基于耦合模型的现代服务业与城市化协调关系量化分析——以江苏省常熟市为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201501009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在分析现代服务业与城市化互动关系理论的基础上,借鉴物理学中的耦合理论,分析了现代服务业系统与城市化系统之间协调发展的机制,构建了两个系统的耦合评价模型及指标体系,并以常熟市为例,对两者的耦合协调关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:不同类型的城市,其服务业与城市化之间存在不同的互动关系,对一般综合性城市而言,现代服务业与城市化之间存在明显的耦合关系,二者相互作用,彼此影响。2003-2012年常熟市现代服务业与城市化综合评价函数值总体均呈上升趋势;耦合度在十年间变化极小,基本保持在0.49左右;耦合协调度呈不断上升趋势,实现了从2003-2008年失调阶段向2009-2012年协调阶段的转变。但总体上,两系统耦合协调等级较低,到2012年尚处于初级协调阶段;耦合协调度的类型也长期是城市化发展滞后型。

关键词: 耦合模型, 现代服务业, 城市化, 协调, 常熟

Abstract:

The prosperity of modern service industry has become a remarkable feature of the modern economy. And city is the main space carrier to the development of the modern service industry. Modern service industry is closely related to urbanization; they interact and influence each other. The paper, on the basis of the analysis of the interaction between modern service industry and urbanization, with the help of coupling theory in physics, analyzes the functional mechanism of coordinative development between modern service industry system and urbanization system, and constructs the coupling evaluation model and index system of two systems. With Changshu as an example, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the coupling coordinative development relation between the two systems. We expect our research can grasp the comprehensive development level and the status quo of coordinated development of modern service industry and urbanization in Changshu. In addition, we summarize some common laws about the development of modern service industry and urbanization, and provide theoretical reference and case demonstration for the towns in economically developed areas in China. The main conclusions of this study are as follows. First, there exists the coupling relationship between modern service industry and urbanization. The comprehensive evaluation functional value of urbanization and modern service industry in Changshu generally presents an upward trend from 2003 to 2012. This illustrates that the modern service industry of Changshu have kept a sustained development. Besides, the level of urbanization also has been raised. The coupling degree has changed a little in the past ten years, being around 0.49. Coupling coordinative degree presents a rising trend, the transition from imbalance during 2003-2008 to coordination during 2008-2012. However, on the whole, the coupling coordinative degree of the two systems is very low, and it is only 0.6013 by 2012. In addition, urbanization development lags behind modern service industry for a long time. To achieve a better coordination, further studies need to be strengthened. Finally, we carry on the self-examination for the shortage of the article, and point out the direction of future efforts.

Key words: coupling model, modern service industry, urbanization, coordination, Changshu

王毅, 丁正山, 余茂军, 尚正永, 宋晓雨, 常夏洁. 基于耦合模型的现代服务业与城市化协调关系量化分析——以江苏省常熟市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(1): 97-108.

Yi WANG, Zhengshan DING, Maojun YU, Zhengyong SHANG, Xiaoyu SONG, Xiajie CHANG. Quantitative analysis of the coordination relation between modern service industry and urbanization based on coupling model: A case study of Changshu[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(1): 97-108.

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序号	协调度区间	协调等级	序号	协调度区间	协调等级
1	0.00~0.10	极度失衡	6	0.51~0.60	勉强协调
2	0.11~0.20	严重失衡	7	0.61~0.70	初级协调
3	0.21~0.30	中度失衡	8	0.71~0.80	中级协调
4	0.31~0.40	轻度失衡	9	0.81~0.90	良好协调
5	0.41~0.50	濒临失衡	10	0.91~1.00	优质协调

项目	一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	类型
现代服务业系统	发展水平	0.6107	现代服务业增加值X₁₁	0.1545	+
			现代服务业增加值占GDP的比重X₁₂	0.4758	+
			现代服务业从业人数X₁₃	0.0813	+
			现代服务业就业人数占城镇总就业人数X₁₄	0.2884	+
	增长潜力	0.2353	现代服务业增加值增长速度X₁₅	0.6666	+
	增长潜力	0.2353	现代服务业就业人数增长速度X₁₆	0.3334	+
	服务能力	0.0971	生产性服务业增加值占GDP的比重X₁₇	0.7235	+
			接待境内外游人数X₁₈	0.0833	+
			客运量X₁₉	0.1932	+
	专业化程度	0.0569	金融业区位商X₁₁₀	0.6666	+
	专业化程度	0.0569	房地产业区位商X₁₁₁	0.3334	+
城市化系统	人口城市化	0.2913	城市人口密度X₂₂	0.4538	-
			总就业人数X₂₃	0.1650	+
			非农产业从业人员比重X₂₄	0.2708	+
			人口自然增长率X₂₅	0.1104	-
	经济城市化	0.2415	人均GDP X₂₆	0.3889	+
			城市经济密度X₂₇	0.2771	+
			工业增加值占GDP的比重X₂₈	0.1429	-
			固定资产投资X₂₉	0.1911	+
	社会城市化	0.1907	每万人拥有普通高等学校人数X₂₁₀	0.2930	+
			城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入X₂₁₁	0.4118	+
			每万人拥有卫生医疗人员数X₂₁₂	0.1872	+
			每万人拥有交通车辆数X₂₁₃	0.1080	+
	空间城市化	0.2765	土地城市化率X₂₁₄	0.4658	+
			人均住宅建筑面积X₂₁₅	0.2771	+
			人均公共绿地面积X₂₁₆	0.1611	+
			人均拥有道路面积X₂₁₇	0.0960	+

年份	U₁	U₂	C	D	耦合评价
2003	0.2929	0.3320	0.4990	0.3973	轻度失调
2004	0.2858	0.3494	0.4975	0.4015	濒临失调
2005	0.4254	0.3838	0.4993	0.4472	濒临失调
2006	0.2778	0.3947	0.4924	0.4139	濒临失调
2007	0.4831	0.4446	0.4996	0.4794	濒临失调
2008	0.5118	0.4618	0.4993	0.4905	濒临失调
2009	0.5013	0.4987	0.5000	0.5010	勉强协调
2010	0.6254	0.4849	0.4945	0.5224	勉强协调
2011	0.7962	0.5540	0.4919	0.5658	勉强协调
2012	0.7991	0.6210	0.4961	0.6013	初级协调