年代际尺度海岸演化机制与动力—统计建模方法

doi:10.11821/dlyj201309004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 发展中长时间尺度的海岸演化预测方法与机理模型,是目前国际海岸演化研究领域关注的焦点和最具挑战性课题。本文系统性地回顾了近半个世纪以来不同时间尺度海岸演化模式的研究发展历程和成果,从动力机制和时间尺度两个方面对海岸演化机理模型存在的主要建模瓶颈问题进行了系统总结。通过对渤海湾西岸近一个半世纪以来海岸演化机制的初步分析,提出了以泥沙收支、环流输送、波浪掀沙以及波气候变化等要素作为年代际尺度海岸演化主要驱动因子,基于驱动力概化与统计升尺度有机衔接的年代际尺度海岸演化机理模型的动力—统计建模方法框架新思路,为推动海岸演化动力学理论体系和中长时间尺度海岸演化预测方法创新,提供了重要科学依据和借鉴。

关键词: 海岸演化, 年代际尺度, 动力机制, 动力—统计方法, 机理模型

Abstract: Coastal evolution due to both natural and human-induced causes or factors can be variable over a wide range of different temporal and spatial scales. There are significant differences among evolution processes, influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms, as well as the different fundamental theories and technologies corresponding to the related scales. It is becoming a focus and the most challenging topic in the international field of coastal evolution research to scientifically understand coastal evolution processes and dynamic mechanisms at the macro and mega-time scales, but there is a lack of systematic theory study on the field. This paper reviews some conclusions and questions from the research content and method, and analyzes reasons of the limitation in the coastal evolution dynamic process model. On the basis of profoundly understanding of long-term changes of discharge and suspended load from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea, and the deeply comprehending sediment budget in each coastal littoral cell of the western Bohai Bay and regional wave climate characteristics at different evolution phases in the recently 60 years, theories and methods of geomorphology, coastal morphodynamics and numerical modeling are comprehensively used in this paper to study the decadal time scale coastal evolution processes of the western Bohai Bay dominated by morphodynamic factors such as sediment budget, suspended sediment transport under the tide-induced and wind-driven residual circulations, wave climate change, sediment winnowing caused by wave etc. The objective of this paper is to explore the dynamical-statistical modeling for the decadal time scale coastal evolution with integration of statistically up-scaling and morphodynamic reduction and develop a decadal time-scale coastal evolution process model for the western Bohai Bay with integration of sediment budget and sediment winnowing caused by wave. Diagnostic experiments on coastal evolutions at different spatial and temporal time scales, discharge and suspended load flux and wave climate scenarios will be conducted to explore the responses of coastal evolution to sediment budget and coastal morphodynamics. Dynamic mechanisms and impacts of sediment budget, suspended sediment transport under the tide-induced and wind-driven residual circulations, sediment winnowing caused by wave and wave climate change on the decadal time-scale coastal evolution of the western Bohai Bay will be diagnostically analyzed. This would promote the innovative development on theoretical system and prediction approaches of coastal evolution morphodynamic mechanisms in the field of the macro- and mega-time scale coastal evolution research.

Key words: coastal evolution, decadal time scale, dynamic mechanism, dynamical-statistical approach, numerical modeling

李国胜, 廖和平. 年代际尺度海岸演化机制与动力—统计建模方法[J]. 地理研究, 2013, 32(9): 1613-1622.

LI Guosheng, LIAO Heping. Modeling decadal time-scale coastal evolution of the western Bohai Bay by the dynamical-statistical approach[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2013, 32(9): 1613-1622.

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