经济体制转轨下的无锡市城乡地域结构演变响应

doi:10.11821/dlyj201408009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城乡地域结构与经济体制响应关系研究,是从体制变革出发剖析中国城乡地域空间演变规律的重要视角。对比1978-2010年长三角地区无锡市城乡地域结构演变和中国经济体制转轨进程,发现二者变化阶段具有一致性,城—郊—乡地域结构向城乡一体化地域结构演变,响应计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨。通过选取经济体制核心要素(固定资产投资所有制结构)为体制变量、地域结构要素(城乡地域范围)为空间变量,建立基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的脉冲响应函数(IRF),刻画城乡地域空间对体制变量的响应状态,并利用方差分解函数(VD)进一步分析体制变量对城乡地域结构演变的贡献率。结果表明: ① 城乡地域结构中,城乡过渡地域对体制变量的响应强度最高;② 城乡地域各个空间对私有经济投资变化均表现出响应强度相对较大、持续时间长的特征,城市建成区扩展对国有经济投资变化响应迅速,并呈负响应关系,而乡村建设用地增加主要响应集体经济投资变化;③ 在体制影响下,城市建成区和乡村自身发展状态的惯性对其演变依然长期起着重要作用,而城乡过渡地域的自身发展状态惯性在经济体制转轨影响下很快失去主导作用。

关键词: 城乡地域结构, 经济体制转轨, 响应, 无锡市

Abstract:

The research on the response relationship between urban-rural regional structure and economic system is one of the most important aspects to reveal the evolutionary process of China’s urban-rural regional space from the perspective of insitituion transformation. With over 30 years of economic system transformation, the eco-society of China and its space carrier, urban-rural regional structure, have been undergoing a great change. In this paper, great conformance characteristic between urban-rural regional structure evolution and economic system transformation process could be found in Wuxi, a Yangtze River Delta area, during 1978-2010. The evolutionary process from urban-suburban-rural structure to urban-rural integration structure shows a response to the economic system transformation process from a planned economy to a socialist market economy. Through the selection of core economic system variables and regional structure variables, ownership structure of fixed asset investment and urban-rural space range are proved suitable for representing economic institutional and spatial structure respectively. And then, an Impulse Response Function (IRF) in Vector Auto-Regression(VAR) is constructed to reveal the response relationship from urban-rural regional structure to economic system variables. Variance Decomposition(VD) is also adopted to further analyze the contribution rate of economic system variables to urban-rural regional structure evolution. Experiment results show that the urban-rural transition area appears as the most dynamic area responding to the economic system variables in the urban-rural regional structure. Moreover, the response relationship between each part of the urban-rural regional structure and the privately-owned economy investment is characterized by high intension reponse which sustained for a long time. While the expansion of urban built-up area presents a rapid and negative response to state-owned economy investment, and the increase of rural construction land mainly responses to collectively-owned economy investment. Finally, with the influence of institution, the initial development status of urban built-up area and rural area still dominate their evolution tendency for a long time, while the evolution tendency of urban-rural transition area could be changed quickly due to the economic system transformation.

Key words: urban-rural regional structure, transformation of economic system, response, Wuxi

周蕾, 杨山, 臧磊. 经济体制转轨下的无锡市城乡地域结构演变响应[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(8): 1489-1502.

Lei ZHOU, Shan YANG, Lei ZANG. A response study on the evolution of urban-rural regional structure under the transformation of economic system in Wuxi[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(8): 1489-1502.

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时间	数据类型	分辨率	合成波段
1978/05/25	MSS	80 80	421
1984/07/17	TM	30 30	321
1992/10/27	TM	30 30	432
1995/08/28	TM	30 31	432
1998/08/11	TM	30 32	432
2001/06/20	TM	30 33	432
2005/08/17	TM	30 30	432
2008/07/05	TM	30*30	432
2010/05/24	TM	30*30	432

目标层	指标层	分指标层
城乡地域结构演变	城乡地域结构URS	城市建成区扩展面积URS₁
		郊区农业用地变化面积URS₂
		乡村建设用地增加面积URS₃
经济体制转轨	固定资产投资所有制结构IOS	国有经济固定资产投资比重IOS₁
		集体经济固定资产投资比重IOS₂
		私有经济固定资产投资比重IOS₃
		外资经济固定资产投资比重IOS₄

经济体制转轨	所有制改革	固定资产投资所有制结构	地域结构演变
1978-1984年	所有制改革起步阶段	国家集体单一投资主体	城—郊—乡地域结构
经济体制转轨启动阶段
1984-1992年
经济体制转轨探索阶段
1992-2001年	所有制改革全面开展阶段	单一投资主体向多元化投资主体转变	城乡过渡区域的郊区农业用地逐步消失
市场经济体制初期阶段	所有制改革全面开展阶段	单一投资主体向多元化投资主体转变	城乡过渡区域的郊区农业用地逐步消失
2001-2010年	所有制改革提高阶段	私有经济和外资经济成为固定资产投资主体	城乡一体化地域结构
市场经济体制完善阶段	所有制改革提高阶段	私有经济和外资经济成为固定资产投资主体	城乡一体化地域结构

变量	检验形式	ADF 检验值	各显著水平下的临界值			检验结论
变量	检验形式	ADF 检验值	1%		5%	10%
lnIOS₁	(C,T,0)	1.46	-4.27	-3.56	-3.21	不平稳
ΔlnIOS₁	(C,T,0)	-4.54	-4.28	-3.56	-3.22	平稳
lnIOS₂	(C,T,1)	-2.44	-4.28	-3.56	-3.22	不平稳
ΔlnIOS₂	(0,0,0)	-2.64	-2.64	- 1.95	-1.61	平稳
lnIOS₃	(C,T,4)	-3.56	-4.32	-3.58	-3.23	不平稳
ΔlnIOS₃	(0,0,1)	-2.04	-2.64	-1.95	-1.61	平稳
lnIOS₄	(C,T,2)	-1.62	-3.63	-2.94	-2.65	不平稳
ΔlnIOS₄	(C,0,1)	-4.02	-3.63	-2.96	-2.67	平稳
lnURS₁	(C,T,0)	-1.15	-4.27	-3.56	-3.21	不平稳
ΔlnURS₁	(C,0,0)	-5.42	-3.66	-2.96	-2.62	平稳
lnURS₂	(0,0,1)	-0.54	-2.67	-1.96	-1.61	不平稳
ΔlnURS₂	(C,T,0)	-2.78	-3.54	-2.59	-1.98	平稳
lnURS₃	(C,0,1)	-1.7	-3.66	-2.96	-2.62	不平稳
ΔlnURS₃	(C,0,0)	-3.07	-3.66	-2.96	-2.62	平稳