北京都市区人口增长的空间规律与机理

doi:10.11821/dlyj201501013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口空间分布的规律及变动趋势对城市空间结构产生重要影响,是城市规划及政策制定的重要依据。在密度函数的基础上,构建新的计量模型,刻画了北京都市区人口增长的空间特征及趋势,并探讨了背后的机理。研究发现,2000-2010年北京都市区人口以集聚为主,北郊和远郊的人口先后呈现快速增长的格局。在中心区人口虽然实现了增长,但密度峰值不断降低,表现出均衡化的发展态势。1984-2010年模型拟合结果显示,随着到中心区距离的增加,人口发展速度呈现出先增后降的倒“U”型。与1984-2005年拟合结果比较发现,2005年以来远郊区人口整体发展速度大幅上升,近郊区平均增长速度也有小幅提升,而中心区人口整体增长速度进一步放缓,倒“U”型格局向线性递增格局演变,显示远郊逐步成为北京人口承载的主体空间。北京市人口增长的空间规律既体现了首都经济快速发展产生的人口集聚作用,也与西北部山区的生态环境建设、中心区旧城保护以及功能疏解等政策密切相关。政策启示是进一步提升远郊服务配套水平,增加就业岗位,建设功能混合、居住—就业—消费平衡的新城,增强人口吸引力。

关键词: 人口密度, 密度函数, 空间规律, 机理, 北京都市区

Abstract:

The population density pattern is a crucial economic and social feature of an urban area, and is an important basis for policy making. The study of urban population densities is an old and continuing preoccupation of urban geographers and urban economists. With the aids of the expansion methods of model construction, we formulate an econometric model to measure the development of population change in metropolitan Beijing by the introduction of time variable, and the mechanism is also discussed. Beijing, one of the most attractive cities in China, has aroused a strong attraction on labor and capital market. So, concentration is the main features of population growth from 2000 to 2010 in metropolitan Beijing. The new trend is inconsistent with the suburbanization trends which are generally accepted from 1982-2000. Population is concentrated from inner suburbs to the new town in outer suburbs, while population outflows from the outskirts of the peripheral area. The regional difference of population density distribution is increasing. The estimation results indicate the 'inverted-U' pattern of population growth from urban core to urban fringe. In the core urban area, the growth rate is the lowest, and decentralization and equalization are the main character of population growth due to the protection of Beijing old city and urban function dissemination. The greatest population growth rate is found to have occurred in the outer suburbs since 2005, and it has risen slightly in inner suburbs. So, the outer suburbs have become the main carrying space of population growth instead of the inner suburbs, while the population growth rate in peripheral outer suburbs declines. In comparison of 1984-2005 with 1984-2010, the population growth pace of the core urban area is gradually slowing down; the 'inverted-U' pattern has become a linear increasing pattern from urban core to urban fringe. Besides the urban conservation and function dissemination, this paper also discusses the factors influencing population growth, including the growth of capital economy, the rapid construction of subways, protection of mountain eco-environmental. In the end, it is recommended that to balance housing and employment, service facilities and employment opportunities in the outer suburbs should be increased, and the mixed land use should be encouraged in order to enhance population attractiveness.

Key words: population density, density function, spatial pattern, mechanism, metropolitan Beijing

饶烨, 宋金平, 于伟. 北京都市区人口增长的空间规律与机理[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(1): 149-156.

Ye RAO, Jinping SONG, Wei YU. Spatial pattern and mechanism of population growth in metropolitan Beijing[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(1): 149-156.

图/表 3

表1

北京都市区街道(乡镇)人口密度的描述统计"

年份	人口密度(人/ km²)
年份	最小值		最大值		均值	标准差
1990	41		62309		7932	11793
2000	28		60512		8712	10966
2010	22		51337		10386	11969
年份	不同人口密度街办的个数(人/ km²)
年份	$<$ 500	500~1000	1000~5000	5000~10000	10000~20000	20000~30000	$≥$ 30000
1990	63	38	36	7	28	21	13
2000	52	35	33	17	24	36	9
2010	43	26	38	17	34	30	18

表1

表2

图1

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变量	系数
变量	模型2	模型6 1984-2010	模型6 1984-2005
β₀(α₀)	6.132^*** (198.00)	5.773^*** (108.03)	5.853^*** (106.74)
t		0.0256^*** (7.68)	0.0164^*** (3.92)
D₁	4.139^*** (84.53)	4.466^*** (52.86)	4.385^*** (50.57)
D₁t		-0.0234^*** (-4.44)	-0.0139^** (-2.11)
D₂	2.198^*** (44.89)	1.981^*** (23.44)	1.960^*** (22.61)
D₂t		0.0156^*** (2.95)	0.0178^*** (2.70)
调整R²	0.95	0.97	0.97
F统计量	3645.44^***	2103.80^***	2077.40^***