数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的空间效应与影响路径

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210644

地理研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 1826-1844.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210644

数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的空间效应与影响路径

张英浩¹^,²^,³(), 汪明峰¹^,²(), 刘婷婷⁴

1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海 200062
2.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200241
3.伯明翰大学战略与国际商务系,伯明翰 B152TT,英国
4.乌特勒支大学人文地理与空间规划系,乌特勒支 3584CB,荷兰

收稿日期:2021-07-27 接受日期:2022-01-04 出版日期:2022-07-10 发布日期:2022-09-10
通讯作者: 汪明峰（1977-）,男,浙江绍兴人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为城市地理与城市经济。E-mail: mfwang@re.ecnu.edu.cn
作者简介:张英浩（1993-）,男,山东淄博人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市地理与城市经济。E-mail: zhangyinghao16@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AZD007);上海市教育委员会科研创新计划重大项目(2021-01-07-00-08-E00130);上海市软科学重点项目(21692101200)

Spatial effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development in China and and its influence path

ZHANG Yinghao¹^,²^,³(), WANG Mingfeng¹^,²(), LIU Tingting⁴

1. Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
2. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
3. Department of Strategy and International Business, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B152TT, UK
4. Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584CB, the Netherlands

Received:2021-07-27 Accepted:2022-01-04 Published:2022-07-10 Online:2022-09-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数字经济已成为推动经济高质量发展和共同富裕的重要抓手。本文梳理数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的影响机制,并构建了创业与创新两条传导路径。基于2011—2018年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据集,从时空两个维度对数字经济与经济高质量发展的演变特征进行分析,并运用空间杜宾模型和中介效应模型对其影响过程、机理与空间异质性进行实证检验。结果表明：① 2011—2018年间,中国数字经济和经济高质量发展水平呈现整体提升趋势,但两者均存在明显的时空差异特征。② 数字经济水平的提高有助于本地经济高质量发展,而对邻近地区经济高质量发展没有表现出显著的积极影响,即存在一定的数字隔离。③ 在东部、中部和东北地区,数字经济对经济高质量发展具有显著的积极作用,且在东部地区的影响效果最为明显。数字经济对不同类型城市经济高质量发展的影响程度大致呈现从特大城市到中小城市依次递减的趋势。④ 中介效应模型的结果验证了创业和创新水平是数字经济推动经济高质量发展的中介变量,但同时这种传导效应存在明显的空间异质性。

关键词: 数字经济, 经济高质量发展, 空间效应, 空间面板杜宾模型, 中介效应模型, 创业与创新

Abstract:

The digital economy has become a critical factor in promoting high-quality economic development, achieving the digital transformation of the economy, and promoting common prosperity in China. This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of the digital economy on high-quality economic development and constructs two transmission paths via entrepreneurship and innovation. Then, based on the panel data sets of 287 cities at prefecture-level and above in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper analyzes the evolution of digital economy (DE) and high-quality economic development (HQE) from two dimensions of time and space and empirically tests its influencing process mechanism and spatial heterogeneity by using spatial Durbin model and intermediary effect model. The conclusions are drawn as follows. (1) From 2011 to 2018, the levels of DE and HQE in China showed an overall improvement trend, with the kernel density of DE showing different stages. Meanwhile, the levels of DE and HQE have apparent global spatial autocorrelation in terms of spatial characteristics. (2) The DE has formed an obvious H-H (high-high) area in the south-central Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while the HQE has formed a H-H spatial local pattern in the north-central Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. (3) The improvement of the DE is conducive to the HQE of the local economy but has no significant positive impact on the HQE of the neighbouring regions, which means that there may be digital isolation. In the eastern, central and northeastern regions of China, the development of the DE has a significant positive effect on the HQE, which is most evident in the eastern region. From the measurement results of different types of cities, the impact of the DE on the HQE shows a decreasing trend from mega-cities to small and medium-sized cities. (4) The results of the mediating effects model verify that the level of entrepreneurship and innovation is a mediating variable in the DE driving HQE. However, there is significant spatial heterogeneity simultaneously. (5) The paper concludes with how the development of the digital economy can be deployed accordingly at macro and micro levels to achieve sustainable and high-quality economic development.

Key words: digital economy, high-quality economic development, spatial effect, spatial panel Durbin model, mediation effect model, entrepreneurship and innovation

张英浩, 汪明峰, 刘婷婷. 数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的空间效应与影响路径[J]. 地理研究, 2022, 41(7): 1826-1844.

ZHANG Yinghao, WANG Mingfeng, LIU Tingting. Spatial effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development in China and and its influence path[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2022, 41(7): 1826-1844.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标属性
经济高质量发展水平	居民生活	人均GDP (元)	+
		人均教育支出 (元)	+
		万人医院床位数 (张)	+
	产业结构	产业结构高级化	+
		产业结构合理化	+
		生产性服务业占比 (%)	+
	生态效益	工业固废综合利用率 (%)	+
	生态效益	PM2.5 (µg/m³)	-
	经济增长效率	TFP包括实际GDP、资本、劳动力	+
数字经济综合发展水平	数字基础设施	每百人互联网用户数 (户)	+
	数字基础设施	每百人移动互联网用户数 (户)	+
	数字创新要素	计算机服务和软件从业人员占城镇单位从业人员占比 (%)	+
	数字经济需求	人均电信业务总量 (元)	+
	数字融合应用	中国数字普惠金融指数	+

年份	数字经济发展水平		经济高质量发展水平
年份	莫兰指数	Z值	莫兰指数	Z值
2011	0.1626***	4.2238	0.2121***	4.2238
2012	0.1472***	3.7220	0.2649***	3.7220
2013	0.2967***	7.5269	0.1976***	7.5269
2014	0.1764***	4.4127	0.1441***	4.4127
2015	0.1245***	3.2101	0.1673***	3.2101
2016	0.1559***	3.8541	0.2229***	3.8541
2017	0.1244***	3.1872	0.1647***	3.1872
2018	0.1881***	4.7809	0.1722***	4.7809

	混合估计模型	空间固定效应模型	时间固定效应模型	空间和时间双固定效应模型
截距项	-14.6299*** (-37.45)
DE	0.1481*** (6.76)	0.1489*** (6.67)	0.1608*** (7.45)	0.1668*** (7.64)
FDI	-0.0641*** (-12.43)	-0.0682*** (-13.20)	-0.0860*** (-15.97)	-0.0943*** (-14.51)
UL	-0.1759*** (-10.45)	-0.1931*** (-11.23)	-0.1987*** (-11.72)	-0.2228*** (-12.89)
PGC	5.3166*** (33.63)	5.4839*** (33.88)	5.1499*** (33.22)	5.2315*** (33.05)
FC	0.1240*** (11.97)	0.1249*** (11.97)	0.1468*** (14.37)	0.1528*** (14.92)
FDL	0.0126* (1.79)	0.0179** (2.48)	0.0121* (1.77)	0.0184*** (2.65)
R²	0.4716	0.4820	0.4878	0.5046
Log L	-700.0811	-612.5001	-616.3226	-510.4018
LM_Spatial lag	34.8954***	60.4994***	54.1609***	51.5316***
Robust LM_Spatial lag	5.5764***	19.2864***	10.9805***	10.5675***
LM_Spatial error	183.4452***	187.5183***	148.4217***	145.1117***
Robust LM_Spatial error	154.1263***	146.3053***	105.2412***	104.1476***
LR检验联合显著性空间固定效应	211.8416
LR检验联合显著性时间固定效应	204.1967***

	无固定效应	空间固定效应模型	时间固定效应模型	空间和时间双固定效应模型	空间和时间双固定效应模型（误差纠正）
截距项	-13.7318*** (-35.10)
DE	0.1539*** (7.13)	0.1593*** (6.96)	0.1476*** (6.87)	0.1548*** (7.25)	0.1549*** (6.78)
FDI	-0.0965*** (-19.59)	-0.1081*** (-19.74)	-0.0979*** (-18.63)	-0.1092*** (-21.02)	-0.1094*** (-19.69)
UL	-0.2134*** (-12.28)	-0.2198*** (-11.87)	-0.2107*** (-12.17)	-0.2181*** (-12.60)	0.2180*** (-11.77)
PGC	4.8337*** (30.12)	5.1587*** (28.93)	4.9127*** (30.85)	5.1720*** (31.16)	5.1718*** (29.11)
FC	0.1369*** (13.86)	0.1372*** (13.12)	0.1444*** (14.66)	0.1458*** (14.89)	0.1457*** (13.90)
FDL	0.0148** (2.15)	0.0193*** (2.61)	0.0147** (2.15)	0.0192*** (2.80)	0.0192*** (2.61)
W×DE	-0.1157*** (-3.21)	-0.0147 (-0.36)	-0.1190*** (-3.24)	-0.0261 (-0.66)	-0.0274 (-0.65)
W× FDI	0.1221*** (14.50)	0.1340*** (15.27)	0.1109*** (11.43)	0.1207*** (12.53)	0.1211*** (11.77)
W×UL	-0.0200 (-0.81)	0.0312 (1.05)	-0.0128 (-0.49)	0.0140 (0.48)	0.0159 (0.51)
W× PGC	0.3922*** (10.38)	-1.4509*** (-4.53)	0.3207*** (8.25)	-1.1626*** (-3.78)	-1.2035*** (-0.37)
W×FC	0.0042 (0.22)	-0.0350* (-1.74)	0.0471** (2.37)	0.0165 (0.81)	0.0151 (0.70)
W×FDL	0.0001 (0.01)	-0.0011 (-0.09)	0.0024 (0.21)	0.0043 (0.36)	0.0041 (0.75)
W×dep.var.	0.2020*** (8.50)	0.2930*** (10.85)	0.1670*** (6.65)	0.2360*** (8.42)	0.2439*** (8.72)
R²	0.5412	0.5956	0.5522	0.6024	0.6028
Log L	-548.1540	-424.6439	-537.0213	-386.3729	-386.3729
Wald_spatial_lag				196.4289***	175.1855***
LR_spatial_lag				199.2340***	199.2340***
Wald_spatial_error				123.1626***	106.9140***
LR_spatial_error				109.7011***	109.7012***
Hausman					79.4512***

	DE	FDI	UL	PGC	FC	FDL
直接效应	0.1557*** (6.87)	-0.1045*** (-18.74)	-0.2196*** (-12.21)	5.1707*** (29.39)	0.1484*** (13.99)	0.0200*** (2.75)
间接效应	0.0144 (0.28)	0.1206 (9.30)	-0.0468 (-1.23)	0.0782 (0.22)	0.0615** (2.33)	0.0107 (0.69)
总效应	0.1702*** (2.99)	0.0162 (1.12)	-0.2664*** (-6.44)	5.2489*** (13.83)	0.2099*** (7.29)	0.0307* (1.86)

数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的空间效应与影响路径

Spatial effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development in China and and its influence path

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	东部地区	中部地区	西部地区	东北地区	超特大城市	Ⅰ型大城市	Ⅱ型大城市	中小城市
DE	0.2726*** (6.32)	0.1561*** (3.59)	0.0142 (0.36)	0.1418** (2.24)	0.2118** (2.10)	0.1305 (0.85)	0.1110** (2.06)	0.0851*** (4.55)
R²	0.5518	0.6089	0.3122	0.4189	0.5155	0.2675	0.4298	0.2498
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
时间趋势	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	696	640	688	272	112	104	480	1597

	HQE	INTER	HQE	INNOV	HQE
DE	0.1668*** (7.64)	0.0195*** (5.85)	0.1092*** (4.77)	0.0888* (1.80)	0.0942*** (3.41)
INTER			0.0189*** (5.70)
INNOV					0.0747*** (5.88)
R²	0.5046	0.4657	0.5744	0.4207	0.5254
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间趋势	是	是	是	是	是

	HQE	ENTER	HQE	ENPAT	HQE
DE	0.1668*** (7.64)	0.0402** (2.42)	0.1169*** (5.07)	0.0184*** (10.44)	0.1242*** (11.20)
ENTER			0.0324** (1.99)
ENPAT					0.0060*** (3.34)
R²	0.5046	0.4149	0.5443	0.2049	0.4888
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间趋势	是	是	是	是	是

	HQE	INTER	HQE	INNOV	HQE
东部
DE	0.2726*** (6.32)	0.3537* (1.77)	0.0894*** (4.72)	0.1551*** (3.01)	0.2731*** (6.33)
INTER			0.2652*** (6.12)
INNOV					0.0902*** (4.74)
R²	0.5518	0.4231	0.5574	0.5597	0.5566
中部
DE	0.1561*** (3.59)	0.4391 (1.47)	0.1481*** (3.42)	0.2795*** (3.62)	0.1519*** (0.77)
INTER			0.0156*** (2.72)
INNOV					0.0084 (0.77)
R²	0.6089	0.2701	0.6183	0.4521	0.6136
西部
DE	0.0142 (0.36)	0.4133 (0.50)	0.0153 (0.40)	0.1556*** (5.60)	0.0071 (0.19)
INTER			0.0268*** (7.89)
INNOV					0.0945*** (7.58)
R²	0.3122	0.1855	0.3512	0.2040	0.3919
东北
DE	0.1418** (2.24)	0.6758 (1.30)	0.1271** (2.01)	0.2422*** (6.97)	0.1338** (2.15)
INTER			0.01425* (2.01)
INNOV					0.0619*** (3.19)
R²	0.4189	0.2526	0.4307	0.3326	0.4477
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间趋势	是	是	是	是	是

	HQE	INTER	HQE	INNOV	HQE
超特大型城市
DE	0.2118** (2.10)	0.1150*** (3.99)	0.1868** (2.07)	0.1877** (2.06)	0.1933** (2.13)
INTER			0.0440* (1.65)
INNOV					0.1596*** (5.42)
R²	0.5155	0.4377	0.5785	0.4130	0.5192
Ⅰ型大城市
DE	0.1305 (0.85)	0.0771* (1.75)	0.1138 (0.74)	0.1697*** (7.17)	0.0365** (2.04)
INTER			0.01953 (0.25)
INNOV					0.1070*** (5.58)
R²	0.2675	0.1801	0.2347	0.2668	0.2912
Ⅱ型大城市
DE	0.1110** (2.06)	0.1179 (0.49)	0.1345*** (4.21)	0.1277*** (3.87)	0.0567*** (4.47)
INTER			0.040 (0.75)
INNOV					0.1069*** (5.57)
R²	0.4298	0.2998	0.4499	0.4515	0.5365
中小城市
DE	0.0851*** (4.55)	0.1159 (1.31)	0.0546** (1.97)	0.01228 (0.70)	0.0659** (2.37)
INTER			0.0066*** (3.82)
INNOV					0.0415*** (5.02)
R²	0.2498	0.1400	0.3893	0.1695	0.3992
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间趋势	是	是	是	是	是

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