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### 排放强度目标下中国最优研发及经济增长路径

1. 1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100190
2. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200062
• 收稿日期:2013-09-05 修回日期:2014-03-15 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-10
• 作者简介:

作者简介:朱永彬(1983- ),男,河北固安人,助理研究员,研究方向为气候经济学、政策模拟与计算管理科学。E-mail:zhuyongbin@casipm.ac.cn

• 基金资助:
国家重点基础研究计划(973)项目(2012CB955800);国家自然科学基金项目(41201594);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA05150500)

### Optimal R&D investment path for China to fulfill its emission intensity target and the corresponding economic growth path

Yongbin ZHU1(), Zheng WANG1,2()

1. 1. Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
2. East China Normal University, Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, Shanghai 200062, China
• Received:2013-09-05 Revised:2014-03-15 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-10

Abstract:

This paper selected the R&D investment as primary abatement instrument, and constructed an optimal economic growth model with the constraint of carbon intensity reduction target. The mechanism behind the carbon intensity reduction here is that R&D activity will increase the knowledge stock and further improve the efficiency of energy use. Besides, the efficiency gap with developed countries will enhance the improvement rate through spillover effect. Given the linear relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP, the improvement of energy efficiency means the decrease of energy intensity, which can easily conduct its relationship with carbon intensity. Furthermore, based on this model, it studied the optimal R&D investment and balanced economic growth path that satisfies both targets of social welfare maximization and carbon intensity reduction proposed by China in 2009, which is to reduce the carbon intensity in 2020 by 40%-45% compared with 2005. The simulation results indicated that the social welfare can benefit from increasing the consumption-output ratio from the 2007 level -49% to the optimal level -55%, and decelerating the R&D investment enlargement. However, in order to achieve the abatement target of 40% carbon intensity reduction it is required to raise the R&D intensity of GDP to 2.85% rapidly after 2014 and keep it at 3% thereafter. Perceivably, the optimal choice for the social planner is to postpone the start point to take concrete measures to reduce the carbon intensity before it is too late. Accordingly, the economic growth will attenuate due to the energy input decline and the resource invested on R&D, the balanced economic growth rate would drop sharply after 2014 with the annual average growth rate of 6% and 9.4% respectively in the optimal and baseline scenarios, whilst the path of carbon intensity indicates it would decline smoothly before 2013, and then after 2014 it would drop significantly but with the decline rate gradually slowing down, which is in accordance with the path of R&D intensity. Meanwhile, due to the combined effects of carbon intensity and economic growth trajectories, the energy consumption and carbon emission would keep increasing by and large, with a temporary decrease after an unobvious peak showing up in 2014. By the end of 2020, the energy and carbon emissions will reach 4176 Mtoe and 3478 MtC under the baseline scenario.