新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程与模式研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200329

地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 1450-1462.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200329

• 新冠肺炎疫情地理研究 • 上一篇下一篇

新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程与模式研究

王姣娥^1,², 杜德林^1,², 魏冶³, 杨浩然^4,⁵

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
3. 东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春 130024
4. 华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海 200062
5. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200241

收稿日期:2019-04-19 修回日期:2020-06-14 出版日期:2020-07-20 发布日期:2020-09-20
作者简介:王姣娥（1981-），女，湖南涟源人，研究员，博士生导师，研究方向为交通地理与区域发展等。E-mail: wangje@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41722103)

The development of COVID-19 in China: Spatial diffusion and geographical pattern

WANG Jiaoe^1,², DU Delin^1,², WEI Ye³, YANG Haoran^4,⁵

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
4. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
5. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

Received:2019-04-19 Revised:2020-06-14 Online:2020-07-20 Published:2020-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程与模式对于防疫抗疫资源的合理配置、突发公共卫生事件的管理与应对以及未来公共卫生体系的完善具有重要意义。本文综合时间和空间尺度,从地理学视角研究了新冠肺炎疫情的城际空间扩散过程,归纳总结扩散模式,并揭示了其影响因素。研究发现：新冠肺炎疫情在中国的发展主要经历了6个阶段,并在空间上表现出邻近扩散、迁移扩散、等级扩散和廊道扩散等地理模式;地理邻近性、人口流动、人口规模、交通网络、疫情防控管理等因素对疫情的空间扩散具有显著影响。新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程和模式一定程度上是“流空间”网络下人类社会经济活动空间组织模式的一种反映,与地理邻近性、社会经济联系的跨区域性及人类活动的时空规律等密切相关。本研究以期为世界各国的疫情防控措施制定提供参考,也为中国未来应对公共卫生应急风险提供经验借鉴。

关键词: 疫情, 地理邻近性, 扩散, 人口流动, 交通

Abstract:

The study of the spatial diffusion and geographical mode of COVID-19 is of great significance for the rational allocation of health resources, the management and response of public health emergencies, and the improvement of public health system in the future. Based on multiple spatio-temporal scale, this paper studied the spatial spreading process of COVID-19 between cities and its evolution characteristics in China, and then explored its influencing factors. The results are shown in the following: the inter-city spreading process of COVID-19 in China mainly experienced six stages, namely, stage I: diffusion in Wuhan, stage II: rapid multi-point diffusion in space, stage III: rapid increase of confirmed cases, stage IV : gradual decrease of new confirmed cases, stage V: the epidemic under control, and stage VI: cases imported from overseas. In the context of globalization and open regional system, the social and economic development of regions are closely related to each other. With the development of fast and convenient high-speed railway network, the spatial characteristic of population migration shows a cross-regional and hierarchical pattern, and forms a certain spatial cascade structure along the transport corridor. Accordingly, the spatial spread of COVID-19 mainly showsthe characteristics of adjacent diffusion, relocation diffusion, hierarchical diffusion, and corridor diffusion. The study found that geographical proximity, population migration and population size, traffic network, epidemic prevention and control measures have significant influence on the spatial diffusion process of COVID-19. Among different modes of transportation, airplanes play agreater role than others in the early stage of the epidemic. In addition, the population flow during the Spring Festival had a certain impact on the spread of the epidemic. In conclusion, to some extent, the spatial spread process and pattern of COVID-19 epidemic reflects the spatial organization pattern of social and economic activities under the "space of flows" network, which is closely related to the geographical proximity, the social and economic linkages between regions, and the spatial an temporal patterns of human activities. From the perspective of geography, this paper analyzed the inter-city spread pattern of COVID-19 epidemic and provided some implications for prevention and control measures against the epidemic in other countries, and also offered some suggestions for China to deal with public health emergency risks in the future.

Key words: epidemic, geographical proximity, diffusion, population flow, transport

王姣娥, 杜德林, 魏冶, 杨浩然. 新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程与模式研究[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(7): 1450-1462.

WANG Jiaoe, DU Delin, WEI Ye, YANG Haoran. The development of COVID-19 in China: Spatial diffusion and geographical pattern[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(7): 1450-1462.

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位序	湖北省		其他地区
位序	城市	累计病例（例）	城市	累计病例（例）
1	武汉	50008	北京	588
2	孝感	3518	重庆	579
3	黄冈	2907	上海	552
4	荆州	1580	温州	504
5	鄂州	1394	广州	467
6	随州	1307	深圳	456
7	襄阳	1175	哈尔滨	325
8	黄石	1015	信阳	274
9	宜昌	931	杭州	266
10	荆门	928	济宁	260

位序	湖北省		其他地区
位序	城市	占比（%）	城市	占比（%）
1	孝感	13.80	信阳	1.49
2	黄冈	13.04	重庆	1.27
3	荆州	6.54	长沙	1.02
4	咸宁	5.01	北京	0.86
5	鄂州	3.97	南阳	0.69
6	襄阳	3.93	上海	0.66
7	黄石	3.77	驻马店	0.66
8	荆门	3.30	郑州	0.59
9	随州	3.21	九江	0.52
10	仙桃	2.97	岳阳	0.52

疫情扩散	人口流动和规模		与武汉联系交通网络
疫情扩散	武汉迁出人口	城市人口规模	航空运输	高铁列车	长途汽车
累计确诊病例	0.968**	0.210**	0.437**	0.443**	0.631**
首例确诊时间	-0.115*	-0.171**	-0.532**	-0.250**	-0.086

新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散过程与模式研究

The development of COVID-19 in China: Spatial diffusion and geographical pattern

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