地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 1049-1058.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201406006

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

东江流域近50年径流系数时空变化特征

何艳虎1,2, 陈晓宏1,2, 林凯荣1,2, 吴孝情1,2, 李艳3   

  1. 1. 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心, 广州 510275;
    2. 华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275;
    3. 广东财经大学公共管理学院, 广州 510320
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-10 修回日期:2014-03-25 出版日期:2014-06-10 发布日期:2014-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 陈晓宏（1963-），男，教授，博士生导师。E-mail：eescxh@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:何艳虎（1986-），男，河南息县人，博士研究生，主要从事水文与水资源研究。E-mail：heyanhu456@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际合作项目（51210013， 50839005）；国家自然科学基金项目（51379223，41301627）；国家科技支撑计划（2012BAC21B0103）；水利部公益项目（201201094，201301002-02）；广东省科技厅项目（2010B050300010）；广东省水利科技创新项目（2011-11，2009-39）；中英瑞气候变化适应项目（ACCC/20100705-1）；广州市珠江科技新星专项（2011J2200051）

Temporal and spatial characteristics of runoff coefficient variations in the Dongjiang Basin during 1964-2012

HE Yanhu1,2, CHEN Xiaohong1,2, LIN Kairong1,2, WU Xiaoqing1,2, LI Yan3   

  1. 1. Center for water resources and environment, SunYat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory ofWater cycle andWater Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, SunYat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. Faculty of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Business, Guangzhou 510320, China
  • Received:2013-10-10 Revised:2014-03-25 Online:2014-06-10 Published:2014-06-10

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12 | 7

摘要： 基于东江流域1964-2012 年降雨、蒸发和径流等气象水文资料，采用线性倾向估计、M-K趋势检验及变化幅度和变化弹性等多种方法，结合ArcGIS自相关等空间统计分析技术，分析了东江流域径流系数的时空变化特征及其对降雨、蒸发和地表植被等影响因素的空间对应关系。结果表明：近50 年来，东江流域年径流系数均呈上升趋势，且随着流域空间尺度的增大而增加，总体形成“南北低、中间高”的空间分布格局；径流系数变化幅度及变化弹性在20 世纪90年代之后显著增加。径流系数变化幅度热度指数高值区大致位于东源及其以北地区。相较于蒸发和地表植被覆盖，流域降雨变化趋势与径流系数及其变动幅度热度指数的空间分布格局具有较好的一致性。本文可为识别变化环境下流域来水过程变异提供科学参考依据。

关键词: 东江流域, 径流系数, 变化幅度热度值, 空间对应

Abstract: Based on meteorological and hydrological data such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff in the Dongjiang river basin from 1964 to 2012, using various methods including linear trend estimation, M-K trend test, amplitude of variation and elastic change and combining ArcGIS spatial statistical analysis technology such as autocorrelation, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal variations of the runoff coefficient for this region and the space corresponding relation between the influencing factors such as rainfall, evaporation and vegetation and the runoff coefficient. The results show that all the annual runoff coefficients are on the rise on the Dongjiang river basin in recent 50 years. Annual average runoff coefficient increases with the increase of watershed spatial scale, which, on the whole, forms a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and south, and low in the middle. The amplitude of variation and elastic change of the runoff coefficient significantly increased after the 1990s. The high heat index of amplitude of variation of runoff coefficient area is found in the north of Dongyuan county. Compared with evaporation and vegetation coverage, the changing trends of rainfall and runoff coefficients as well its heat index of amplitude of variation have good consistency on the spatial distribution. The research provides a reference basis for identifying variability of water inflow of river basins under a changing environment.

Key words: Dongjiang river basin, runoff coefficient, heat index of amplitude of variation, space corresponding relation