农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190720

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。

关键词: 恢复力, 气候变化, 生计, 可持续性, 适应

Abstract:

With the awareness of climate change and its possible consequences to natural environment and human society, livelihood resilience has gradually become a new and key concept in our efforts to cope with the risks induced by climate change. On the basis of combing the concept of resilience in different fields, the scientific connotation and research framework of farmers' livelihood resilience to climate change are presented to improve the resilience of farmers' livelihood to climate change which mainly reflects assets, government apparatus, self-organization capacity and learning capacity. Finally, the measurement methods of livelihood resilience are summarized from aspects of qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Qualitative evaluation methods mainly include field questionnaire survey, key informants interview, key group discussion, livelihood trajectory method and case analysis. Quantitative evaluation methods mainly contain indicator substitution method, structural dynamics analysis, Bayesian network model and baseline comparison method. Future research needs to improve the evaluation method, strengthen the dynamic study and carry out regional comparative studies on the resilience of farmers' livelihood to climate change.

Key words: resilience, climate change, livelihood, sustainability, adaptation

熊思鸿, 阎建忠, 吴雅. 农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(8): 1934-1946.

XIONG Sihong, YAN Jianzhong, WU Ya. Review on the resilience of farmers' livelihoods to climate change[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(8): 1934-1946.

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研究对象	举例	概念内涵	学科领域	文献来源
自然生态系统	海岸带恢复力	海岸带在变化的水文和地貌环境中保持实际和潜在功能的自组织能力。	生态学	[32]
自然生态系统	生态恢复力	生态系统受到扰动后仍维持其重要特征（包括生物组成、结构、生态系统功能等）,并恢复到稳定状态的能力。	生态学	[33]
社会经济系统	社区恢复力	社区应对社会、政治和环境变化带来的压力和扰动的能力。	社区	[34, 35]
	城市恢复力	城市系统能够准备、响应特定的多重威胁并从中恢复,并将其对公共安全健康和经济的影响降至最低的能力。	城市	[36, 37]
	企业恢复力	企业根据股东和持股人的意愿和需求,制定相应的方法政策保证企业的持续增长和发展,通过风险预测、机会辨识、产品选择和销售设计等一系列措施应对外部变化的能力。	组织	[38]
社会-生态复杂系统	农业恢复力	农业生产及与之相关的人类社会遭受外界干扰时,通过系统自我调节和外部能量输入,维持农业系统本身的结构、功能、特性并恢复到稳定状态的能力。	农业系统	[39, 40]
	粮食安全恢复力	一个家庭通过承受冲击和压力保持一定程度的福利（即食物安全）的能力,并在承受变化的同时进行重组,以保持与原状基本上相同的功能、结构、身份和反馈,这取决于家庭可供选择的谋生手段和处理风险的能力。	粮食安全	[41]
	灾害恢复力	一个系统在面临灾害（如地震、干旱等）时,能够及时有效地抵御、吸纳和承受灾害的影响,并从中恢复的能力。	灾害管理	[42]

恢复力表现	具体措施	参考文献
资本	自然：土壤保护、种植改良/耐旱作物、作物多样化、调整作物种植和收获日期、人工种草	[22, 59-64]
	金融：汇款、获得信贷
	物质：机械化、修建水塘(农户自主修建)、增加牲畜数量、调整房屋地基
	人力：提高受教育水平、保持安全健康
政府机构	补贴：生态补偿、直接补贴牲畜基础设施：灌溉设施、饮用水工程、政府投资效率、完善市场和贸易、市场准入政策：建立保护区、退牧还林还草、禁牧政策、湿地分配政策、森林管理、市场干预政策	[63-71]
自组织能力	社区一级进行风险评估、规划、实施和监测、社区提供资源、社区修建防水堤坝	[14, 65, 72]
学习能力	生计多样化、种植制度多样化、渔业旅游、教育和推广服务、向以往经验学习、迁移	[62, 73-76]

类型	指标	文献来源
自然	家庭拥有的土地、牧草地、林地、渔业等资源等	[15, 53, 103-105]
金融	收入、储蓄、借贷、现金、实物补贴等
物质	牲畜、耐用品、房屋、生产工具等
人力	家庭规模和人口构成、健康和营养状况、教育情况等
政府机构	水、电、通讯、学校、医疗、道路、市场的可获得程度、灌溉设施、气候预警系统等	[50, 103, 105, 106]
自组织能力	粮食自给能力、邻里信任、参与社区活动、参与社区组织、社会关系网络、市政服务等	[107, 108]
学习能力	技能和培训机会、非农经验、信息获取能力、最高教育程度、收入多样性等	[102, 109, 110]