金融资本市场与区域制造业演化路径选择

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190267

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于对2004—2016年中国海关贸易库中各城市制造业发展数据分析,从演化经济地理的视角出发讨论金融资本市场如何通过影响制造业的演化路径选择来影响制造业演化升级。实证研究结果发现：以银行为主的信贷融资市场和以投资机构为主的股权融资市场对于制造业演化路径选择的影响作用不同。整体来看,信贷融资市场主要通过强化制造业的路径依赖来促进制造业的演化升级,而股权融资市场的发展则强化了制造业通过路径突破实现演化升级的能力。进一步分析发现,由于金融资本市场的发展具有空间溢出效应,地方制造业演化路径的选择不仅会受到本地金融资本市场发展的影响,还会受到区域中心城市金融资本市场发展的影响。对东、中、西部的分析发现,在东部地区,制造业演化路径选择受本地金融资本市场发展的影响更大。而在中西部地区,制造业的演化路径选择受到区域中心城市金融资本市场溢出效应的影响更大。

关键词: 金融资本市场, 制造业, 路径依赖, 路径突破

Abstract:

Drawing on the data of Chinese manufacturing firms during 2004-2016 compiled by the Chinese Customs Trade Statistics, this paper explores that how different financial markets improve the development of manufacturing industries through influencing their industrial evolution. Empirical results indicate that the roles of credit markets and equity markets in influencing regional industrial evolution are different. Overall, credit markets can enhance path dependence trend of industrial evolution, while equity markets have a significant effect on enhancing industrial path-breaking development. Moreover, due to the spillover effects of financial markets, not only the local financial markets but also the financial markets in regional central cities can affect local industrial evolution. In eastern China, local financial markets play a more important role in promoting local industrial evolution than financial markets in regional central cities, while in central and western China, local industrial evolution is more affected by financial markets in regional central cities.

Key words: financial market, manufacturing industries, path dependence, path-breaking

杨博飞, 朱晟君. 金融资本市场与区域制造业演化路径选择[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(10): 2345-2360.

YANG Bofei, ZHU Shengjun. Financial markets and regional industrial evolution[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(10): 2345-2360.

图/表 9

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

2004—2016年金融资本市场发展对制造业演化的影响"

	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
Density	2.777^***	2.882^***	3.071^***	2.987^***	1.193^***
Credit		0.071^***		0.068^***
Equity		3.086^***		4.052^***
RC_Credit			0.135^***		0.028^***
RC_Equity			-5.037^***		-10.377^***
Credit $×$ Density				0.415^***
Equity $×$ Density				-40.521^***
RC_Credit $×$ Density					0.906^***
RC_Equity $×$ Density					35.413^***
SOE	0.046^***	-0.011	0.156^***	0.063^***	0.156^***
Eco	-5.102e-07^***	-5.340e-07^***	-5.561e-07^***	-8.922e-08	-4.832e-07^***
HumC	2.238e-07^***	1.977e-08	3.114e-07^***	2.653e-08	3.143e-07^***
Pop	-0.00013418^***	-0.00011851^***	-0.0001^***	-0.00004024^***	-0.00012485^***
Con	-1.308^***	-1.416^***	-1.5620281^***	-1.506^***	-1.350^***
N	582565	582425	567003	582425	567003
R	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.04
Log likelihood	-240562.88	-233908.44	-232217.24	-232396.6	-231949.46
Chi	14421.74	27570.92	16701.58	30594.59	17237.13

表2

表3

2004—2008年和2009—2016年金融资本市场对区域制造业演化的影响"

	2004—2008年					2009—2016年
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8	模型9	模型10
Density	1.765^***	1.871^***	1.925^***	2.671^***	-0.399^*	3.585^***	3.724^***	3.816^***	3.924^***	3.087^***
Credit		0.136^***		0.225^***			0.025^***		0.046^***
Equity		3.181^***		3.895^***			3.223^***		4.356^***
RC_Credit			0.107^***		-0.027			0.118^***		0.089^***
RC_Equity			-2.053^**		-7.013^***			-2.760^***		-10.039^***
Credit $×$ Density				-0.232^**					0.156^***
Equity $×$ Density				-32.735^***					-32.962^***
RC_Credit $×$ Density					1.301^***					0.218^***
RC_Equity $×$ Density					33.505^***					51.518^***
SOE	0.025	-0.043^*	0.091^***	-0.006	0.082^***	0.166^***	0.120^***	0.273^***	0.189^***	0.269^***
Eco	-4.56e-06^***	-4.27e-06^***	-3.72e-06^***	-2.88e-06^***	-0.000^***	-1.41e-06^***	-1.58e-06^***	-1.34e-06^***	-1.05e-06^***	-1.27e-06^***
HumC	3.49e-07^***	-5.2e-08	4.639e-07^***	-3.11e-06^***	-3.86e-06^***	2.29e-07^***	1.26e-07^***	2.54e-07^***	1.12e-07^***	2.32e-07^***
Pop	-0.0001^***	-0.00004^***	-0.00004^*	-1.6E-08	4.968e-07^***	-0.0002^***	-0.0002^***	-0.0002^***	-0.0001^***	-0.0002^***
Con	-1.212^***	-1.380^***	-1.432^***	1.56E-05	-0.0000375^*	-1.312^***	-1.370^***	-1.534^***	-1.476^***	-1.448^***
N	191639	191499	185607	191499	191639	390926	390926	381396	390926	381396
R	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.05	0.07	0.05
Log likelihood	-73708.6	-70634.9	-71325.8	-70098.2	-71233.4	-165592	-161941	-160024	-161371	-159919
Chi	1914.3	7897.81	2414.39	8971.1	2599.35	14143.46	21445.28	15265.38	22856.29	15474.03

表3

表4

2004—2016年各区域金融资本市场对区域产业演化的影响"

	东部		中部		西部
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6
Density	4.546^***	3.271^***	1.559^***	3.218^***	4.310^***	-0.026
Credit	0.121^***		0.041^**		0.254^***
Equity	4.065^***		12.091^***		4.266^***
RC_Credit		0.108^***		0.261^***		-0.077^***
RC_Equity		-4.012^***		-6.895^**		18.712^***
Credit $×$ Density	0.248^***		0.477^***		0.153
Equity $×$ Density	-37.078^***		10.698		0.785
RC_Credit $×$ Density		0.361^***		-1.211^***		1.789^***
RC_Equity $×$ Density		-3.471		114.496^***		76.216^***
SOE	-0.131^***	-0.050^**	0.276^***	0.301^***	0.354^***	0.424^***
Eco	-7.2e-08	-4.00e-07^***	0.276^***	1.32e-06^***	3.75e-07	-0.000
HumC	2.722e-07^***	4.48e-07^***	2.26e-06^***	-5.26e-07^***	-6.826e-07^***	-2.109e-07^***
Pop	-2e-05	-0.000062^***	-7.95e-07^***	-0.0001^***	3.1e-07	-0.00051462^***
Con	-1.805^***	-1.776^***	-1.246^***	-1.449^***	-1.765^***	-1.116^***
N	345270	333956	167942	167942	69213	65105
R	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.12	0.09
Log likelihood	-131173	-128018	-71915.7	-75217.7	-26226	-25513.4
Chi	20499.8	15913.98	8622.04	2018	7038.18	5045.06

表4

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	Density	Credit	Equity	RC_Credit	RC_Equity	SOE	Eco	HumC	Pop	Mean	Std
Density	1									0.096	0.082
Credit	0.29^***	1								0.999	0.588
Equity	0.01^***	0.04^***	1							0.009	0.069
RC_Credit	-0.12^***	0.58^***	-0.01^***	1						1.804	0.594
RC_Equity	0.38^***	0.46^***	0.15^***	0.06^***	1					0.005	0.012
SOE	0.15^***	0.13^***	0.04^***	-0.01^***	0.21^***	1				0.029	0.155
Eco	0.34^***	0.23^***	0.01^***	0.08^***	0.36^***	0.04^***	1			39005.6	31516.0
HumC	0.36^***	0.56^***	0.05^***	0.08^***	0.48^***	0.17^***	0.31^***	1		118228.5	175174.7
Pop	0.23^***	0.14^***	0.02^***	-0.06^***	0.32^***	0.08^***	-0.04^***	0.49^***	1	507.38	359.33