限制开发区域农户薪柴消费的影响因素分析——以云南省怒江州为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201409010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文以位于国家限制开发区域的云南省怒江州为例,利用654份农户调查问卷和logistic回归模型对农户薪柴消费的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,农户薪柴消费与家庭总人口、是否外出打工、所在行政村是否在自然保护区、所在行政村海拔是否大于2000米、所在行政村到县城的距离正相关,与上年现金支出、是否有现金补贴、住房条件负相关。在保持其他变量不变的前提下,所在行政村海拔大于2000米的农户使用薪柴的概率比海拔在2000米以下的农户高64.70%;在自然保护区的农户消费薪柴的概率是自然保护区外农户的3.26倍;所在行政村到最近县城的距离每增加1公里,农户使用薪柴的概率增加6.12%;对农户进行现金补贴会使薪柴消费概率下降38.39%。在此基础上,对限制开发区域的环保政策、财政政策、人口政策、产业政策、投资政策提出了有针对性的调整建议。

关键词: 农户, 薪柴消费, 影响因素, 主体功能区

Abstract:

The promotion of the development of major function oriented zones by 2020 is a major strategic plan in China and requires collaboration between the government and the public. The solicitation of public support for the development of major function oriented zones remains a great unmet need that has not been addressed by academics. This study used the Nujiang prefecture in Yunnan province as an example in performing empirical analyses of the influencing factors that affect firewood consumption based on 654 rural household questionnaires and a logistic regression model. Our results indicated positive correlations of rural household firewood consumption with household size, the existence of migrant workers in a rural household, location of an administrative village in a natural reserve, the location of an administrative village above an altitude of 2000 meters, and the distance from the administrative village to its county town. The probability of rural household firewood consumption increased by 24.20% with each additional person in a household, and the probability of firewood consumption was 67.18% greater in households with migrant workers than in those without migrant workers. The probability of rural household firewood consumption in nature reserves was 3.26-fold higher than that of rural households outside nature reserves. In addition, the probability of rural household firewood consumption was 64.70% greater in administrative villages 2000 meters above sea level than in those at altitudes less than 2000 meters. The probability of rural household firewood consumption increased by 6.12% with each increase of one kilometer in the distance between an administrative village to the nearest county town. Both of these two variables reflected the accessibility of energy sources other than firewood to rural households. Higher altitude and longer distance from the county town led to lower accessibility to alternative energy sources and an increased probability of firewood usage. Our data showed a negative correlation with cash expenses in the previous year, housing conditions, and cash subsidies. The probability of firewood consumption was reduced by 2.28% with each additional 1000 CNY in cash expenditures in the previous year, whereas the probability was reduced by 45.73% for each increase of level in the housing condition. Cash subsidies for rural households reduced the probability of firewood consumption by 38.39%. According to the quantitative research on the firewood consumption, the article discovered various factors which had positive or negative effects on Nujiang prefecture, these are useful enlightenments on Restricted Development Zones from reducing the firewood consumption, curbing the ecological damages and forest degradation caused by excessive firewood consumption. The article puts forward some practical policy recommendations from environmental protection, finance, population, investment and industrial policy, and hope to improve energy consumption structure and consuming behavior and alleviate antinomies between household energy consumption and ecological protection, and advance the strategy implementations in this region.

Key words: rural household, firewood consumption, influencing factor, major function oriented zones

孙威, 胡望舒, 闫梅, 吕晨. 限制开发区域农户薪柴消费的影响因素分析——以云南省怒江州为例[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(9): 1694-1705.

Wei SUN, Wangshu HU, Mei YAN, Chen LV. Influencing factors of firewood consumption of rural household in restricted development zones: a case study of the Nujiang Prefecture in Yunnan Province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(9): 1694-1705.

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	泸水县	兰坪县	福贡县	贡山县	合计
发放问卷数	250	250	250	250	1000
回收有效问卷数	146	138	170	200	654
有效问卷回收率	58.4%	55.2%	68.0%	80.0%	65.4%
有效问卷覆盖乡镇数	9	8	7	5	29

能源类型	泸水县	福贡县	贡山县	兰坪县	怒江州
电力	99.32%	98.24%	85.50%	94.93%	93.88%
薪柴	77.40%	87.65%	90.50%	81.88%	85.02%
沼气	12.33%	4.71%	5.00%	10.14%	7.65%
煤炭	4.79%	1.18%	6.50%	10.87%	5.66%
可再生能源（太阳能、水能、风能等）	2.05%	1.18%	0.50%	0	0.92%

	泸水县	福贡县	贡山县	兰坪县	怒江州
全年12个月使用薪柴的农户比例	70.80%	75.17%	74.59%	70.80%	73.20%
全年使用薪柴超过6个月的农户比例	88.50%	85.23%	91.71%	86.73%	88.31%
平均每年使用薪柴的时间（月）	10.88	11.13	11.45	11.30	11.22

变量	B	S. E.	Exp(B)
x₁	0.251^**	0.127	1.285
x₄	0.514^*	0.273	1.672
x₇	-0.306^**	0.106	0.736
X₉	-0.429^***	0.135	0.651
x₁₁	0.799^***	0.186	2.222
x₁₃	-0.484^**	0.244	0.616
x₁₄	1.180^**	0.601	3.255
x₁₅	0.499^*	0.277	1.647

县名	乡（镇）	行政村数量	自然村数量	农业人口	人均粮食量 (kg/人)	人均纯收入 (元/年)
贡山	独龙江	6	40	3697	214	533
	丙中洛	4	45	5711	532	807
	茨开	6	59	7368	287	856
	捧打	4	38	5527	439	778
福贡	架科底	6	40	4270	379	722
	子里甲	5	61	1763	369	695
	匹河	9	105	3370	383	699
合计		40	283	31706	--	--