地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 1361-1372.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407015

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价

张正涛1, 高超1,2, 刘青1, 翟建青3, 王艳君4, 苏布达3, 田红5   

  1. 1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 芜湖 241000;
    2. 安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心, 芜湖 241000;
    3. 中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
    4. 南京信息工程大学, 南京 210044;
    5. 安徽省气候中心, 合肥 230061
  • 收稿日期:2013-11-12 修回日期:2014-05-02 出版日期:2014-07-10 发布日期:2014-07-10
  • 通讯作者: 高超（1978-），男，安徽全椒人，博士，副教授，主要从事流域气候变化和水文响应研究。E-mail：gaoqinchao1@163.com
  • 作者简介:张正涛（1990-），男，山东省济南人，硕士，主要从事环境灾害、气候变化与水文水资源方面研究。E-mail：zhangzheng_tao@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）（2012CB955903）；国家自然科学基金项目（41101035）；教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金（20113424120002，20123424110001）；淮河流域气象开放研究基金（HRM201303）

Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River basin

ZHANG Zhengtao1, GAO Chao1,2, LIU Qing1, ZHAI Jianqing3, WANG Yanjun4, SU Buda3, TIAN Hong5   

  1. 1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China;
    2. Climate Change andWater Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China;
    3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    5. Anhui Provincial Climate center, Hefei 230061, China
  • Received:2013-11-12 Revised:2014-05-02 Online:2014-07-10 Published:2014-07-10

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摘要： 为探讨不同重现期情景下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化，利用不同类型共20 种分布函数拟合得到最大日降水量结果，并将其作为致灾因子，结合其他11 种指标，定量化评价淮河流域不同重现期暴雨洪涝灾害风险。研究发现：① 淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害高风险区为流域中上游干流蓄洪区及周边地势低洼地，流域中部、西南部以及东部部分地区为中高风险区，低风险区分布于流域北部与中南部。② 随重现期增加（10a 一遇至1000a 一遇），最大日降水量空间分布变化为流域东部整体危险性逐渐减弱，西南部高值区域增幅较大；而最终淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划变化则表现为中高风险区保持相对稳定；高风险区与低风险区逐渐缩小，占流域总面积分别由8.3%、42.4%减小至3.2%与30.8%，风险高值保持稳定但区域集中程度越来越明显；中风险区则由28.3%增加至40.9%；整体呈现“流域东部大灾减少、小灾不断，西部高值区遇水成灾，北部中南部相对安全”的空间分布变化格局。

关键词: 重现期, 暴雨洪涝灾害, 风险评价, 分布函数, 淮河流域

Abstract: A new method is used to study the risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return period in the Huaihe River Basin. The method is to make the maximum amount of daily precipitation (PMP), which is regarded as one of the major hazard factors, combined with other 11 kinds of second indexes to carry on the risk assessment. PMP is obtained by using different types of distribution functions fitting annual maximum sequence. The investigations show that the high-risk areas of flood disaster of the Huaihe River Basin are located in Mengwa detention area, Funan County, Anhui Province and the lowlands around it, the moderate-highrisk areas are in the central and southwestern parts of the basin and parts of the eastern basin. The southern-central and northern parts of the basin are low-risk areas. With the return period from 10 a to 1000 a, discrete spatial distributions of PMP in the southwestern basin are greatly increasing. In the eastern basin, the risk is gradually weakened. Moreover, the spatial distribution of flood disaster risk in the Huaihe River Basin shows that the moderate-high-risk areas remain stable. The high-risk and low-risk areas decrease gradually and the ratio of the total area decreases from 8.3% and 42.4% to 3.2% and 30.8%, respectively. The values of high-risk areas keeps invariant but regional concentration has become more obvious. For moderate-risk areas, the ratio increases from 28.3% to 40.9%. Overall, the changes of spatial distribution patterns present that major disasters have reduced but small disasters occurred frequently in the eastern basin. The high-risk areas of the western basin are vulnerable to flood, while the northern and central-southern parts of the basin are relatively safe.

Key words: return period, rainstorm and flood disaster, risk assessment, distribution function, Huaihe River Basin