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地理研究  2014, Vol. 33 Issue (5): 988-1000    DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201405016
  论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势
何蕾1,2, 李国胜1, 李阔3, 崔林林1,2, 任惠茹1,2
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049;
3. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京100081
Changes and trends of sea level in the Pearl River Delta in the last 50 years
HE Lei1,2, LI Guosheng1, LI Kuo3, CUI Linlin1,2, REN Huiru1,2
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China
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摘要 验潮站资料的低空间分辨率与卫星数据的短时序是区域海平面变化研究存在的关键难题。本文结合卫星高度计海平面高度距平资料及验潮站数据,基于EOF和最小二乘法重建过去53 年(1959-2011 年)珠江三角洲海平面变化时空序列,并利用主成分分析方法建立区域统一海平面变化时间序列。结果显示,基于EOF和最小二乘法的海平面高度场重建方法能很好地解决卫星高度计资料时间序列不长和验潮站分布稀缺时间不连续等问题,对于海平面变化研究,尤其是关于过去长期的变化过程及特征研究适用性良好。对统一海平面变化时间序列线性拟合显示,近53 年珠江三角洲区域海平面平均变化速率为4.08 mm/yr,且存在近期加速上升趋势。与单站研究相比,该方法较好地表达了区域海平面主要变化特征并剔除可能存在的噪音。径流及厄尔尼诺现象也对珠江三角洲海平面空间变化产生影响。
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何蕾
李国胜
李阔
崔林林
任惠茹
关键词 海平面变化珠江三角洲趋势    
Abstract:Low spatial resolution of tide gauge records and shortness of satellite altimetry data are the main obstacles in studying regional long sea level change. The present study proposes a reconstruction of consistent regional sea level anomalies (CRSLA) in the Pearl River Delta over the period 1959-2011 by combining satellite altimetry dataset with tide gauge records using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and principle components analysis method. The results indicate that the reconstruction method addresses issues such as the relative shortage of satellite altimetry data and the sparse and discontinuous nature of tide gauge records, demonstrating the applicability of this technique in investigation of long-term sea level change. Moreover, the rate of regional sea level rise obtained based on CRSLA (4.08 mm/yr) indicates acceleration over recent decades. Compared with the estimation from single tide gauge, the reconstruction explains the leading characteristics of regional sea level change with a low noise level. Both river flow and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have considerable impacts on sea level variability in the Pearl River Delta.
Key wordssea level changes    the Pearl River Delta    trends
收稿日期: 2013-07-23     
基金资助:国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”项目(2012CB95570002)
通讯作者: 李国胜(1963- ),男,江苏常州人,研究员,博士生导师。主要研究方向为海岸带及海岸海洋环境遥感、海岸带全球变化影响、海岸海洋数值模式等。E-mail:ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn     E-mail: ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介: 何蕾(1986- ),女,江西南昌人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为海岸带变化。E-mail:hlei1986@163.com
引用本文:   
何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 崔林林, 任惠茹. 1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.
HE Lei, LI Guosheng, LI Kuo, CUI Linlin, REN Huiru. Changes and trends of sea level in the Pearl River Delta in the last 50 years. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.
链接本文:  
http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/10.11821/dlyj201405016      或      http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/Y2014/V33/I5/988
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