气候变化下的祁连山地区近40 年多年冻土分布变化模拟

doi:10.11821/dlyj201407008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 冻土是一种对气候变化极为敏感的土体介质，故气候的变化过程能反映和模拟冻土的分布及变化趋势。基于高程—响应模型，运用高分辨率的高程数据（DEM）、经度数据（Longitude）、纬度数据（Latitude）、年平均气温数据（MAAT）和气温垂直递减率数据（VLRT）对祁连山地区近40 年的多年冻土分布状况进行了数值模拟。分析表明：① 该高程—响应模型模拟的冻土范围和变化趋势与相关研究所引入逻辑回归模型的模拟结果基本一致。② 该模型模拟的1970s、1980s、1990s，2000s 的祁连山地区冻土分布面积分别为9.75×10⁴ km²、9.35×10⁴ km²、8.85×10⁴ km²、7.66×10⁴ km²。在这40 年中，冻土的分布范围呈现出明显减少的趋势。③ 从1970s 到1980s、1980s 到1990s、1990s 到2000s 三个时间段内，冻土分布范围的退缩速率分别为4.1%、5.3%、13.4%，其呈现逐渐增速的趋势，1990s 到2000s 出现了跳跃式增长。本研究可为分析长时间序列祁连山地区的多年冻土变化提供科学参考依据。

关键词: 多年冻土, 动态变化, 高程&mdash, 响应模型, 数值模拟, 祁连山

Abstract: Permafrost is a soil medium which is extremely sensitive to climate change, so climate change has an important impact on permafrost. In this study, based on altitude-response model, the elevation data (DEM), longitude data, latitude data, mean annual air temperature data (MAAT) and the vertical lapse rate of air temperature (VLRT) are used to derive permafrost distribution in each decade on the Qilian Mountains over the past 40 years. For accuracy of simulation result, all these data except VLRT were transferred into a raster format and stored by WGS-1984 geographic projection and the same spatial resolution (0.001°, about 100 m). VLRT data can be obtained mainly based on the results of previous studies, which shows that the temperature decreased 5.5° by an increase of each 1000 m in elevation in the Qilian Mountains. Through analyzing, MAAT has a close relationship with altitude, longitude and latitude respectively. As for the MAAT data, linear multiple regression analysis between MAAT, DEM, latitude and longitude data was carried out for each decade. The simulation results are compared based on the Map of Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground in China, the interpretation results including 93 key permafrost point landforms can be used to test the accuracy of the simulation results, which were mainly based on field survey data, remote sensing image and DEM data for manual compilation of the Geomorphologic Atlas of People's Republic of China (1:1,000,000). The overall simulation results have a high accuracy, which can reach more than 80%. Using the altitude-response model, the areas of simulated permafrost distribution on the Qilian Mountains in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, are 9.75×10⁴ km², 9.35×10⁴ km², 8.85×10⁴ km², 7.66×10⁴ km², respectively. The permafrost distribution area shows a decreasing trend over the past 40 years. Through the further analysis of the simulation results, from the 1970s to the 1980s, 1980s to 1990s, 1990s to 2000s, the rate of the permafrost loss was 4.1%, 5.3% and 13.4%, respectively, which shows an increasing trend and there exists a leap growth from the 1990s to 2000s. This research can provide an effective method for a better understanding of the dynamic changes of alpine permafrost distribution on the Qilian Mountains for a long series period.

Key words: alpine permafrost distribution, dynamic changes, altitude-response model, simulation, Qilian Mountains

张文杰, 程维明, 李宝林, 仝迟鸣, 赵敏, 王楠. 气候变化下的祁连山地区近40 年多年冻土分布变化模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(7): 1275-1284.

ZHANG Wenjie, CHENG Weiming, LI Baolin, TONG Chiming, ZHAO Min, WANG Nan. Simulation of the permafrost distribution on Qilian Mountains over past 40 years under the influence of climate change[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(7): 1275-1284.

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