气候变化及人为干扰对西藏地区草地退化的影响研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200594

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着草地保护政策的实施,气候及人为干扰对西藏地区草地退化的影响作用发生变化,明确草地退化的影响因素,评价草地保护政策对草地退化恢复的效用,是合理保护西藏地区草地生态平衡的基础。本文以西藏地区为研究区,基于1995—2015年GIMMS-NDVI及统计数据估测草地退化情况,并通过残差分析及回归分析评估了气候变化、人为干扰各自对草地退化的影响,确定出影响西藏地区草地退化的主要因素,并着重探究草地保护政策实施后,放牧干扰对于草地退化的影响情况变化。结果表明：① 1995—2015年西藏地区草地退化面积在908.52万~5207.06万hm²之间波动,整体呈先降后升,复降再升的反复变化过程,草地退化高值区域有由西北向东南方向转移的趋势。② 1995—2015年西藏地区草地区域气温上升显著,而降水方面未表现出明显的变化趋势,气候因素显著影响西藏草地退化区域面积占比为27.96%,温度主导草地退化的区域主要分布于藏南地区,降水主导草地退化的区域分布较为分散。③ 人为干扰对草地退化影响区域占比在2012年前后大体呈先减少后增加的趋势,放牧干扰在2012年后对草地退化影响减弱,表明草地保护政策有所成效,其中牧业县效果最为明显。④ 西藏地区草地退化的驱动因素以人为干扰作用为主,气候因素引起的草地退化较少,并且为恶化作用。

关键词: 西藏, 草地退化, 气候变化, 人为干扰, 放牧强度

Abstract:

With the implementation of grassland protection policy, the effects of climate variation and human activities on grassland degradation in Tibet have changed. To identify the main factors of grassland degradation and evaluate the effectiveness of grassland protection policy on grassland recovery is the basis of reasonable protection of grassland ecological balance in Tibet. The grassland degradation of Tibet is estimated based on the data of GIMMS-NDVI and statistical data from 1995 to 2015. Then the paper evaluates the effects of climate variation and human activities on grassland degradation through residual analysis and regression analysis, in order to identify the main factors affecting grassland degradation in Tibet. And it emphatically explores what changes have taken place in the impact of grazing disturbance on grassland degradation after the implementation of grassland protection policy. Through the research and analysis, some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) From 1995 to 2015, the grassland degradation area in Tibet ranged from 908.52 ten thousand hectare to 5207.06 ten thousand hectare, and the change trend is a repeated process of first decreasing and then increasing. The high value area of grassland degradation shows the spatial distribution trend of transferring from northwest to southeast. (2) The temperature of grassland in Tibet increased significantly, but there was no obvious change in terms of the precipitation. Through the analysis of the impact of climate factors on grassland degradation, the results show that the proportion of grassland degradation area affected by climate is 27.96%, and the grassland degradation area dominated by temperature is mainly distributed in southern Tibet, while the area dominated by precipitation is scattered. (3) The proportion of the grassland degradation region affected by human activities generally decreased, followed by an increase after 2012. The grazing disturbance had a significant effect on grassland degradation, but the influence was weakened after 2012, suggesting that the grassland protection policy was effective, and the effect in pastoral counties was most obvious. (4) Human activities were the main driving factor of the significant change area of grassland degradation, and only a few grassland degradation areas were affected by climate factors alone, which had all exerted deteriorating effects.

Key words: Tibet, grassland degradation, climate variation, human activities, grazing intensity

武爽, 冯险峰, 孔玲玲, 刘子川, 姚玄楚. 气候变化及人为干扰对西藏地区草地退化的影响研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(5): 1265-1279.

WU Shuang, FENG Xianfeng, KONG Lingling, LIU Zichuan, YAO Xuanchu. Effects of climate variation and human activities on grassland degradation in Tibet[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(5): 1265-1279.

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评价指标	监测与评价标准	退化等级	草地退化等级划分标准
草地植被覆盖度	未退化草地植被覆盖（1981—1985年的草地最大植被覆盖度）	未退化	草地植被覆盖度达到未退化草地植被覆盖度的90%以上
		轻度退化	草地植被覆盖度达到未退化草地植被覆盖度的80%~90%
		中度退化	草地植被覆盖度达到未退化草地植被覆盖度的70%~80%
		重度退化	草地植被覆盖度达到未退化草地植被覆盖度的70%以下

县域编号	县域名称	县域编号	县域名称	县域编号	县域名称
1	城关区	26	措美县	51	嘉黎县
2	林周县	27	洛扎县	52	比如县
3	当雄县	28	加查县	53	聂荣县
4	尼木县	29	隆子县	54	安多县
5	曲水县	30	错那县	55	申扎县
6	堆龙德庆区	31	浪卡子县	56	索县
7	达孜区	32	桑珠孜区	57	班戈县
8	墨竹工卡县	33	南木林县	58	巴青县
9	卡若区	34	定日县	59	尼玛县
10	江达县	35	萨迦县	60	普兰县
11	贡觉县	36	拉孜县	61	札达县
12	类乌齐县	37	昂仁县	62	噶尔县
13	丁青县	38	谢通门县	63	日土县
14	察雅县	39	定结县	64	革吉县
15	八宿县	40	仲巴县	65	改则县
16	左贡县	41	吉隆县	66	措勤县
17	芒康县	42	聂拉木县	67	巴宜区
18	洛隆县	43	萨嘎县	68	工布江达县
19	边坝县	44	江孜县	69	米林县
20	乃东区	45	白朗县	70	墨脱县
21	扎囊县	46	仁布县	71	波密县
22	贡嘎县	47	康马县	72	察隅县
23	桑日县	48	亚东县	73	朗县
24	琼结县	49	岗巴县
25	曲松县	50	色尼区

	草地退化变化趋势（P<0.05）	草地退化与气候因子归一化多元回归显著水平	草地退化残差变化趋势
气候和人为引起的退化改善	-	P<0.05	+(P<0.05)
气候引起的退化改善	-	P<0.05	P>0.05
人为引起的退化改善	-	P>0.05	+(P<0.05)
气候和人为引起的退化恶化	+	P<0.05	-(P<0.05)
气候引起的退化恶化	+	P<0.05	P>0.05
人为引起的退化恶化	+	P>0.05	-(P<0.05)