新疆昌吉绿洲耕地适宜规模研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200848

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱区内耕地急剧扩张导致水资源严重超载,进而引发一系列生态问题,因此对干旱区绿洲耕地适宜规模进行科学评估,将为干旱区农业可持续发展与生态保护提供重要参考。本文以水资源为约束条件,选择2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年5个研究时段,分别测算了适宜当地社会经济发展和生态环境需求的“三生”用水量;并基于绿洲水热平衡原理,耦合作物种植结构、不同生长期内的作物系数以及灌溉保障率、耕地覆膜等因素,构建了干旱区耕地水热平衡估算模型,探讨了不同情景下新疆昌吉州耕地适宜规模及其超载程度。结果表明,5个时段中,临界耕地适宜规模情景下的种植业可用水量由2000年的31.75亿m3波动下降至2018年的24.83亿m3,而最佳耕地适宜规模情景下则由27.63亿m3波动下降至21.10亿m3。棉花和小麦在当地种植业结构中占比之和由43.58%提高到2018年的59.08%,两种作物的低耗水特性使其种植占比的提高有利于当地种植业向耕地规模扩张的方向演进。各时段中,保障充分生态用水的最佳耕地适宜规模在28.93万~48.97万hm²间波动,而保障最低生态用水的临界耕地适宜规模在42.63万~67.83万hm²间波动。虽然两种用水情景下的适宜耕地规模波动变化,但耕地面积超载程度始终呈上升趋势,超载程度分别由2000年处于不超载水平的-55.15%和-39.41%提高到2018年的接近于严重超载级别的19.92%和远超严重超载级别的71.37%,表明当地耕地规模已明显呈现过度开发的趋势。

关键词: 水热平衡, 耕地规模, 作物蒸散, 种植结构, 超载分析

Abstract:

The large-scale expansion of cultivated lands in arid region has caused water overload and a series of ecological problems. Therefore, conducting the scientific assessment of the scale of suitable cultivated land in arid areas can provide reference for sustainable development of agricultural and ecological environment. In this research, five years, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were selected as study periods. Water resources were considered as the limiting factor, and a living-production-ecology water consumption structure was built in this research, which is suitable for local socioeconomic development and eco-environment characteristics. The water and heat balance method was improved coupling physical factors like planting structure and crop coefficient in different growth periods, and management factors like irrigation guarantee rate and mulching. Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture was selected as a case study. The results show that the available water amount of the scenario of critical arable land area for planting decreased from 3.175 billion m³ in 2000 to 2.483 billion m³ in 2018, while the available water amount of the scenario of optimal arable land area for planting decreased from 2.763 billion m³ in 2000 to 2.110 billion m³ in 2018. The total planting area proportion of cotton and wheat increased from 43.58% in 2000 to 59.08% in 2018. Among the main crops, cotton and wheat had lower water requirements after being compensated by precipitation, while the sown area proportion of both increased, indicating that the planting structure is evolving toward the aspect helpful to expansion suitable cultivated land. In the five years, the optimal arable land area which can ensure adequate ecological water consumption is between 28.93 ten thousand hectare and 48.97 ten thousand hectare, while the critical arable land area which can ensure minimal ecological water consumption is between 42.63 ten thousand hectare and 67.83 ten thousand hectare. Available water for plant industry declined with fluctuations. Although the factors affecting the scale of suitable cultivated land fluctuated, under the scenarios of critical and optimal scales of arable land, the overload degree of cultivated land scale showed an upward trend, which varied from -55.15% and -39.41%, at no overload level, in 2000, to 19.92%, a level close to severe overload, and 71.37%, a level of far exceeding severe overload, respectively. The scale of local cultivated land has presented an overload development level.

Key words: water and heat balance, scale of cultivated land, crop evapotranspiration, planting structure, overload analysis

李婧昕, 张红旗. 新疆昌吉绿洲耕地适宜规模研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(3): 613-626.

LI Jingxin, ZHANG Hongqi. Study on the suitable scale of cultivated land in oasis of Changji, Xinjiang[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(3): 613-626.

图/表 10

表1

昌吉州除种植业外“三生”用水测算方法及说明"

用水项		计算方法	定额数据参考来源/计算方法
生活用水	城乡居民生活用水	$W L = Q C × P C + Q X × P X × n × 10 - 11$ 式中：Q_c、Q_x分别代表城镇和农村居民生活用水定额（L/人/天）;P_c和P_x分别代表城镇和农村居民人数（人）;n为当年份天数（天）	以2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]为基准,经实地考察与专家咨询,设定城镇和农村居民生活用水定额变幅分别为15L/10年和20L/10年
生产用水	农业-林果灌溉用水	$W F = Q F × A F × 10 - 8$ 式中：Q_F代表林果地灌溉定额（m3/hm²）;A_F代表林果地面积（hm²）	2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]
	农业-牧草地灌溉用水	$W G = Q G × A G × R G × 10 - 8$ 式中：Q_G代表牧草地灌溉定额（m3/hm²）;A_G代表牧草地面积（hm²）;R_G代表牧草地灌溉面积比例（%）	2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]
	农业-牲畜需水	$W D = Q D 1 × M D 1 + Q D 2 × M D 2 × n × 10 - 11$ 式中：Q_D1和Q_D2分别代表大、小牲畜需水量定额（L/头/天）;M_D1和M_D2分别代表大、小牲畜数量（头）,其中大牲畜数量为牛、马、驴数量之和;小牲畜为猪、山羊、绵羊数量之和	2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]
	农业-鱼塘补水	$W Y = Q Y × A Y × 10 - 8$ 式中：Q_Y代表鱼塘补水定额（m3/hm²）;A_Y代表鱼塘面积（hm²）	2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]
	工业用水	$W I = Q I × V I × 10 - 4$ 式中：Q_i代表万元工业增加值用水量（m3/万元）;V_i代表当年工业增加值（亿元）	以2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]为基准,经实地考察与专家咨询,设定万元工业增加值用水量变幅为2%/年
	城镇公共用水	$W C = Q P × P C × n × 10 - 11$ 式中：Q_P代表人均城镇公共用水定额（L/人/天）	以2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]为基准,经实地考察与专家咨询,设定城镇公共用水定额变幅为20L/5年
生态用水	河道外生态用水	$W E 1 = Q E × A E × R E × 10 - 8$ 式中：Q_E代表园林绿地灌溉定额（m3/hm²）;A_E为园林绿地面积（hm²）;R_E为园林绿地面积有效灌溉比例（%）	2017年昌吉州水资源公报^[26]
生态用水	河道内生态用水	$W E 2 = W × i$ 式中：i=10%或30%,分别代表预留10%和30%水资源总量的河道内生态用水量（亿m3）,即临界耕地适宜规模和最佳耕地适宜规模下的河道内生态用水量	经实地考察与专家咨询;参考中国工程院《“新疆水土资源可持续利用与生态文明建设”专题报告与调研报告》^[27]

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