地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 467-477.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201403006
高超1,2, 张正涛1, 陈实1, 刘青1
收稿日期:
2013-01-08
修回日期:
2013-10-10
出版日期:
2014-03-10
发布日期:
2014-03-10
作者简介:
高超(1978-),男,安徽省全椒人,博士,副教授,主要从事流域气候变化和水文响应研究。E-mail:gaoqinchao1@163.com
基金资助:
GAO Chao1,2, ZHANG Zhengtao1, CHEN Shi1, LIU Qing1
Received:
2013-01-08
Revised:
2013-10-10
Online:
2014-03-10
Published:
2014-03-10
摘要: 利用CCLM高分辨率区域气候模式RCP4.5情景预估数据与淮河流域1960-2005年日尺度气象观测资料,对比分析模式在试验期(1960-2005年)和预估期(2006-2040年)的模拟能力。结果表明:①试验期模式数据能较准确地模拟流域逐月平均温度时间变化特征,相关系数达0.99(通过95%置信度检验);日均温空间分布特征相关系数达0.72;但在南部高海拔地区(安徽省霍山县和金寨县)精度不高;极端最高(低)气温的空间相关性达0.77(0.88)。②模式在试验期模拟的逐月平均降水量总体趋势与实测值变化一致,相关系数达0.63(通过95%置信度检验);对干旱的模拟与观测数据存在一定误差,但整体趋势与其一致;年均降水量和极端强降水空间分布相关系数分别达0.90和0.93,模拟效果较好;整体上,模式对温度的模拟效果要好于降水模拟。③RCP4.5情景下,空间尺度上淮河流域未来温度和降水与观测期相比变幅小,时间尺度上年均降水量无显著变化,平均气温年际变化率约0.21℃/10a,极端高温持续增长,低温持续下降。
高超, 张正涛, 陈实, 刘青. RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(3): 467-477.
GAO Chao, ZHANG Zhengtao, CHEN Shi, LIU Qing. The high-resolution simulation of climate change model under RCP4.5 scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(3): 467-477.
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