等值化理念下中国城乡融合多维审视及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190572

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于等值化理念采用全局主成分分析（GPCA）和空间自相关分析等方法,测度并审视中国城乡多维融合发展;选取空间计量模型探索推进城乡融合的体制机制。研究发现：① 中国城乡融合发展趋势向好且推进有序。社会和经济融合始终分列第一和第二主导位次,生态环境融合水平亦稳步提升。② 城乡融合热点和冷点区基本分列于“胡焕庸线”东南和西北两侧。人口融合沿东中西递减;空间融合形成“北上广”为主的“核心-边缘”区;东部沿海是经济融合扩散互溢区,而生态环境和经济融合存在空间“错位”;社会融合高值簇集中在中部。③ 破解人才瓶颈、夯实“三权分置”、健全财政体制并创新金融服务、调整产业结构和推动三产融合,打好人、地、钱、业组合拳同时规范政府行为、完善社会服务体系、构建小农户与现代农业有机衔接机制等均利于推进城乡融合。

关键词: 等值化, 城乡融合, 多维审视, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the urban-rural equivalence, the Global Principal Component Analysis (GPCA) method is used to measure the China's urban-rural multi-dimensional integration levels, and the Global and Local Moran Index, Local Getis-Ord G_i ^* Index are performed to reveal the spatial distribution of urban-rural multi-dimensional integration levels in China during 2000-2016. And finally, the spatial econometric model is introduced to explore the influencing factors of urban-rural integration development from the aspects of labors, land, capitals and industries. Research findings are as follows: (1) the trend of urban-rural integration development in China is well and orderly, but has regional heterogeneity. The agglomeration effect is obvious in Eastern China, and the social and economic coordination level has always occupied the first and the second places. (2) China's urban-rural multi-dimensional integration levels often show spatial autocorrelation. The HH values of urban-rural integration overall level are concentrated in Central China and Eastern China, while the LL values are gathered in Western China. The hot and cold spots are located to the southeast and northwest of Heihe-Tengchong Line, respectively. Also the high values of economic integration have always corresponded to those of ecological and environmental integration. Population integration level decreases from Eastern to Western China. Spatial integration level presents the "core-edge" structure such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. Spatial spillover effect of the economic integration development is obvious in the coastal region of China, while the development of ecological environment integration and economic integration has spatial dislocation. And the clusters of social integration high values are in Central China. (3) The ways of the urban-rural multi-dimensional integration are as follows: Firstly, we should improve the quality of rural labor forces and promote the interaction between urban and rural residents. Secondly, we should stimulate the multi-function of rural land and control the disorderly urban expansion. Thirdly, we should take financial expenditures in a reasonable range and provide a perfect financial support in urban and rural areas. Finally, industrial restructuring is also needed. And moreover, regulating the behavior of the local governments will be benefit to the urban-rural multi-dimensional integration and good governance in China.

Key words: equivalence, urban-rural integration, multidimensional review, China

周佳宁, 邹伟, 秦富仓. 等值化理念下中国城乡融合多维审视及影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(8): 1836-1851.

ZHOU Jianing, ZOU Wei, QIN Fucang. Review of urban-rural multi-dimensional integration and influencing factors in China based on the concept of equivalence[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(8): 1836-1851.

图/表 7

表1

城乡融合评价指标体系"

目标	维度	指标名称	计算或说明	类型	属性
城乡融合整体水平	人口融合	非农与农业从业比	X₁,二三产就业比/一产就业比(%)	对比类	正向
		就业反差系数	X₂,城乡居民就业占比差(%)	对比类	逆向
		教育反差系数	X₃,城乡初中以上文化程度人员差(万人)	对比类	逆向
		人口互动程度	X₄,城乡人口迁移率(%)	动力类	正向
		人口城镇化水平	X₅,城镇人口/总人口(%)	状态类	正向
	空间融合	建成区面积比	X₆,建成区面积/土地总面积(%)	状态类	正向
		人口密度比	X₇,城镇人口密度/农村人口密度(%)	状态类	逆向
		城乡土地配置	X₈,农地播种面积/建成区面积(%)	动力类	正向
		城乡空间流通网络	X₉,铁（公）路运营里程/土地总面积(km/km²)	状态类	正向
		城乡空间流通主体	X₁₀,旅客周转量(亿人次／km)	动力类	正向
		城乡空间流通媒介	X₁₁,私人汽车拥有量/总人口(辆/人)	动力类	正向
	经济融合	城乡人均收入比	X₁₂,城镇人均可支配收入/农村人均可支配收入(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡工资性收入比	X₁₃,城镇人均工资性收入/农村人均工资性收入(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡人均消费比	X₁₄,城市人均消费/农村人均消费(%)	对比类	逆向
		恩格尔系数比	X₁₅,城市恩格尔系数/农村恩格尔系数(%)	对比类	正向
		二元对比系数	X₁₆,人均一产产值/人均二三产产值(%)	对比类	正向
	社会融合	城乡交通通讯比	X₁₇,城镇人均交通通讯支出/农村人均交通通讯支出(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡文教娱乐比	X₁₈,城镇人均文教娱乐支出/农村人均文教娱乐支出(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡基础教育比	X₁₉,城镇人均教育经费投入/农村人均教育经费投入(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡人均医疗保健比	X₂₀,城镇人均医疗保健支出/农村人均医疗保健支出(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡人均医师数比	X₂₁,城镇人均医师数/农村人均医师数(%)	对比类	逆向
		城乡养老保险覆盖系数	X₂₂,基本养老保险支出/地方财政一般预算支出(%)	动力类	正向
		城乡失业保险覆盖系数	X₂₃,失业参保人数/总人口(%)	动力类	正向
	生态环境融合	城乡生态绿化	X₂₄,森林覆盖率(%)	状态类	正向
	生态环境融合	节能减排系数	X₂₅,单位GDP能源消费量(吨标准煤/万元)	动力类	逆向
		污染治理系数	X₂₆,单位GDP环境污染治理投资(%)	动力类	正向
		工业固体废弃物排放量	X₂₇,(万t)	动力类	逆向
		工业废气排放量	X₂₈,(亿标m³)	动力类	逆向
		工业废水排放量	X₂₉,(万t)	动力类	逆向

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

表3

表4

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空间效应LM检验	整体融合		人口融合		空间融合		经济融合		社会融合		生态环境融合
参数	统计量	P值	统计量	P值	统计量	P值	统计量	P值	统计量	P值	统计量	P值
LM-Err检验	22.703	0.000	50.426	0.000	3.582	0.058	11.050	0.001	108.973	0.000	21.074	0.000
稳健LM-Err检验	16.568	0.000	60.883	0.000	0.054	0.816	15.981	0.000	97.315	0.000	15.055	0.000
LM-Lag检验	10.952	0.001	0.947	0.331	28.471	0.000	0.851	0.356	13.430	0.000	91.218	0.000
稳健LM-Lag检验	4.817	0.028	11.404	0.001	24.943	0.000	5.782	0.016	1.772	0.183	85.198	0.000

变量	整体融合	整体融合 (2000—2003年)	整体融合 (2004—2016年)	人口融合	空间融合	经济融合	社会融合	生态环境融合
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8
ln(Labtra)	0.060^***	0.186^***	0.074^***	-0.007^**	0.003	0.056^***	0.023^***	-0.021^***
Lrs	0.021^*	0.000	0.006	0.000	0.004^**	-0.002	0.008	0.010^***
ln(Fina)	-0.098^***	0.034	-0.107^**	-0.029^***	-0.030^***	-0.037^**	0.011	0.009
ln(Fai)	0.049^***	-0.030	0.048^***	-0.000	0.020^***	0.010^**	0.002	0.008^***
ln(Edu)	0.017	0.002	0.015	0.017^***	0.007^**	-0.007	0.004	0.002
ln(DC)×ln(Fina)	0.025^**	-0.011	0.028^*	0.010^***	0.010^***	0.008	-0.008	-0.001
ln(DC)×ln(Fai)	-0.014^***	0.004	-0.014^***	-0.000	-0.006^***	-0.004^**	0.001	-0.002^**
ln(DC)×ln(Edu)	-0.000	0.002	-0.000	-0.004^***	-0.002^**	0.003	0.003	0.000
ln(Fds)	0.058^***	0.030	0.018	0.004^*	0.006^***	0.006	0.020^***	0.011^***
ln(InduA)	0.038^***	-0.038^*	0.021^**	-0.001	0.010^***	0.013^***	0.017^***	-0.003
ln(Pergdp)	0.034^***	-0.018	0.063^***	0.004^**	0.002	-0.005	0.011^*	0.006^**
ln(Open)	0.009^**	0.010	0.016^***	-0.000	0.001	0.002	0.005^**	-0.001
ln(Indust)	0.019^**	-0.052^*	0.015	0.006^***	0.008^***	0.010^***	-0.001	0.003
lambda	0.616^***	-0.246^*	0.185^*	0.189^***		0.579^***	0.592^***
rho					-0.020			0.502^***
Obs	510	120	390	510	510	510	510	510
R²	0.395	0.400	0.387	0.487	0.250	0.208	0.517	0.103
模型选择	SEM-FE	SEM-FE	SEM-FE	SEM-FE	SLM-FE	SEM-FE	SEM-FE	SLM-FE

变量	整体融合	整体融合 (2000—2003年)	整体融合 (2004—2016年)	人口融合	空间融合	经济融合	社会融合	生态环境融合
ln(Labtra)	0.056^***	0.183^***	0.069^***	-0.007^***	0.003	0.051^***	0.023^**	-0.020^***
Lrs	0.021^*	0.000	0.003	0.001	0.004^**	-0.002	0.011^*	0.010^***
ln(Fina)	-0.081^**	0.019	-0.112^**	-0.021^***	-0.036^***	-0.023	0.009	0.004
ln(Fai)	0.039^***	-0.029	0.054^***	-0.002	0.022^***	0.005	0.002	0.010^***
ln(Edu)	0.052^***	0.017	0.005	0.012^***	0.008^***	-0.009	0.018^*	0.006
ln(DC)×ln(Fina)	0.022^*	-0.005	0.031^*	0.007^***	0.012^***	0.003	-0.007	0.000
ln(DC)×ln(Fai)	-0.012^***	0.004	-0.017^***	0.001	-0.006^***	-0.002	0.000	-0.003^***
ln(DC)×ln(Edu)	-0.002	-0.000	0.001	-0.003^***	-0.003^***	0.004^**	0.003	-0.001
ln(Fds)	0.032^**	0.026	0.007	0.008^***	0.000	0.002	0.015^**	0.019^***
ln(InduA)	0.028^***	-0.048^**	0.018^**	0.000	0.005^***	0.012^***	0.012^***	0.003
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
rho	0.270^***			-0.004	-0.028		0.208^***	0.733^***
lambda		-0.174	0.369^***			0.559^***
Obs	510	120	390	510	510	510	510	510
R²	0.537	0.378	0.377	0.512	0.262	0.231	0.593	0.217
模型选择	SLM-FE	SEM-FE	SEM-FE	SLM-FE	SLM-FE	SEM-FE	SLM-FE	SLM-FE