地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 2016-2029.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210839

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“一带一路”沿线地区自然灾害危险性与灾损空间格局研究

王紫薇1,2(), 蔡红艳1,2(), 段兆轩3, 郎焱卿1,2, 杨小唤1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101
    2.中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3.东南大学 建筑学院,南京 210096
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-17 接受日期:2021-11-12 出版日期:2022-07-10 发布日期:2022-07-07
  • 通讯作者: 蔡红艳（1983-）,女,黑龙江五常人,副研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事人地关系遥感与时空分析研究。E-mail: caihy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王紫薇（1997-）,女,山东济南人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为地理信息系统技术与应用研究。E-mail: wangzw.19s@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA20010203);国家自然科学基金项目(41771460)

Spatial pattern of natural disaster hazard and loss in the Belt and Road region

WANG Ziwei1,2(), CAI Hongyan1,2(), DUAN Zhaoxuan3, LANG Yanqing1,2, YANG Xiaohuan1,2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
  • Received:2021-09-17 Accepted:2021-11-12 Published:2022-07-10 Online:2022-07-07

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摘要：

灾害危险性和灾害损失是区域灾害风险评估的重要内容。以往研究大多基于国别尺度,无法表征国家内部和经济带沿线的灾害损失特征。本文基于“一带一路”沿线地区的洪涝、干旱、风暴、地震4类主要自然灾害的历史数据,提出灾害数据空间尺度下推方法,构建了基于省级尺度的灾害数据库,从灾害发生频次与灾害损失的角度,探讨了“一带一路”沿线地区主要灾害危险性和人口、经济损失的空间分布特征以及综合灾损高值区的主导灾害。研究表明2003—2018年间,“一带一路”沿线地区灾害发生广泛,各类灾害危险性和损失具有明显的集聚特征：81.4%区域均有灾害发生,洪涝灾害发生范围最广,风暴主要发生在沿海地区,干旱灾害集中在中国北部和泰国等地,地震多分布于地震带沿线;全域人口损失以洪涝（53%）、干旱（26%）为主,经济损失以洪涝（49%）、地震（23%）为主,各地区人口和经济损失因区域内人口和经济基础不同存在空间差异;大部分区域损失由单一灾害主导,仅小部分地区损失受多种灾害共同影响。研究结果提示我们应针对各灾害高危区、灾损高值区及各地区主导灾害制定相适应的防灾减灾措施,为未来“一带一路”的自然灾害风险防范与综合减灾、重大基础设施建设等提供支撑。

关键词: 一带一路, 自然灾害, 危险性, 灾害损失, 空间尺度下推, 主导灾害

Abstract:

Disaster hazard and disaster loss are important contents of regional disaster risk assessment. Based on the historical data of four major natural disasters (floods, droughts, earthquakes and storms) in the Belt and Road (B&R) region, a spatial scale downsizing method was proposed, the spatial patterns of the four major disaster hazards, population and economic losses were analyzed, and the dominant disasters of comprehensive high-loss zones were further explored. From 2003 to 2018, the major natural disasters occurred widely in the study area, with 81.4% of the region suffering from disasters. The hazards and their losses had obvious aggregation characteristics. The occurrence range of flood, which accounted for 71.2% of the total study area, was the widest. And the high-risk areas mainly occurred in areas affected by the monsoon or atmospheric circulation and were prone to sudden heavy precipitation in summer. Drought disasters mainly occurred in the southeast of the B&R region especially in northern China and Thailand. The spatial distribution of losses caused by drought disasters was relatively scattered. Storm disasters mainly occurred in coastal areas strongly affected by atmospheric cyclones and typhoons, and the losses were concentrated in densely populated and urban areas. Earthquake disasters mainly occurred in the areas near the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic zone and the Circum-Pacific seismic zone where crustal movements are active at the junction of the plates. The spatial patterns of population and economic losses caused by disasters were relatively similar. The population losses of the whole region were mainly caused by floods (53%) and droughts (26%), and the economic losses were mainly caused by floods (49%) and earthquakes (23%). The population and economic losses of various regions varied due to the differences in regional population and economic foundations. The disaster losses of most regions were resulted from a dominant disaster, while losses in some regions were resulted from multiple disasters. Among the population losses, the areas dominated by multiple disasters are relatively small (6.9%), including three main types: flood-storm, flood-drought, and flood-storm-drought. Among the economic losses, there are five dominant types: flood-heavy rain, flood-drought, flood-earthquake, storm-drought, flood-storm-earthquake, accounting for about 16.7%. The results suggest that we should implement appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation measures for the region, according to the high-hazard zones and high-loss zones of each disaster as well as the dominant disaster of each region, to minimize the disaster risks in key areas and major project areas in the B&R region.

Key words: the Belt and Road region, natural disasters, hazard, disaster losses, spatial scale downsizing, dominant disaster