过去50年内蒙古极端气候事件时空格局特征

doi:10.11821/dlyj201401002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了掌握内蒙古极端气候事件的发生趋势与时空格局，本文运用内蒙古自治区境内46个国家级气象站点的日值记录数据，计算与植被生长的水热条件及寒旱灾害直接相关的极端气候事件指数，分析过去50年内蒙古温度和降水气候事件的时空演变特征。研究结果表明，研究区极端温度事件的发生频率与持续时间迅速变化发生于20世纪90年代以来，60年代至80年代末呈平稳态势。表征低温事件的霜日日数（FD0）、冷昼日数（TX10p）、冷夜日数（TN10p）、冷持续指数（CSDI）等指数均呈现下降趋势，同时表征高温事件的夏日指数（SU25）、作物生长期（GSL）、暖昼日数（TX90p）、暖夜日数（TN90p）、热持续指数（WSDI）则均呈上升趋势。与极端高温事件发生频率的加剧在90年代初开始凸显不同，表征强降水事件发生频率和强度的极端降水指标的显著变化发生在近10年。研究区极端温度指数过去50年的变化过程几乎没有明显的空间分异特征，但是在位于农牧交错区的部分站点的强降水事件呈现出与大多数站点不同的特征，最近10年的强降水事件高于前一时段，而其他多数站点最近10年的极端降水指数均低于前一时段。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端温度, 极端降水, 内蒙古

Abstract: Frequently occurrences of extreme climatic events in recent years have become a focus of sustainability research, because they threaten the ecosystem balance and even the sustainable development of social-ecological system. In this study, by the daily record data of 46 national meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia during the past 50 years, 15 indexes that characterize the frequency and probability of extreme climatic events are calculated with RclimDex (1.0). The trends and spatial pattern of extreme climatic events across this region were obtained. The results indicate that frost day (FD0), the percentile value of cold night (TN10p), the percentile value of cold day (TX10p) and the duration of coldness (CSDI) that characterize the extremely low temperature presented downward trends; meanwhile, summer day (SU25), crop growth period (GSL), the percentile value of warm night, the percentile value of warm day (TX90p) and the duration of warmness (WSDI) that characterize the extremely high temperature showed upward trends. Since the 1990s, the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events increased fast in comparison with the smooth trends from the 1960s to the late 1980s. Different from extreme temperature events, obvious extreme precipitation events variation started since the latest 10 years, heavy precipitation and 5-daily maximum precipitation were both much lower than those in the preceding 40 years. Extreme temperature indexes in 46 sites in the study area almost had the same variation process and there was no clear spatial differentiation. However, at some sites located in the farming-pastoral ecozone, heavy precipitation events occurred more frequently in recent 10 years than in the preceding 40 years, while the heavy precipitation events in recent 10 years occured less frequently than in the preceding periods at the other sites.

Key words: climate change, extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, Inner Mongolia

闫慧敏, 陈伟娜, 杨方兴, 刘纪远, 胡云锋, 冀咏赞. 过去50年内蒙古极端气候事件时空格局特征[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(1): 13-22.

YAN Huimin, CHEN Weina, YANG Fangxing, LIU Jiyuan, HU Yunfeng, JI Yongzan. The spatial and temporal analysis of extreme climatic events in Inner Mongolia during the past 50 years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(1): 13-22.

参考文献

[1] IPCC. Climate change 2007: The Scientific basis. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[1] Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N et al. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature, 2005, 437: 529-533.
[2] Jentsch A. Extreme climatic events in ecological research. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2006, 4: 235-236.
[3] Smith, Melinda D. The ecological role of climate extremes: Current understanding and future prospects. Journal of ecology, 2011, 99(3): 651-655.
[4] Anderson R G, Canadell J G, Randerson J T et al. Biophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2010, 9(3): 174-182.
[5] Endfield G H. The resilience and adaptive capacity of social-environmental systems in Colonial Mexico. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012, 109(10): 3676-3681.
[6] 方修琦, 王媛, 朱晓禧. 气候变暖的适应行为与黑龙江省夏季低温冷害的变化. 地理研究, 2005, 24(5): 664-672.[Fang Xiuqi, Wang Yuan, Zhu Xiaoxi. Change of cool summer hazard under an adaptation behavior to the climate warming in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2005, 24(5): 664-672.]
[7] Easterling D R, Evens J L, Groisman P Y et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81(3): 417-425.
[8] 任国玉, 封国林, 严中伟. 中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15 (4): 337-353.[Ren Guoyu, Feng Guolin, Yan Zhongwei. Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in Mainland China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15 (4): 337-353.]
[9] 路云阁, 李双成, 蔡运龙. 近40年气候变化及其空间分异的多尺度研究3/4(3/4)以内蒙古自治区为例. 地理科学, 2004, 24 (4): 432-438.[Lu YunGe, Li ShuangCheng, Cai YunLong. Multiscale studies on climatic change and it's spatial heterogeneity in recent 40 years: A case study in inner Mongolia. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2004, 24 (4): 432-438.]
[10] 裴浩, Alex Cannon, Paul Whitfield, 等. 近40年内蒙古候平均气温变化趋势. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(4): 443-450.[Pei Hao, Alex Cannon, Paul Whitfield et al. Pentad average temperature changes of inner Mongolia during recent 40 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2009, 20(4): 443-450.]
[11] 韩芳, 牛建明, 刘朋涛, 等. 气候变化对内蒙古荒漠草原牧草气候生产力的影响. 中国草地学报, 2010, 32(5): 57-65.[Han Fang, Niu Jianming, Liu Pengtao et al. Impact of climate change on forage potential climatic productivity in desert steppe in Inner Mongolia. Chinese Journal of Grassland, 2010, 32(5): 57-65.]
[12] 高涛, 肖苏君, 乌兰. 近47年(1961-2007年) 内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征. 内蒙古气象, 2009(1): 3-8.[Gao Tao, Xiao Sunjun, Wulan. Temporal-spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperature in inner Mongolia for the last 47 Years (1961-2007). Inner Mongolia Meteorological, 2009(1): 3-8.]
[13] 赵媛媛, 何春阳, 李晓兵, 等. 干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(1): 123-135.[Zhao Yuanyuan, He Chunyang, Li Xiaobing et al. Impacts of land use and climate change on cultivated land potential productivity in Farming-Pastoral Zone of North China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(1): 123-135.]
[14] 刘纪远, 张增祥, 庄大方, 等. 20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析. 地理研究, 2003, 22(1): 1-12.[Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhuang Dafang et al. A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land-use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(1): 1-12.]
[15] 刘纪远, 张增祥, 徐新良, 等. 21 世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析. 地理学报, 2009, 64(12): 1411-1420.[Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Xu Xinliang et al. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the Early 21st Century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(12): 1411-1420.]
[16] Pielke RA, Marland G, Betts R A, et al. The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Philosophical transactions-Royal Society. Mathematical, Physical and engineering sciences, 2002, 360: 1705-1719.
[17] Werth D, Avissar R. The local and global effects of Amazon deforestation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2002, 107: LBA55. 1-55. 8.
[18] Pitman A J, Narisma G T, Pielke R A, et al. Impact of land cover change on the climate of southwest Western Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004, 109: D18109.
[19] Govindasamy B, Duffy P B, Caldeira K. Land use changes and Northern Hemisphere cooling. Geophysical Research Letter, 2001, 28: 291-294.
[20] Jonathan A Patz, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrun, Tracey Holloway, et al. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature, 2005, 438(17): 310-317.
[21] GLP. 科学计划与实施战略. 2005. IGBP 报告No. 53/IHDP 报告No. 19, IGBP 秘书处, 斯德哥尔摩64pp.[GLP. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. 2005. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19, IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm, 64pp.]
[22] 张倩. 牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性: 以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例. 社会学研究, 2011(6): 171-245.[Zhang Qian. Herder's social vulnerability to climate change: A case of desert grassland in Inner Mongolia. Sociological Studies, 2011(6): 171-245.]
[23] 刘瞳, 黄河清, 闫慧敏, 等. 北方农牧交错区降水过程的持续性特征与干旱发生趋势. 资源科学, 2012, 34(5): 940-947.[Liu Tong, Huang Heqing, Yan Huimin et al. The persistence of precipitation series and the trend of drought in Northern Agro-pastoral Zone. Resources Science, 2012, 34(5): 940-947.]
[24] Peterson T C, Folland C, Gruza G, et al. Report on the Activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998-2001. Southampto, UK: International CLIVAR Project Office 2001, 143.
[25] Xuebin Zhang, Feng Yang. RClimDex (1. 0), User Manual. Climate Research Branch, Environment Canada. 2004.
[26] Deo R C, Syktus J I, McAlpine C A, et al. Impact of historical land cover change on daily indices of climate extremes including droughts in eastern Australia. Geophysical Research Letter, 2009, 36, L08705, doi: 10. 1029/2009GL037666.