地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 478-489.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201403007

• 土地利用与生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国区际间主要农产品虚拟水流动格局稳定性

孙才志1, 韩雪1, 秦晓楠2   

  1. 1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心，大连116029;
    2. 大连理工大学管理与经济学部，大连116024
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-24 修回日期:2013-09-04 出版日期:2014-03-10 发布日期:2014-03-10
  • 作者简介:孙才志（1970-），男，山东烟台市人，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为水资源评价与管理。E-mail：suncaizhi@lnnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目（11BJY063）；教育部新世纪优秀人才项目（NCET-13-0844）

Research on pattern sability of virtual water flow embedded in major crops trade among regions in China

SUN Caizhi1, HAN Xue1, QIN Xiaonan2   

  1. 1. KRI-Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China;
    2. Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2013-03-24 Revised:2013-09-04 Online:2014-03-10 Published:2014-03-10

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摘要： 为分析中国区际间虚拟水流动格局的稳定性及为将来研究虚拟水流动格局维持机制提供理论依据，通过构建1999-2010年中国区际间主要农产品虚拟水流量关系矩阵，引入生态网络安全系统相关概念，构建虚拟水流动格局网络稳定性模型，结果表明：东北、黄淮海和长江中下游地区是中国虚拟水的主要调出区；其他区域是调入区；虚拟水流动格局网络系统的信道数目减少，信道容量逐年降低；系统聚合度和系统冗余度亦呈波动降低趋势；系统网络使用率呈现降低趋势；系统网络空闲率呈增加趋势；网络系统指标表明中国区际间主要农产品虚拟水流动形成的网络系统稳定性逐年降低。最后，提出建立粮食安全预警系统等5方面应对措施。

关键词: 虚拟水, 生态网络安全, 虚拟水流动格局网络系统, 中国

Abstract: Virtual water strategy has become a research focus of modern water science. According to traditional virtual water theories, virtual water should flow from regions rich in water to those poor in it. However the flowing direction of virtual water in China is from the north to the south, This paper constructs the virtual water flowing matrixes embedded in the major crops between 1990-2010 among eight regions of China, and builds the model for assessing the network system stability based on the related concept and method of the ecological network security system. This paper reaches such conclusions that: (1) the three regions of Northeast China, Huang-Huai-Hai plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the main net virtual water export area, while the other five regions are the net import area in China, and the virtual water flowing quantity tends to increase; (2) the channel number of network system of virtual water flowing pattern decreased from 26 in 1999 to 24 in 2010, and the channel capacity was reduced from 2.3676 in 1999 to 2.0171 in 2010, which shows that the network system environment was degraded; (3) the polymerization degree of network system decreased from 1.0456 in 1999 to 0.7614 in 2010, which reflects the fact that the interdependency degree among eight regions was weakening; (4) the redundancy of network system decreased from 1.3221 in 1999 to 1.2557 in 2010, and the usage rate was decreased from 0.4416 in 1999 to 0.3775 in 2010, while the idleness rate was increased from 0.5584 in 1999 to 0.6225 in 2010, which reflects the fact that the optional paths of network system were decreased and the anti-interference capacity of network system was weakening. The network system indexes mentioned above show that the stability of the system is abating year by year. Finally, five measures are suggested to be taken: (1) set up the early warning system of food security; (2) strengthen the ability of food product, circulation and conservation; (3) promote the international strategy of food security; (4) constitute practical virtual water strategy; (5) establish the agricultural ecology compensation mechanism.

Key words: virtual water, ecological network security, network system of virtual water flow pattern