地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 71-82.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201401007

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于可达性分析的高速公路投资空间溢出效应

蒋海兵1, 张文忠1, 祁毅2, 周亮3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 南京大学建筑与城市规划学院, 南京210093;
    3. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京210093
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-02 修回日期:2013-04-06 出版日期:2014-01-10 发布日期:2014-01-10
  • 通讯作者: 张文忠（1966- ），男，内蒙古呼和浩特人，研究员，博士生导师，主要从事城市和区域发展研究。E-mail：zhangwz@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:蒋海兵（1978- ），男，江苏建湖人，讲师，博士后，中国地理学会会员（S110008070M），从事城市和区域发展研究。E-mail：jianghb@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点基金项目（41230632）；国家自然科学基金青年项目（41301108，41001093）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目（2011M500374）

Using accessibility indicators and GIS to assess spatial spillovers of expressway investment：A case study in Jiangsu Province

JIANG Haibing1, ZHANG Wenzhong1, QI Yi2, ZHOU Liang3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    3. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2012-09-02 Revised:2013-04-06 Online:2014-01-10 Published:2014-01-10

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摘要： 基于可达性分析方法，探讨新建交通基础设施投资给邻近地区带来的空间溢出效应及其特征。以2005-2009年江苏省各市新建高速公路为例，通过GIS 空间分析模型、经济潜力指数及情景分析法，得到江苏各市新建高速公路投资建设带来的经济潜力收益值，并在此基础上应用平均溢出效应模型得到区际可达性溢出矩阵，结合各地交通投资与溢出效应货币化模型将区际溢出矩阵货币化，得到区际交通投资矩阵来重新分配各市交通投资成本，以此表示交通投资空间溢出效应。结果显示：可达性溢出效应传递基本上随着到新建高速公路距离增加而衰减，然而各市新建高速公路在邻近地区产生非均衡性的溢出效应，新建高速公路方向、区位以及高速公路网络体系影响了溢出效应强度分布。中间地区交通建设更有助于推动边缘地区可达性水平提高，其交通投资溢出效应普遍比边缘地区规模大，溢出投资占实际投资比重高，区域边缘地区多数为溢出效应的输入地区。

关键词: 交通基础设施, 可达性, 空间溢出, 交通投资

Abstract: Choosing Jiangsu province as the study region, we measure spatial spillovers of 2005-2009 expressway investment based on the key methods including accessibility analysis, extract method, scenario analysis method, region spillover model and inter-regional spillover matrix. Then we monetize spatial spillovers by distributing the costs of the new incremental infrastructures according to the regional distribution of the potential accessibility benefits. Firstly we use network analysis in GIS toolbox to calculate and map economic potential benefit values between the two scenarios based on extract method and then based on these values we can acquire accessibility spillover matrix according to region spillover model. Secondly this matrix is monetized by distributing the costs of the investment in the new incremental infrastructures of the region according to the regional distribution of the economic potential benefits. Thirdly we apply the inter-regional spillover matrix of investments flows to characterize the "inner", "export" and "import" values of each type of the regional expressway investments based on the spatial spillover effects. Furthermore we can estimate the real investment as well as its differences with actual investment. By applying the above methods, we can analyze the potential beneficiaries of the new infrastructure spillovers effects and their spatial distribution.
The result shows that intensity of accessibility spillover effects tends to be weak as the distance to new infrastructure increases on the whole. In addition the new expressway investment gives rise to non-equilibrium effects in the neighbouring regions since the direction and location of the new lines distorts the effect of the distance. Secondly intensity of accessibility spillover effects is more higher in the regions located in the centre than in the periphery of Jiangsu. Besides the periphery is the main region where the spillover effects are imported. Thirdly the transport infrastructure investment in central region can improve the accessibility level of the peripheral region. Furthermore the transport investment of middle region in north Jiangsu can be exported and bring benefits to other regions in Jiangsu by means of spillover effects. At last, as far as the relationship between the spillover and spatial equity is concerned, the downstream effect is greater than upstream effect during Jiangsu expressway building, which explains that spillover effects of all new infrastructure are in favour of narrowing the gap between regional accessibility. The downstream of new infrastructure located in peripheral region is lower, opposite to higher downstream in central region.

Key words: transportation infrastructure, accessibility, spatial spillover, transport investment