地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1708-1720.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201309013

• 城市与产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国制造业分布的地理变迁与驱动因素

石敏俊1,2, 杨晶1,2, 龙文1,2, 魏也华3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学管理学院, 北京100049;
    2. 中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心, 北京100190;
    3. 美国犹他大学地理系, 美国盐湖城84112-9155
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-08 修回日期:2013-05-05 出版日期:2013-09-10 发布日期:2013-09-10
  • 作者简介:石敏俊(1964-),中国科学院大学管理学院教授,中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究副主任,主要从事区域经济与绿色发展的研究。E-mail:mjshi1964@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71173212,70921061)

Changes in geographical distribution of Chinese manufacturing sectors and its driving forces

SHI Minjun1,2, YANG Jing1,2, LONG Wen1,2, Denis Yehua WEI3   

  1. 1. School of Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2. Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
    3. Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112-9155, USA
  • Received:2012-09-08 Revised:2013-05-05 Online:2013-09-10 Published:2013-09-10

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摘要： 近年来中国制造业分布格局呈现出新的动向。以2004-2005年为转折点,以食品轻纺行业为主的部分制造业部门开始从沿海省份向中西部省份转移,北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东、福建等省份的产业份额明显下降,安徽、江西、湖南、河南、四川等中西部省份的产业份额趋于增加。在地市尺度上,制造业分布变化呈现出"西进北上"的特点,具体表现为产业份额从沿海发达城市转向沿海省份内部发展相对滞后的地市、以及中西部省份内部产业基础较好且本地市场规模较大的地市。中部地区的重点开发区域已成为承接产业转移的重要载体。沿海地区劳动力、土地等要素成本上升导致要素成本的区域差异不断扩大,与此同时中西部地区市场邻近和供给邻近逐步得到改善。沿海地区和中西部地区之间要素成本差异的扩大和贸易成本差异的缩小,使得贸易成本和要素成本的均衡关系发生逆转性变化,这是驱动中国产业分布地理变迁的核心因素。

关键词: 制造业分布, 产业转移, 驱动因素, 要素成本的区域差异, 趋势聚类分析, 中国

Abstract: Geographical changes of manufacturing sectors are emerging in China. Since the period 2004-2005, some manufacturing sectors have shifted from the coastal to the inland areas. The shares of manufacturing sectors in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian have decreased obviously. In contrast, the shares of manufacturing sectors in some inland provinces such as Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Henan and Sichuan have increased. At a prefecture level, the shares of manufacturing sectors have shifted from the developed coastal cities to the developing coastal cities and the inland cities with relatively large local markets and existing industrial foundation. In particular, the shares of manufacturing sectors have increased significantly in the key development zones of central China. Rising labor and land costs in the coastal areas have widened the regional gap between the coastal and inland areas. On the other hand, market access and supply access in the inland areas have been improved due to economic development and income growth. Growing regional gap of production cost and reducing gap of trade cost between the coastal and inland areas resulted in a reversing change in balance between production cost and trade cost, which has led to the geographical changes of manufacturing sectors in China.

Key words: geographical distribution of manufacturing sectors, industrial transfer, driving force, regional gap of factor cost, trend clustering analysis