极点对称模态分解下中国新疆温度变化趋势的区域特征

doi:10.11821/dlyj201412013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于新疆16个国际交换站1957-2012年年平均温度时间序列,利用极点对称模态分解(ESMD)方法,分析了新疆温度序列的非线性趋势变化特征,并对其空间差异进行了初步探讨。结果表明：50多年来,新疆年平均温度整体上呈现出显著的非线性上升趋势,且其变化存在明显的年际尺度(2年和8年)和年代际尺度(10年和25年);各分量方差贡献率显示年际变化在新疆整体温度变化中占据主导地位,重构的年际变化趋势能精细刻画原始温度序列在研究时期内的波动状况;重构的年代际变化揭示了新疆在1997年前后气候模态有了显著转换,由原来温度以负相位为主的气候模态转向正相位显著的高温气候模态;年平均温度非线性变化趋势具有明显的区域差异,北疆以上升为主,东疆表现出先降后升,南疆变化较为复杂。同时,结果还表明ESMD是一种很好的甄别大尺度循环和非线性趋势的方法。

关键词: 年平均温度, 极点对称模态分解, 本征模函数, 区域差异, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on data of the average annual temperature time series from 16 international exchange stations in Xinjiang during the period 1957-2012, the non-linear trend variations were analyzed by using extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD), and regional differences in variation trend were also discussed. Results indicate that, in the last more than 50 years, the average annual temperature in Xinjiang showed a significant non-linear upward trend, and exhibited obvious changes on interannual (2 and 8 years) and decadal scales (10 and 25 years). Variance contribution rates of each component implied that the interannual change held a dominant position in the overall temperature change in Xinjiang, and the reconstructed interannual variation trend could describe the fluctuation of original temperature during the study period. The reconstructed interdecadal variability suggested that the climate mode in Xinjiang had a significant transformation before and after 1997, namely the characteristic of climate mode shifting from a negative phase to a positive one of mean annual temperature. There were obviously regional differences in non-linear change trend of average annual temperature, thereinto, northern Xinjiang was mainly rising, eastern Xinjiang showed decreased firstly and then increased, the situation in southern Xinjiang was, however, quite complicated. At the same time, the results showed that ESMD was a good method of screening large-scale circulation and non-linear trend.

Key words: average annual temperature, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method, intrinsic mode function (IMF), regional difference, Xinjiang

赵直, 徐晗. 极点对称模态分解下中国新疆温度变化趋势的区域特征[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(12): 2358-2366.

Zhi ZHAO, Han XU. The research of temperature variation trends over Xinjiang in China by extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(12): 2358-2366.

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IMF分量	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	IMF4	R
周期(年)	2	8	10	25
贡献率(%)	33.00	16.38	4.46	10.97	35.19