地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 1073-1084.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201406008

• 土地利用与生态 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于邻域相关的漓江流域土地利用多情景模拟与景观格局变化

王祺, 蒙吉军, 毛熙彦   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-30 修回日期:2014-02-23 出版日期:2014-06-10 发布日期:2014-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 蒙吉军(1971-),男,博士,副教授,主要从事资源环境管理研究。E-mail:jijunm@pku.edu.cn E-mail:jijunm@pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王祺(1990-),男,硕士,主要从事资源环境管理研究。E-mail:wangqi901025@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑课题(2012BAC16B04);国家自然科学基金项目(41371097)

Scenario simulation and landscape pattern assessment of land use change based on neighborhood analysis and auto-logistic model:A case study of Lijiang River Basin

WANG Qi, MENG Jijun, MAO Xiyan   

  1. Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2013-10-30 Revised:2014-02-23 Online:2014-06-10 Published:2014-06-10

摘要: 建模和情景分析是土地利用变化研究的核心内容。选择旅游业高速发展的漓江流域为研究区,利用基于邻域相关构建空间权重的Auto-logistic 模型代替传统的Logistic 回归,构建CLUE-S 模型,对研究区2020 年土地利用格局进行多情景模拟,并通过景观格局指数对比分析不同发展情景下的景观格局特征。结果表明:① 利用邻域相关构建空间权重的Auto-logistic模型在预测土地空间分布概率方面较传统的Logistic 模型具有更好的预测能力;② 建设用地和草地高度破碎化、水域面积不稳定是漓江流域景观脆弱性的主要来源;③ 旅游地发展需要稳定、多样的景观格局。一方面要合理控制人为活动主导的用地类型对景观格局的冲击,另一方面应兼顾景观多样性,实现用地在社会经济和生态环境之间的协调。

关键词: 土地利用变化, Auto-logistic回归, CLUE-S模型, 邻域分析, 情景模拟, 漓江流域

Abstract: Tourism is identified to be capable of stimulating economic development in certain regions. However, tourist regions are experiencing a series of adverse effects with regard to local ecosystem associated with boosts in tourism. That is, the development of tourist region is able to manage a series of trade-offs between societal, economic and environmental goals. Given its integrated and dynamic land use form, tourist regions offer great samples to link physical and human systems and understand the anthropogenic effects and implications of land changes. Building on this premise, this paper seeks to model the physical-and human-induced landscape change by using Lijiang River Basin as a case. We employed a hybrid model of neighborhood analysis and Auto-logistic regression to project the likelihood map of land use distribution. Then, CLUE-S model is used to simulate future land use pattern under four policy-based scenarios: natural growth scenario, land planning scenario, resource conservation scenario and tourism development scenario. Several landscape indices are introduced to reveal the features of each pattern and to compare advantages of each scenario, which can provide scientific basis for future policy-making. Key results emerged: (1) Hybrid model of neighborhood analysis and auto-logistic regression is a more active and effective way, than the traditional logistic regression model is, to project the likelihood map of land use distribution. It helps to deal with the weakness of CLUE-s model on representing self-organizing character of land use change; (2) The Lijiang River Basin is a landscape dominated by the woodland and cultivated land. Vulnerability of landscape in the basin is primarily ascribable to the fragmentation of grassland and construction land and the fluctuated amount of water. To achieve an efficient land use in tourist region, a reasonable spatial regulation is more important than quantitative limits; (3) Tourism development requires a stable and diverse landscape. It indicates a necessity of controlling the interference of anthropogenic driven land use change on landscapes and managing the trade-off between socio-economic and eco-environmental land demand simultaneously. Result of this study may inform regional ecosystem management of ways to adapt sustainably to future change.

Key words: land use change, Auto-logistic regression, CLUE-S model, neighborhood analysis, scenario simulation, Lijiang river basin