low-level logistics links will be mainly affected, and the impact on high-level networks will be concentrated on cities that have large logistics scales and located in the southern part of central and southern Liaoning and the eastern part of Shandong Peninsula. Among them, a large quantity of logistics resources are monopolized by a few key cities such as Dalian, Shenyang, Qingdao, Yantai, Weifang and Jinan. (2) The “two-channel two-way synthetic flow” will be formed with the construction of the channel. Within the respective urban agglomerations, changes in the logistics structure in the land and sea directions have begun to emerge, and further the status of Dalian and Yantai as gateway cities will be established. (3) The pattern of primary centrifugal/centripetal flow has directivity towards Bohai channel in the evolution process. Normalized reciprocal relationships are maintained among a few cities such as Shenyang⇄Jinan, Shenyang⇄Zibo, Dalian⇄Qingdao and Anshan⇄Weifang, but the degree of reciprocity of urban logistics is asymmetric. In terms of cities with reciprocal relationships, the logistics output of cities in central and southern Liaoning is generally higher than that of Shandong Peninsula. The former is characterized by a typical “dual-core-edge” structure, and the latter by multipolarity. (4) Before and after the construction, the types of logistics cities in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration remained stable. The centripetal-flow-oriented cities in the central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration continued to spread. (5) After the construction, Dalian will be classified into subgroup 3 firstly, while the sub-group structure of the inter-regional urban agglomeration will be improved by the Bohai Strait cross-sea channel together with Yantai and Qingdao, which optimized the logistics spatial pattern of the Shandong Peninsula and the Central and Southern Liaoning urban agglomerations.

Key words: inter-regional urban agglomeration, directed weighted, logistics network, spatial-temporal evolution, Bohai Strait cross-sea channel

王泽东, 张小林, 孙东琪, 孙海燕. 渤海海峡跨海通道建设前后区际城市群物流网络结构的时空演变[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(3): 585-600.

WANG Zedong, ZHANG Xiaolin, SUN Dongqi, SUN Haiyan. Spatial-temporal evolution of the logistics network structure of inter-regional urban agglomeration before and after the construction of the Bohai Strait cross-sea channel[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(3): 585-600.

图/表 6

表1

区际城市群物流预测方法集成"

方法集成	模型公式	具体内涵	补充解释
指标中长期预测	—	选取1990—2015年相关省市GDP、人口、产业、交通运输量等13项指标,通过Linear、Quadratic、Logarthmic、Logistic模型对数据进行分时段多次拟合预测,选取最优方案	参照世界银行、国家卫计委、中国工程院等权威部门的预测数据以及城市群实地访谈数据调整优化^[31]。特别指出,研究按照中方案进行
公路、铁路输出物流量指数模型构建	$r p - i E = d pi d pj s ij b ∑ j = 1 n d pi d pj s ij b$	$r p - i E$ 表示 $p$ 指标输出物流量指数; $d pi$ 、 $d pj$ 为i、j城市 $p$ 指标的输出物流密度;S_ij表示城市i与城市j之间的距离;b为距离摩擦系数;n为城市数量。因距离参数设置对结果具有较高敏感度,将S_ij（0~2000 km）与指数b（0.5~3.0）建立多组对应关系以提升模型精度	区际之间物流交流量的多寡受到两地经济、人口、产业、距离等诸多因素的综合影响,本文基于渤海通道建设的未来设想,借助改进重力模型以参量替代的方式进行预测。物流出入具有相对性,在此仅考虑输出物流
计算城市物流输出总量	$L g E = wy / x$	$L g E$ 为不同城市的公路输出物流总量;w为公路货运总量;y为限额以上商品销售总额创造的GDP;x为某城市的GDP	GDP、公路货运量与限额以上商品销售总额存在显著正相关关系,计算限额以上商品销售总额创造的GDP占GDP的比重,一定程度上可以替代某城市公路输出物流总量占公路物流总量的比重（铁路数据国家已作统计）
计算城市物流OD数据	$S g (t) ij E = L g (t) i E r g (t) ij E$	$S g (t) ij E$ 为城市i输出到城市j的公（铁）路物流量; $L g (t) i E$ 代表城市i的公（铁）路输出物流总量; $r g (t) ij E$ 代表城市i到其他城市的公（铁）路输出物流量指数	城市之间的公（铁）路物流交流具有方向性,分别为城市i→城市j以及城市j→城市i的物流量,其中方向判别来自 $r g (t) ij E$ （ $r p - i E$ 的平均值）
交通可达性测度	—	运用ArcGIS成本距离加权算法计算可达性水平^[26,31]	城市i与城市j在渤海通道建设前后的时间成本及变化率
计算2050年经行渤海通道的物流量	$K g t ij E = S g (t) ij E δ$	$K g t ij E$ 为城市i经过渤海通道到达城市j的物流量; $δ$ 是参照山东省客货流量抽样调查并根据不同时间节省成本设置的物流比率^[30]	渤海通道主要影响区际物流的流量流向,并不影响区际潜在的物流总量^[31]。各城市经行渤海通道的物流量重点考虑城市i、j之间的时间成本以及物流比率的空间分异

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

图4

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城市	济南	青岛	淄博	东营	烟台	潍坊	威海	日照	总计
沈阳	0.00	66.45	25.97	11.34	63.40	23.93	25.10	28.24	244.43
大连	70.84	141.86	59.23	31.62	126.24	93.15	53.99	51.29	628.22
鞍山	36.37	44.49	34.33	16.52	38.97	95.75	15.89	17.12	299.45
抚顺	0.00	15.85	2.29	3.93	18.53	9.59	7.82	8.18	66.19
本溪	1.74	23.91	28.89	13.06	33.65	18.28	13.76	12.37	145.68
丹东	7.28	19.16	8.16	4.04	21.24	10.68	8.68	9.07	88.30
营口	19.48	21.67	19.50	7.96	19.25	47.55	8.20	11.29	154.90
辽阳	12.10	14.69	6.56	6.94	17.27	40.77	7.05	8.67	114.05
盘锦	0.00	16.91	6.88	2.95	19.75	31.76	6.78	11.65	96.67
铁岭	0.00	15.89	1.98	3.72	19.32	8.98	7.69	8.59	66.18
总计	147.80	380.88	193.79	102.08	377.61	380.46	154.97	166.46	1904.07