疫情冲击下全球跨境电商物流韧性的时空异质性研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210414

地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 3333-3348.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210414

疫情冲击下全球跨境电商物流韧性的时空异质性研究

余金艳¹^,²(), 张英男¹^,², 刘卫东³^,⁴^,⁵^,^*(), 肖作鹏⁶

1.北京第二外国语学院中国“一带一路”战略研究院,北京 100024
2.一带一路数据分析与决策支持北京市重点实验室,北京 100024
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
4.中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
5.中国科学院大学资源环境学院,北京 100049
6.哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）建筑学院,深圳 518055

收稿日期:2021-05-14 接受日期:2021-07-26 出版日期:2021-12-10 发布日期:2022-02-10
通讯作者: 刘卫东（1967-）,男,河北隆化人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事经济地理学研究,特别是“一带一路”建设研究。E-mail: liuwd@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:余金艳（1986-）,女,四川资中人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事经济地理、区域发展和信息化研究。E-mail: jinyanyu@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41801151);北京市教育委员会科研计划一般项目(SM202110031001);北京第二外国语学院青年学术英才计划项目

Research on spatio-temporal heterogeneity of global cross-border e-commerce logistics resilience under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic

YU Jinyan¹^,²(), ZHANG Yingnan¹^,², LIU Weidong³^,⁴^,⁵^,^*(), XIAO Zuopeng⁶

1. China Academy of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China
2. Beijing Key Laboratory of the Belt and Road Data, Beijing 100024, China
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
5. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
6. School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China

Received:2021-05-14 Accepted:2021-07-26 Published:2021-12-10 Online:2022-02-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新冠疫情给全球化进程带来巨大冲击,流动性被切断是其中重要原因,尤以物流延滞造成的物资短缺影响最为严重。作为供应链的重要组成部分,国际物流时效性和格局在疫情冲击下发生了重要变化。通过对全球疫情及跨境电商物流大数据的挖掘、计算和分析,从韧性角度对物流时效的时空异质性展开研究,分析物流受冲击变化的特征,以及韧性空间格局、阶段差异和时间过程,并结合定量分析其影响因素。研究发现：在疫情冲击下,物流时效性呈现“衰减波”特征,表现出明显的抵抗力阶段、恢复力阶段,以及韧性提升;北美、西欧的物流韧性相对较低,东亚及其邻近的中亚、中东欧、西亚、北非区域则相对较高,尤其是抵抗力阶段差异明显;全球物流恢复力指数普遍高于抵抗力指数,北美、西欧、大洋洲部分样本恢复力较弱;时间过程上可分为3个时期,并呈现出一定的空间传导现象：前6个月急速下降、艰难抵抗后平稳恢复,第7至第11个月整体向好、局部震荡,第12至第13个月全球小幅波动后较快恢复;影响物流韧性时空异质性的因素较为综合,其中物流网络关系、疫情严重程度的影响相对显著。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 跨境电商物流, 物流韧性, 时空异质性

Abstract:

The COVID-19 epidemic has brought a huge impact to globalization, and the cutting off of mobility is a major reason, especially the material shortage caused by the delayed logistics. As an important part of the supply chain, the efficiency and pattern of international logistics have undergone great changes under the impact of the epidemic. Based on the mining, calculation and analysis of the big data of the global epidemic and cross-border e-commerce logistics, this paper studies the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of logistics timeliness from the perspective of resilience, and analyzes the impact of variation characteristics of logistics, as well as the spatial pattern, stage difference and time process of resilience, combined with quantitative analysis of its influencing factors. It is found that under the impact of the epidemic, the timeliness of logistics presents the characteristics of "attenuation wave", showing obvious stages of resistance, recovery and resilience improvement. The logistics resilience of North America and Western Europe is relatively low, while that of Asia and its neighboring Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, West Asia and North Africa is relatively high, especially the difference of resistance stage is obvious. The global logistics recovery index is generally higher than the resistance index, and the resilience of some samples from North America, Western Europe and Oceania is weak. The time course can be divided into three periods, and presents a certain space conduction phenomenon: in the first six months, logistics resilience dropped rapidly and recovered steadily after difficult resistance. From the seventh to the eleventh months, the overall trend was good with local shocks. From the twelfth month to the thirteenth month, the overall trend recovered quickly after small fluctuations. The factors affecting the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of logistics resilience are relatively comprehensive, among which the logistics network and the severity of the epidemic are relatively significant.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, cross-border e-commerce logistics, logistics resilience, spatio-temporal heterogeneity

余金艳, 张英男, 刘卫东, 肖作鹏. 疫情冲击下全球跨境电商物流韧性的时空异质性研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(12): 3333-3348.

YU Jinyan, ZHANG Yingnan, LIU Weidong, XIAO Zuopeng. Research on spatio-temporal heterogeneity of global cross-border e-commerce logistics resilience under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(12): 3333-3348.

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[48]	刘卫东. 新冠肺炎疫情对经济全球化的影响分析. 地理研究, 2020, 39(7): 1439-1449. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200514
	[ Liu Weidong. The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the development of economic globalization. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(7): 1439-1449.] DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020200514. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200514

影响因素	综合指数	抵抗力指数	恢复力指数	韧性提升指数
物流网络节点中心度	-0.260^**	-0.039	-0.342^**	-0.050
物流网络连接数	-0.127	-0.008	-0.173^*	-0.047
物流业发展水平	-0.129	-0.052	-0.125	0.040
疫情严重程度	-0.135^*	-0.058	-0.124^*	0.017
疫情防控力度	0.030	0.031	0.098	0.082

疫情冲击下全球跨境电商物流韧性的时空异质性研究

Research on spatio-temporal heterogeneity of global cross-border e-commerce logistics resilience under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic

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