地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1591-1601.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201309002

• 气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于HASM的省级尺度气候与植被生态系统模拟分析

杜正平, 范泽孟, 岳天祥   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-17 修回日期:2013-05-10 出版日期:2013-09-10 发布日期:2013-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 岳天祥,研究员,博士生导师,E-mail:yue@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:yue@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:杜正平(1976-),博士生,主要研究方向为资源环境数学模型与数值模拟。E-mail:duzp@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家杰出青年基金项目(40825003);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950904,2009CB421105);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41023010);国家自然科学基金项目(41271406)

Simulation of climate-vegetation system based on HASM method on a provincial scale

DU Zhengping, FAN Zemeng, YUE Tianxiang   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2012-09-17 Revised:2013-05-10 Online:2013-09-10 Published:2013-09-10

摘要: 区域气候要素的空间模拟精度直接关系到区域气候-植被生态系统的模拟精度。针对这一问题,运用HASM方法对江西省气候要素进行空间模拟,而且与IDW、Kriging、Spline等传统经典方法模拟结果的对比分析表明,HASM方法的模拟精度最高。因此,在10年和30年时间尺度上,运用HASM方法分别完成江西过去60年的平均气温、平均降水和潜在蒸散的空间模拟,并采用Holdridge生命地带(HLZ)模型分别实现了江西不同时间尺度的HLZ生态系统时空变化模拟。模拟结果显示,在1961-2010年期间,20%左右的HLZ生态系统发生了变化,平均气温上升是HLZ生态系统发生变化的主要驱动因子。另外,在江西省出现的7种HLZ生态系统类型中,暖温带湿润森林类型受平均气温上升的影响最大。

关键词: 曲面建模, 气候变化, Holdridge模型, 气候-植被生态系统

Abstract: The spatial simulation quality of climate change directly affects simulation accuracy of climate-vegetation system at regional level. In this paper, mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of Jiangxi province are simulated by methods of HASM, IDW, Kriging and Spline. The cross-validation results show that HASM has the highest accuracy. The MAT, MAP and mean annual potential evapotranspiration ratio (MAPER) of Jiangxi in the last 60 years are respectively simulated at time resolutions of 10 years and 30 years. The climate-vegetation system of Jiangxi is simulated by running Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model on the simulated climatic surfaces of MAT, MAP and MAPER at the time resolutions of 10 years and 30 years. From 1961 to 2010, both MAT and MAP in Jiangxi went up. The changed lattices of HLZ ecosystems was about 20% in Jiangxi province. The change of HLZ ecosystems was mainly driven by the climate warming. The warm temperate moist forest had the most significant change compared with the other six HLZ ecosystems.

Key words: surface modeling, climate change, Holdridge life zone model, climate-vegetation ecosystem