地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1679-1687.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201309010

• 城市与产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

21世纪以来中国城镇化动力机制分析

魏冶, 修春亮, 孙平军   

  1. 东北师范大学地理科学学院, 长春130024
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-20 修回日期:2013-03-19 出版日期:2013-09-10 发布日期:2013-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 修春亮(1964-),男,吉林舒兰人,教授,博士生导师,研究领域为城市地理、经济地理、城市与区域规划。E-mail:xiucl@nenu.edu.cn E-mail:xiucl@nenu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:魏冶(1983-),吉林梨树人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市与区域规划及GIS应用研究。E-mail:weiy742@nenu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41071109)

Dynamic mechanism of urbanization in China since 2000

WEI Ye, XIU Chunliang, SUN Pingjun   

  1. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
  • Received:2012-06-20 Revised:2013-03-19 Online:2013-09-10 Published:2013-09-10

摘要: 以省区为基本单元,借鉴欧向军等人提出的四维分析视角,构建综合指标体系,结合面板数据分析、时序分析、空间分析等方法,对2000年以来我国城镇化发展的动力机制加以考察。面板数据分析发现市场力、行政力以及内源力作用较强,而外向力作用较弱,反映了我国城镇化动力机制的内生性特点。时序分析发现新世纪以来城镇化动力机制具有较强的动态性与趋势性,虽然金融危机会对动力组成结构产生一定的扰动,但是在长时间尺度上,内源力作用逐渐上升而行政力作用逐渐下降将成为必然的趋势。而空间分析显示,市场力与内源力具有一定的历史依赖性,优势地区将继续保持领先,落后地区继续维持落后状态。随着市场力的不断稳固和内源力的持续增长,城镇化不平衡发展的趋势将加剧。增加行政力的宏观调控作用,促进城镇化动力的多元化是缓解这一不平衡的重要策略。

关键词: 城镇化动力机制, 面板数据, 时空分析, 多元化动力, 中国

Abstract: In four-dimensional analytical perspective, panel data were used to analyze the dynamic mechanism of urbanization in China since 2000 based on the provincial units.
There are three obvious improvements from the previous studies in terms of model building. First, urbanization rate was used to replace the synthetic index system, which helped to eliminate the excessive correlations between synthetic urbanization level and driving forces. Second, the synthetic index system was used to describe the driving force instead of single index. Third, the private economy was integrated into the internal force, while the previous studies only considered the rural economy.
In this paper, three analysis methods were employed including panel data analysis, temporal analysis and spatial analysis. The panel data analysis demonstrated that market force, government force, internal force and external force are main forces driving the urbanization of China in the period. Among the four driving forces, the external force was relatively weak, which indicated that the dynamic mechanism was characterized by endogeneity. As an extended analysis, temporal analysis and spatial analysis were used to understand the spatial-temporal process of the mechanism. The temporal analysis revealed that the structure of mechanism was changing all the time and had a clear trend. The internal force was getting stronger, and the government force was getting weaker in overall, if we exclude the interference of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The spatial analysis delineated the spatial patterns of the driving forces. From these spatial patterns we found that market force and internal force had certain historical dependences, namely the developed regions will stay ahead of backward regions. Thus, combined with the variation trend of internal force and government force, the inequality of urbanization of China is supposed to be strengthened gradually in the near future. Therefore, we recommend a diversified urbanization dynamic mechanism in order to relief the inequality.

Key words: urbanization dynamic mechanism, panel data, spatial-temporal analysis, multiple driving forces