1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势

doi:10.11821/dlyj201405016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 验潮站资料的低空间分辨率与卫星数据的短时序是区域海平面变化研究存在的关键难题。本文结合卫星高度计海平面高度距平资料及验潮站数据，基于EOF和最小二乘法重建过去53 年（1959-2011 年）珠江三角洲海平面变化时空序列，并利用主成分分析方法建立区域统一海平面变化时间序列。结果显示，基于EOF和最小二乘法的海平面高度场重建方法能很好地解决卫星高度计资料时间序列不长和验潮站分布稀缺时间不连续等问题，对于海平面变化研究，尤其是关于过去长期的变化过程及特征研究适用性良好。对统一海平面变化时间序列线性拟合显示，近53 年珠江三角洲区域海平面平均变化速率为4.08 mm/yr，且存在近期加速上升趋势。与单站研究相比，该方法较好地表达了区域海平面主要变化特征并剔除可能存在的噪音。径流及厄尔尼诺现象也对珠江三角洲海平面空间变化产生影响。

关键词: 海平面变化, 珠江三角洲, 趋势

Abstract: Low spatial resolution of tide gauge records and shortness of satellite altimetry data are the main obstacles in studying regional long sea level change. The present study proposes a reconstruction of consistent regional sea level anomalies (CRSLA) in the Pearl River Delta over the period 1959-2011 by combining satellite altimetry dataset with tide gauge records using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and principle components analysis method. The results indicate that the reconstruction method addresses issues such as the relative shortage of satellite altimetry data and the sparse and discontinuous nature of tide gauge records, demonstrating the applicability of this technique in investigation of long-term sea level change. Moreover, the rate of regional sea level rise obtained based on CRSLA (4.08 mm/yr) indicates acceleration over recent decades. Compared with the estimation from single tide gauge, the reconstruction explains the leading characteristics of regional sea level change with a low noise level. Both river flow and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have considerable impacts on sea level variability in the Pearl River Delta.

Key words: sea level changes, the Pearl River Delta, trends

何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 崔林林, 任惠茹. 1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.

HE Lei, LI Guosheng, LI Kuo, CUI Linlin, REN Huiru. Changes and trends of sea level in the Pearl River Delta in the last 50 years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.

参考文献

[1] Nerem R S, Leuliette, Cazenave A. Present-day sea-level change: A review. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2006, 338: 1077-1083.
[2] 俞肇元, 袁林旺, 闾国年, 等. 西北太平洋边缘海区海面变化多尺度解析及空间分异. 地理研究, 2009, 28(6): 1644-1655.[Yu Zhaoyuan, Yuan Linwang, Lv Guonian, et al. Multiscale analysis of sea level change and its spatial characteristics in northwest Pacific Ocean marginal seas. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(6): 1644-1655.]
[3] Woodworth P L, Player R. The permanent service for mean sea level: An update to the 21st century. Journal of Coastal Research, 2003, 19(2): 287-295.
[4] 黄镇国, 张伟强. 南海现代海平面变化研究的进展. 台湾海峡, 2004, 23(4): 530-535.[Huang Zhenguo, Zhang Weiqiang. Advance of research on recent sea level changes in South China Sea. Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait. 2004, 23(4): 530-535.]
[5] Parker A. Sea level trends at locations of the United States with more than 100 years of recording. Natural Hazards, 2013, 65(1): 1011-1021.
[6] Becker M, Meyssignac B, Letetrel C, et al. Sea level variations at tropical Pacific islands since 1950. Global and Planetary Change, 2012, 80-81: 85-98.
[7] Stanev E V, Peneva E L. Regional sea level response to global climatic change: Black Sea examples. Global and Planetary Change, 2001, 32(1): 33-47.
[8] 李立, 许金电, 蔡榕硕. 20 世纪90 年代南海海平面的上升趋势: 卫星高度计观测结果. 科学通报, 2002, 47(1): 59-62.[Li Li, Xu Jindian, Cai Rongshuo. Upward trend of sea leve in South China Sea in 1990s: Resluts from satellite altimeter. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2002, 47(1): 59-62.]
[9] 李建成, 金涛勇. 卫星测高技术及应用若干进展. 测绘地理信息, 2013, 38(4): 1-8.[Li Jiancheng, Jin Taoyong. On the main progress of satellite altimetry and its applications. Journal of Geomatics, 2013, 38(4): 1-8.]
[10] 李大炜, 李建成, 金涛勇, 等. 利用多代卫星测高资料监测1993-2011 年全球海平面变化. 武汉大学学报(信息科学版), 2012, 37(12): 1421-1424.[Li Dawei, Li Jiancheng, Jin Taoyong, et al. Monitoring global sea level change from 1993 to 2011 using TOPEX and Jason Altimeter missions. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2012, 37 (12): 1421-1424.]
[11] Acuna G, Bosch W. Absolute comparison of satellite altimetry and tide gauge registrations in Venezuela. Satellite Altimetry for Geodesy, Geophysics and Oceanography, Proceedings, 2004, 126: 261-269.
[12] Church J A, White N J, Hunter J R. Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands. Global and Planetary Change, 2006, 53(3): 155-168.
[13] Calafat F M, Gomis D, Marcos M. Comparison of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1961-2000 as given by a data reconstruction and a 3D model. Global and Planetary Change, 2009, 68(3): 175-184.
[14] Church J A, White N J, Coleman R, et al. Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17(13): 2609-2625.
[15] Calafat F M, Jorda G. A Mediterranean sea level reconstruction (1950-2008) with error budget estimates. Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 79(1-2): 118-133.
[16] Meyssignac B, Calafat F M, Somot S, et al. Two-dimensional reconstruction of the Mediterranean sea level over 1970-2006 from tide gage data and regional ocean circulation model outputs. Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 77(1-2): 49-61.
[17] Hamlington B D, Leben R R, Wright L A, et al. Regional sea level reconstruction in the Pacific Ocean. Marine Geodesy, 2012, 35: 98-117.
[18] Cheng Y C, Andersen O B, Knudsen P. Integrating non-tidal sea level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction. Advances in Space Research, 2012, 50(8): 1099-1106.
[19] 陈晓宏, 陈永勤. 珠江三角洲网河区水文与地貌特征变异及其成因. 地理学报, 2002, 57(4): 429-436.[Chen Xiaohong, Chen Yongqin. Hydrological change and its causes in the river network of the Pearl River Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(4): 429-436.]
[20] 时翠, 陈晓宏, 张强. 近几十年来珠江三角洲1 月和7 月水位变异分析. 热带地理, 2012, 32(3): 233-240.[Shi Cui, Chen Xiaohong, Zhang Qiang. Change-points of water levels in the Pearl River Delta in January and July for the last decades. Tropical Geography, 2012, 32(3): 233-240.]
[21] 孔兰, 陈晓宏, 张强, 等. 海平面上升对珠江口水位影响的分析. 生态环境学报, 2010, 19(2): 390-393.[Kong Lan, Chen Xiaohong, Zhangqiang et al. Impacts of rising sea level on water level changes along the Pearl River Estuary, China. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2010, 19(2): 390-393]
[22] 杨清书, 陈特固, 廖芸栋. 近几十年来韩江三角洲水位变化趋势研究. 海洋通报, 1997, 16(1): 10-14.[Yang Qingshu, Chen Tegu, Liao Yundong. The research on the tendecy of sea level change of Hanjiang Delta in the last decades. Marine Science Bulletin, 1997, 16(1): 10-14.]
[23] 杨清书. 珠江三角洲的水位变化趋势及其本征模型. 海洋科学, 1998, (1): 47-51.[Yang Qingshu. The EOF model of water level variability of the Pearl River Delta. Marine Science, 1998, (1): 47-51.]
[24] 张蕾, 陈晓宏. 珠江三角洲网河区水位空间插值的kriging 方法. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 43(5): 112-114.[Zhang Lei, Chen Xiaohong. Spatial interpolation of water level with Kriging approach in river net of the Pearl River Delta. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2004, 43(5): 112-114.]
[25] 时小军, 陈特固, 余克服. 近40 年来珠江口的海平面变化. 海洋地质与第四纪地质, 2008, 28(1): 127-134.[Shi Xiaojun, Chen Tegu, Yu Kefu. Sea level changes in Zhujiang estuary over last 40 years. Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2008, 28(1): 127-134.]
[26] 沈东芳, 陈特固, 吴晓星, 等. IPCC-AR4 以来华南沿海海平面变化研究若干进展. 热带地理, 2012, 32(3): 223-227+ 251.[Shen Dongfang, Chen Tegu, Wu Xiaoxing et al. Progress in the research of sea-level changes along the coast of south China since IPCC-AR4. Tropical Geography, 2012, 32(3): 223-227+251.]
[27] 黄镇国, 张伟强, 陈特固. 香港/澳门近72 年海平面变化曲线. 地理科学, 1999, 19(3): 91-94.[Huang Zhenguo, Zhang Weiqiang, Chen Tegu. Sea level change curve in recent 72 years in Hong Kong and Macau. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1999, 19(3): 91-94.]
[28] 蒋陈娟, 杨清书, 戴志军, 等. 近几十年来珠江三角洲网河水位时空变化及原因初探. 海洋学报(中文版), 2012, 34 (1): 46-56.[Jiang Chenjuan, Yang Qingshu, Dai Zhijun et al. Spatial and temporal characteristics of water level change and its causes in the Zhujiang Delta in recent decades. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2012, 34(1): 46-56.]
[29] 沈东芳, 龚政, 程泽梅, 等. 1970-2009 年粤东(汕尾)沿海海平面变化研究. 热带地理, 2010, 30(5): 461-465.[Shen Dongfang, Gong Zheng, Cheng Zemei, et al. Sea level change in coastal eastern Guangdong (Shanwei) in 1970-2009. Tropical Geography. 2010, 30(5): 461-465.]
[30] He L, Li G, Li K, et al. Estimation of regional sea level change in the Pearl River Delta from tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2014, 141: 69-77.
[31] 栾维新, 崔红艳. 基于GIS 的辽河三角洲潜在海平面上升淹没损失评估. 地理研究, 2004, 23(6): 805-814, 880.[Luan Weixin, Cui Hongyan. Submerged loss assessment of potential sea level rise of Liao River Delta Region based on GIS. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(06): 805-814, 880.]
[32] 陈特固. 近数十年珠江口海平面变化的地区差异. 南海研究与开发, 1994, (3): 7-12.[Chen Tegu. Regional difference of sea level change in the the Pearl River Estuary in the last decades. Research & Development of South China Sea, 1994, (3): 7-12.]
[33] Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Livezey R E, et al. Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures using empirical orthogonal functions. Journal of Climate, 1996, 9(6): 1403-1420.
[34] 谢志仁, 袁林旺, 闾国年, 等. 海面-地面系统变化：重建·监测·预估. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012: 314.[Xie Zhiren, Yuan Linwang, Lv Guonian et al. Sea-land System Change: Reconstruction, Monitoring and Prediction. Beijing: Science Press, 2012: 314.]
[35] 陈晓宏, 张蕾, 时钟. 珠江三角洲河网区水位特征空间变异性研究. 水利学报, 2004, (10): 36-42.[Chen Xiaohong, Zhang Lei, Shi Zhong. Study on spatial variability of water levles in river net of Pearl River Delta. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2004, (10): 36-42.]
[36] 荣增瑞, 刘玉光, 陈满春, 等. 全球和南海海平面变化及其与厄尔尼诺的关系. 海洋通报, 2008, 27(1): 1-8.[Rong Zengrui, Liu Yuguang, Chen Manchun et al. Mean sea level change in the global ocean and the South China Sea and its response to ENSO. Marine Science Bulletin, 2008, 27(1): 1-8.]
[37] Ho C R, Kuo N J, Zheng Q N, et al. Dynamically active areas in the South China Sea detected from TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2000, 71(3): 320-328.
[38] 杨清书, 罗章仁, 张修杰. 珠江三角洲近几十年水位变化趋势研究. 热带海洋, 1998, 17(2): 9-14.[Yang Qingshu, Luo Zhangren, Zhang Xiujie. Secular trend of water level change in Zhujiang River Delta in recent decades. Tropic Oceanology, 1998, 17(2): 9-14.]
[39] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[40] 《第二次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第二次气候变化国家评估报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011: 113-114.[Editorial Committee of National Assessment Report of Climate Change. Second National Assessment Report of Climate Change. Beijing: Science Press, 2011: 113-114.]
[41] 国家海洋局. 2010 年中国海平面公报.[2011-0402]. http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghpmgb/2010nzghpmgb/ 201212/t20121217_22808.html[State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic Of China. 2010 report on china’s sea level.[2011-0402]. http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghpmgb/2010nzghpmgb/201212/t20121217_22808.html]
[42] Peltier W R. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: The ice-5G (VM2) 552 model and grace. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2004, 32: 111-149.
[43] Ding X, Zheng D, Chen Y, et al. Sea level change in Hong Kong from tide gauge measurements of 1954-1999. Journal of Geodesy, 2001, 74(10): 683-689.
[44] Zhou X Y, Zheng J H, Dong D J, et al. Sea level rise along the East Asia and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the Yangtze River Estuary. Ocean Engineering, 2013, 71: 40-50.
[45] Huang Z G, Zong Y Q, Zhang W Q. Coastal inundation due to sea level rise in the Pearl River Delta, China. Natural Hazards, 2004, 33(2): 247-264.
[46] Ren M E. Relative sea-sevel changes in China over the last 80 years. Journal of Coastal Research, 1993, 9(1): 229-241.
[47] Cheng X H, Qi Y Q. Trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea from merged altimetry data. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 57(3-4): 371-382.
[48] Feng W, Zhong M, Xu H Z. Sea level variations in the South China Sea inferred from satellite gravity, altimetry, and oceanographic data. Science China-Earth Sciences, 2012, 55(10): 1696-1701.
[49] Li L, Xu J D, Cai R S. Trends of sea level rise in the South China Sea during the 1990s: An altimetry result. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2002, 47(7): 582-585.
[50] Zuo J C, Yang Y Q, Zhang J L, et al. Prediction of China's submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2013, 12(3): 327-334.
[51] Zhang X B, Church J A. Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39: L21701.
[52] Ericson J P, Vorosmarty C J, Dingman S L, et al. Effective sea-level rise and deltas: Causes of change and human dimension implications. Global and Planetary Change, 2006, 50(1-2): 63-82.
[53] 汤超莲, 游大伟, 陈特固, 等. 1986-2008 年广东沿海海平面变化趋势. 热带地理, 2009, 29(5): 423-428.[Tang Chaolian, You Dawei, Chen Tegu, et al. Sea-level changes along the coast of Guangdong province during 1986-2008. Tropical Geography, 2009, 29(5): 423-428.]
[54] 游大伟, 汤超莲, 陈特固, 等. 近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势. 热带地理, 2012, 32(1): 1-5.[You Dawei, Tang Chaolian, Chen Tegu et al. Sea level changes along Guangdong coast over the Last Century. Tropical Geography, 2012, 32(1): 1-5.]
[55] 赵春明, 刘雅鸣, 张金良, 等. 20 世纪中国水旱灾害警示录. 郑州: 黄河水利出版社, 2002.[Zhao Chunming, Liu Yaming, Zhang Jinliang, et al. Lessons from Chinese Flood and Drought during the 20th Century. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Conservancy Commission Press, 2002.]