地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (12): 2215-2221.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201312016

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

海平面上升背景下黄浦江极端风暴洪水危险性分析

殷杰1, 尹占娥2, 于大鹏3, 许世远4   

  1. 1. 浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院, 杭州310018;
    2. 上海师范大学地理系, 上海200234;
    3. 拉夫堡大学地理系, 莱斯特LE11 3TU;
    4. 华东师范大学地理系, 上海200062
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-13 修回日期:2013-10-20 出版日期:2013-12-10 发布日期:2013-12-10
  • 作者简介:殷杰(1983- ),男,江苏姜堰人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市自然地理与灾害风险管理研究。E-mail:rjay9@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41201550,41371493,41071324,71373084);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJCZH257);上海市教委创新研究项目(13YZ061,13ZZ035)

Hazard analysis of extreme storm flooding in the context of sea level rise:A case study of Huangpu river basin

YIN Jie1, YIN Zhan'e2, YU Dapeng3, XU Shiyuan4   

  1. 1. School of tourism and city management, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China;
    2. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China;
    3. Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, UK;
    4. Department of Geography, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2013-05-13 Revised:2013-10-20 Online:2013-12-10 Published:2013-12-10

摘要: 黄浦江流域是典型的风暴洪水脆弱区。随着气候变化和海平面上升,未来该区域可能遭受更为严重的灾害影响。从海平面绝对上升、构造沉降和压实沉降三个方面预测了2030 年和2050 年该区域海平面相对上升值为170 mm和390 mm。在此基础上,结合最大天文潮位值和最大风暴增水值,估算了2030 年和2050 年极端风暴洪水位将分别达到7.17 m和7.39 m。基于高精度洪水数值模型开展了2030 和2050 年两种极端风暴洪水情景模拟,结果显示黄浦江两岸地区均可能被淹没,上游地区较中下游地区受淹将更为严重。进而提出未来研究中需重点关注不确定性分析、防汛墙溃堤淹没情景分析和风暴频率—强度变化等领域。

关键词: 海平面上升, 极端风暴洪水, 黄浦江, 危险性分析, 上海

Abstract: The Huangpu river basin is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to storm induced flooding. In the future, climate change and associated sea level rise are very likely to cause negative impacts on this area. Considering estuary sea level rise, tectonic subsidence and compaction of sediments, two projections of relative sea level rise were presented for 2030 (170 mm) and 2050 (390 mm). And then, extreme storm flood elevations were generated for 2030 (7.17 m) and 2050 (7.39 m) using a simplified algebraic summation of the relative sea-level rise, monitoring maximum storm surge and the maximum astronomical high tide level. A 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model (FloodMap) was used to simulate the two scenarios. The results indicated that all the riparian regions of both sides of Huangpu river would be inundated, and the inundation depths gradually reduced from upstream to downstream. Finally, future research needs, such as uncertainty analysis, floodwall breach inundation scenarios, and changes in intensity and frequency of storms, were suggested.

Key words: sea level rise, extreme storm flood, Huangpu River, hazard analysis, Shanghai