中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异与影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210150

地理研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 1194-1211.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210150

中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异与影响因素

周天墨¹^,²^,³(), 陈鹏飞¹, 陈佳林³, 诸云强¹^,⁴(), 王晓爽¹^,²^,⁵, 祁彦民¹^,⁶, 李威蓉¹^,², 孙凯¹, 王曙¹, 程全英¹^,²

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.应急管理部信息研究院,北京 100029
4.江苏省地理信息协同创新中心,南京 210023
5.北京市生态环境局综合事务中心,北京 100048
6.宁波诺丁汉大学理工学院,宁波 315100

收稿日期:2021-03-02 接受日期:2021-10-11 出版日期:2022-04-10 发布日期:2022-06-10
通讯作者: 诸云强（1977-）,男,江西广丰人,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为地理空间数据本体与共享、资源环境信息系统。E-mail: zhuyq@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:周天墨（1989-）,女,北京人,工程师,博士生,主要研究方向为大数据分析、应急管理信息化。E-mail: zhoutm@coalinfo.net.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23100100)

Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of coal mine safe production level in China

ZHOU Tianmo¹^,²^,³(), CHEN Pengfei¹, CHEN Jialin³, ZHU Yunqiang¹^,⁴(), WANG Xiaoshuang¹^,²^,⁵, QI Yanmin¹^,⁶, LI Weirong¹^,², SUN Kai¹, WANG Shu¹, CHENG Quanying¹^,²

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Information Research Institute of Emergency Management Department, Beijing 100029, China
4. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
5. Beijing Municipal Ecology Environment Bureau Integrating Business Center, Beijing 100048, China
6. University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China

Received:2021-03-02 Accepted:2021-10-11 Published:2022-04-10 Online:2022-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2001—2019年分省百万吨死亡率,利用泰尔指数、变异系数和地理探测器等对中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异程度及其驱动因素展开定量化研究,为及时获取区域煤矿安全态势、提升煤矿事故精准预警与防范提供支持。结果显示：① 依据百万吨死亡率可将中国煤矿安全生产水平分为南方区（川云渝贵湘鄂桂赣粤苏浙闽）、东北区（黑吉辽）、西北区（青新甘）、华北区（京冀鲁豫皖）和中北区（晋陕蒙宁）5个区域,各区煤矿安全水平依次升高。② 煤矿安全水平总体差异经历了总体稳定且差异均衡期（2001—2007年）、总体及差异波动上升期（2008—2015年）、总体稳定但区间差异加大期（2016—2019年）3个发展阶段后仍保持缓慢增长态势,区内差异开始缩减但区间差异持续扩大。③ 影响五大区安全水平的因素各异,采掘环境对东北区、西北区和南方区影响大;供需情况和企业管理类指标的变化更易引起东北区、华北区和中北区安全水平变动;监察执法类指标对中北区以外的各区均具有较高的影响力;各区百万吨死亡率对经济环境均产生响应,但指标的影响系数处于中等水平。④ 监察执法、供需情况和经济环境类指标与其他类别指标普遍具有较强的非线性增强效应,通过调整监察执法类指标更易对安全水平变动产生效果。

关键词: 煤矿安全, 时空特征, 差异分析, 影响因素, 百万吨死亡率, 地理探测器

Abstract:

Based on the 2001-2019 million-ton mortality rate by province, this paper conducts a quantitative study on the degree of spatial variation of China's coal mine safe production level and its driving factors using the Theil index, coefficient of variation, and geographic detectors to provide support for identifying risk level of regional coal mine safety in time and strengthening accurate coal mine accident warning and prevention. The results show that: (1) Based on the million-ton mortality rate, China's coal mine safe production level can be divided into five regions: Southern Region (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian), Northeast Region (Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning), Northwest Region (Qinghai, Xinjiang and Gansu), Northern Region (Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Anhui) and North-Central Region (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia). (2) The difference in coal mine safety level experienced three stages: the period of overall stability and differential equilibrium (2001-2007), the period of overall and differential fluctuant rising (2008-2015), and the period of overall stability with increasing interval differences (2016-2019). After going through these stages, the overall difference in coal mine safety level still maintained a slow-growth trend, and the differences within regions began to shrink but the differences between regions continued to expand. (3) The factors affecting the safety level of the five regions are different. The extractive environment has a large impact on the northeast, northwest and southern regions; changes in the supply and demand situation and enterprise management indicators are more likely to cause changes in the safety level of the northeast, northern and north-central regions; the regulatory and monitoring indicators have a great influence on all the regions except the north-central region; the million-ton mortality rate of each region has the response to the economic environment, and the influence coefficient of the indicators is at medium level. (4) The indicators of regulatory monitoring, supply and demand, and the economic environment generally have a strong non-linear enhancement effect, which is more likely to affect the change of safety level by adjusting the indicators of regulatory monitoring.

Key words: coal mine safety, spatio-temporal characteristics, regional variance, influencing factor, million-ton mortality rate, Geodetector

周天墨, 陈鹏飞, 陈佳林, 诸云强, 王晓爽, 祁彦民, 李威蓉, 孙凯, 王曙, 程全英. 中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异与影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2022, 41(4): 1194-1211.

ZHOU Tianmo, CHEN Pengfei, CHEN Jialin, ZHU Yunqiang, WANG Xiaoshuang, QI Yanmin, LI Weirong, SUN Kai, WANG Shu, CHENG Quanying. Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of coal mine safe production level in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2022, 41(4): 1194-1211.

图/表 7

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表1

影响因素选取

目标	类别	指标	具体含义	相关程度
煤矿百万吨死亡率	采掘环境	聚煤区类型（X₁）	根据曹代勇等^[8]进行划分。	0.516^**
		年降水量（X₂）	分省份全年总降水量。	0.503^**
		地下水资源量（X₃）	分省份地下水赋存量。	0.378^**
	供需情况	煤炭消费量（X₄）	反映煤炭需求情况,市场消费量波动直接影响企业实际生产状态与生产接续计划的制定,需求激增可能导致冒进生产情况增加。	-0.561^**
	供需情况	煤炭铁路运输能力（X₅）	即通过铁路完成的煤炭省间交流量/铁路运营里程,综合反本地供应与外省调入状态及路网运营能力对其的支撑程度。	-0.604^**
	经济环境	人均GDP（X₆）	综合表征经济状态与实际发展水平。	-0.507^**
		第二产业占比（X₇）	反映产业结构,产业占比变化会对企业发展方向与生产计划的制定带来影响。	-0.684^**
		出厂价格指数（X₈）	反映生产领域的景气程度,用于衡量行业发展整体背景状态。	0.293^**
	企业管理	企业利润（X₉）	即资本总量与负债总量的差值,用于表征企业经营状态。	-0.74^**
		固定资产投资金额（X₁₀）	是衡量企业安全建设水平的重要指标,直观反映各地煤炭采选业固定资产投资规模与变化情况。尤其在行业转型和结构调整的情况下,指标增减直接影响企业产能释放速率与行业发展状态。	-0.558^**
		职工技能水平（X₁₁）	即中专以上学历的专业技术人员数量,受教育程度和专业技能水平直接影响先进理念理解深度与新技术装备的运用推广力度。	-0.527^**
		工资水平（X₁₂）	表征行业发展状态与职工收入高低程度,是平衡行业工资差距的重要依据。	-0.592^**
		煤炭开采绩效（X₁₃）	即原煤产量/从业人数,表明单位产出所需的人工成本,用于综合衡量技术提升、政策引导等因素对减人增效与安全生产工作的影响程度。	-0.47^**
	监察执法	监察效率（X₁₄）	即发现隐患数量/执法矿次,表征现场检查的有效程度。	0.354^**
		处罚力度（X₁₅）	即处罚次数/执法矿次,表征执法取得的实际绩效。	0.294^**
		罚款力度（X₁₆）	即罚款总额/执法矿次,表征政府对企业违规操作的惩戒程度。	0.219^**

表1

表2

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指标		东北	华北	中北	西北	南方
采掘环境	聚煤区类型（X₁）				0.54^***	0.66^***
	年降水量（X₂）	0.89^**			0.53^**	0.42^**
	地下水资源量（X₃）	0.67^*		0.51^***	0.65^**	0.28^***
供需情况	煤炭消费量（X₄）	0.86^***	0.92^**	0.41^*
供需情况	煤炭铁路运输能力（X₅）			0.26^*
经济环境	人均GDP（X₆）		0.94^***			0.42^***
	第二产业占比（X₇）	0.79^*	0.6^*	0.3^*	0.53^*
	出厂价格指数（X₈）			0.41^*	0.45^*	0.33^**
企业管理	企业利润（X₉）
	固定资产投资金额（X₁₀）	0.55^**	0.89^***		0.53^*
	职工技能水平（X₁₁）	0.46^**		0.25^**
	工资水平（X₁₂）			0.74^**		0.24^***
	煤炭开采绩效（X₁₃）				0.55^***
监察执法	监察效率（X₁₄）				0.76^**	0.23^*
	处罚力度（X₁₅）	0.99^**
	罚款力度（X₁₆）	0.61^*	0.89^***		0.49^**

中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异与影响因素

Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of coal mine safe production level in China

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