基于结构方程模型的城镇化农民可持续非农生计分析——以晋西北朔州市为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201411003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

晋西北属于国家级和省级限制开发区,其先天脆弱的自然生态系统导致土地沙漠化、水土流失以及农民贫困问题。2000年后晋西北生态脆弱区农民城镇化现象呈规模性增长趋势,通过形成“城镇化农民生计非农化—农地流转—农地规模经营—农村居民收入提高—生态恢复保护”互动关系链,可以为降低晋西北生态脆弱区土地人口压力和恢复其生态环境开辟新途径,而这条关系链存在的关键则是城镇化农民的可持续非农生计。借鉴国际上应用范围最广的可持续生计SL框架——DFID模型,选取晋西北地区大城市朔州市为实证研究对象,基于结构方程模型定量测定了脆弱性背景—生计资本—生计策略—生计结果相互之间复杂的影响机制。研究表明：① 脆弱性背景对生计策略产生显著的负向影响,且通过影响生计策略间接对生计结果产生负向影响。② 人力资本、物质资本、金融资本均对继续留城务工的生计策略产生正向影响;生计资本中只有物质资本对就业性质有影响力。③ 人力资本对职业层次和娱乐生活丰富度均有显著的正向影响;社会资本对职业层次没有显示出显著影响力,但却对进城务工后的收入增加显示出正向影响力;金融资本对娱乐生活丰富度有显著正向作用力。④ 继续留城务工的生计策略对娱乐生活的丰富度有正向影响,就业性质则对收入增加有正向影响力。

关键词: 可持续非农生计, 结构方程模型, 朔州市

Abstract:

Belonging to restricted development zones at both national and provincial level, northwestern Shanxi province has inherent vulnerability of natural ecosystems which have caused land desertification, water and soil loss, and farmers' poverty. Since 2000, the urbanization of farmers in ecological fragile region of northwestern Shanxi has been growing rapidly. Forming an interaction chain of “transformation from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihoods of urbanized farmers—farmland transfer—scale management of farmland—improvement of rural residents' income—ecological restoration and protection” could provide a new way of reducing population pressure on land and restoring ecological environment in the study area. The key point of this interaction chain is the sustainable non-agricultural livelihoods of urbanized farmers. Using DFID model—a sustainable livelihoods (SL) framework which is the most widely applied all over the world as reference, and taking Shuozhou—a big city in northwestern Shanxi for an empirical study, this paper quantitatively measures the complicated influencing mechanism between vulnerability context, livelihoods capitals, livelihoods strategies, and livelihoods outcomes. The results show that: (1) the vulnerability context has a significant negative impact on livelihoods strategies, and it negatively influences livelihoods outcomes indirectly through livelihoods strategies as well. (2) Human capital, physical capital, and financial capital have a positive impact on livelihoods strategies of non-agricultural labor remaining in the city. In livelihoods capitals, only physical capital has impact on the nature of employment. (3) Human capital has a significant positive impact on both career level and richness of entertainment life. Social capital has not exerted significant impact on career level, but has positive impact on the income increase after the farmers moved into the cities. Financial capital shows a significant positive impact on the richness of entertainment life. (4) The livelihoods strategies of non-agricultural labor remaining in the city have a positive impact on the richness of entertainment life. Besides, the nature of employment displays a positive impact on income increase.

Key words: sustainable non-agricultural livelihoods, Structural Equation Model (SEM), Shuozhou city

安祥生, 陈园园, 凌日平. 基于结构方程模型的城镇化农民可持续非农生计分析——以晋西北朔州市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(11): 2021-2033.

Xiangsheng AN, Yuanyuan CHEN, Riping LING. Analysis of sustainable non-agricultural livelihoods of urbanized farmers based on Structural Equation Model: A case study of Shuozhou city in northwestern Shanxi province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(11): 2021-2033.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

外生变量与内生变量特征"

	指标变量	变量描述及样本量
人力资本	文化程度	1(未上过学, 2.2%); 2(小学, 12.7%); 3(初中, 47.3%); 4(高中或中专, 29.4%); 5(大专及以上, 8.5%)
人力资本	非农技能培训	0(否, 33.6%); 1(是, 66.4%)
物质资本	城市自有住房	0(无, 76.4%); 1(有, 23.6%)
	城市自有住房面积	0(0, 76.4%); 1(≤30, 0.5%); 2(31~60, 5%); 3(61~100, 5.5%); 4(>100, 12.6)
	城市住房区位	0(无, 76.4%); 1(工矿区, 1.5%); 2(郊区与城中村, 12.4%); 3(市中心, 9.7%)
	生活耐用消费品得分	0(0, 6.7%); 1(1~3, 8%); 2(4~6, 18.7%); 3(7~9, 27.4%); 4(10~12, 23.9%); 5(13~15, 10.9%); 6(16~18, 4.5%)
金融资本	存款(万元)	1(<1, 49.5%); 2(1~5, 33.1%); 3(5~10, 11.2%); 4(10~20, 3.2%); 5(>20, 3%)
金融资本	信贷机会	1(困难, 60.2%); 2(不清楚, 29.1%); 3(容易, 10.7%)
社会资本	城市中亲朋好友数目	1(≤20, 47.3%); 2(21~40, 20.6%); 3(41~60, 14.7%); 4(61~80, 3.7%); 5(>80, 13.7%)
	担任国家干部的亲戚	0(无, 79.4%); 1(有, 20.6%)
	富裕的亲朋好友	0(无, 58.2%); 1(有, 42%)
	大笔开支时借钱人数	0(0, 27.1%); 1(≤5, 51.2%); 2(6~10, 12.2%); 3(11~15, 4%); 4(16~20, 3.5%); 5(21~25, 0.2%); 6(>25, 1.7%)
	亲朋好友的职业总分	1(<15, 27.9%); 2(15~30, 21.1%); 3(31~45, 15.9%); 4(46~60, 9.5%); 5(61~75, 8.2%); 6(76~90, 3%); 7(91~105, 3.2%); 8(106~120, 3.2%); 9(>120, 3.2%)
脆弱性背景	失业风险	0(无, 74.1%); 1(有, 25.9%)
生计策略	就业性质	1(自由打工, 26.6%); 2(私营企业, 52.0%); 3(自办, 15.7%); 4(国营企业, 15.7%); 5(机关事业单位, 1.0%)
生计策略	继续留城务工	1(否, 12.7%); 2(不确定, 22.1%); 3(是, 65.2%)
生计结果	娱乐丰富度得分	0(0, 10.2%); 1(1~2, 28.1%); 2(3~4, 19.2%); 3(5~6, 13.7%); 4(7~8, 9.5%); 5(9~10, 8.7%); 6(11~12, 4.7%); 7(13~14, 2.7%); 8(15~16, 3.2%)
	职业层次	1(保安、环卫、服务员等, 9.7%); 2(小买卖, 8.5%); 3(工人、库管等, 56.0%); 4(司机、厨师、销售等, 18.2%); 5(白领、自办门市与餐饮等, 7.7%)
	来城非农务工后收入增加(元)	-1(<0, 6.7%); 0(0, 6.7%); 1(1~500, 10.7%); 2(501~1000, 18.7%); 3(1001~1500, 14.9%); 4(1501~2000, 12.2%); 5(2001~2500, 8.0%); 6(2501~3000, 7.5%); 7(3001~4000, 6.5); 8(>4000, 8.2%)

表2

表3

表4

图2

图3

表5

表6

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样本特征项	样本特征值
性别	男(53.3%);女(44.7%)
年龄(岁)	≤20(2.5%);21~30(33.6%);31~40(24.8%);41~50(26.7%);>50(12.4%)
户口所在地	山西省晋西北地区(77.6%);山西省其他地区(11.2%);东部(2.7%);中部(6.9%);西部(1.6%);
居住年限(年)	≤3(34.3%);4~6(19.4%);7~9(12.0%);10~15(20.9%);16~20(4%);>20(8.5%)

潜变量	α	AVE
物质资本	0.810	0.758
社会资本	0.710	0.512
人力资本	0.690	0.523
金融资本	0.320	—

	绝对拟合度				增值拟合度					简约拟合度
拟合指标	Х²/df	GFI	AGFI	RMSEA	NFI	CFI	IFI	NNFI	RFI	PGFI	PNFI
一般标准	<3	[0,1]	[0,1]	<0.1	[0,1]	[0,1]	[0,1]	[0,1]	[0,1]	[0,1]	[0,1]
最佳参考标准	<2	>0.9	>0.9	<0.05	>0.9	>0.9	>0.9	>0.9	>0.9	>0.5	>0.5
验证性因子分析	2.40	0.96	0.93	0.06	0.96	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.57	0.68
修正结构模型	1.67	0.96	0.93	0.04	0.95	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.92	0.54	0.60

	直接效应	间接效应	总效应		直接效应	间接效应	总效应
就业脆弱性—留城务工意愿	-0.173***	0	-0.173***	就业脆弱性—娱乐丰富度	0	-0.088**	-0.088**
人力资本—留城务工意愿	0.124*	0	0.124*	物质资本—娱乐丰富度	0	0.047*	0.047*
物质资本—留城务工意愿	0.093*	0	0.093*	金融资本—娱乐丰富度	0.126**	0.056**	0.182**
金融资本—留城务工意愿	0.110**	0	0.101**	留城务工意愿—娱乐丰富度	0.507**	0	0.507**
物质资本—就业性质	0.165***	0	0.165***	人力资本—娱乐丰富度	0.605***	0.063*	0.668*
人力资本—职业层次	0.279***	0	0.279***	就业性质—收入增加	0.590*	0	0.590*
就业性质—职业层次	0.113**	0	0.113**	物质资本—收入增加	0	0.065*	0.065*
物质资本—职业层次	0	0.012**	0.012**	社会资本—收入增加	0.600*	0	0.600*