新经济地理学视角下中国纺织业区际转移的粘性分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201502006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

如何破除产业区际转移粘性,实现区域经济协调发展已成为近年来国内研究的热点问题。基于新经济地理学视角,综合运用区位熵、产业集聚变动指数和面板数据的门限回归方法,对2000-2010年中国纺织业转移的时空特征及区际转移产生粘性的原因进行了研究。结果表明,尽管东部纺织业已出现明显的转移趋势,但就其跨区向中西部转移而言仍具有很强的粘性,其原因在于：① 纺织业对本地市场具有较强的依赖性,因而在市场接近效应的作用下东部纺织业向中西部地区的转移存在一定的市场阻力;② 纺织业集聚的外部规模效应仍在增强,特别是东部部分省份的纺织业未来仍有较强的集聚动力;③ 东部由于其特定区位优势和经济发展非均衡的特点为该地区纺织业在其内部省份间的调整提供了回旋余地。

关键词: 产业转移, 粘性分析, 门限回归, 中国纺织业

Abstract:

How to get rid of the viscosity of inter-district industry transfer and realize the coordinated development of regional economy has become a hot problem in regional economic field. From the perspective of new economic geography, the paper applies location entropy, industrial agglomeration-changing index and panel-data threshold regression method to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of textile industrial transfer and the viscosity causes of textile industrial inter-district transfer in China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that, although the textile industry of eastern region has presented obvious transfer trend, it has strong viscosity to restrain textile industry's transfer from the eastern region to the central and western regions, and the reasons are shown as follows. (1) The textile industry has a strong dependence on the local market. As a result of market approaching effect, transferring of textile industry from the eastern region to the central and western regions presents strong market resistance. (2) External scale effect of the textile industrial agglomeration is still enhancing, especially textile industry of some of provinces located in the eastern region presents strong agglomeration momentum in the future. (3) Due to particular location advantages and unbalanced development of regional economy, the eastern region still has some space and time to develop the textile industry in its inter-provinces.

Key words: industry transfer, viscous analysis, threshold regression, textile industry, China

耿文才. 新经济地理学视角下中国纺织业区际转移的粘性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(2): 259-269.

Wencai GENG. The viscous analysis on inter-district transfer of textile industry from the perspective of New Economic Geography in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(2): 259-269.

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门限值检验	F值	P值	临界值
门限值检验	F值	P值	10%	5%	1%
单一门限检验	66.67^***	0.0060	43.5916	49.1710	63.4374
双重门限检验	43.16^***	0.0020	26.3372	30.7809	36.7232
三重门限检验	24.90	0.1380	26.1852	29.5457	37.2349

门限值估计	估计值	95%置信区间
门限值ψ₁	0.07	[0.04, 0.09]
门限值ψ₂	0.82	[0.82, 0.82]

地区	省份	区位熵（LQ）			产业集聚变动指数（I_c）
地区	省份	2000年	2005年	2010年	产业集聚变动指数（I_c）
东部地区	北京	0.26	0.22	0.08	-0.75
	河北	0.88	0.62	0.69	-0.49
	天津	0.91	0.39	0.13	-1.00
	辽宁	0.32	0.28	0.32	0.00
	上海	1.03	0.73	0.32	-1.00
	江苏	2.79	2.63	2.26	-0.14
	浙江	2.66	3.46	3.24	0.48
	福建	0.53	0.98	1.15	0.86
	山东	1.37	1.59	2.26	0.86
	广东	1.05	0.94	0.78	-0.51
中部地区	山西	0.28	0.14	0.04	-0.75
	吉林	0.26	0.16	0.13	-0.87
	黑龙江	0.21	0.10	0.05	-1.00
	安徽	0.81	0.49	0.57	-0.52
	江西	0.37	0.35	0.79	0.68
	河南	0.83	0.54	0.85	0.05
	湖北	1.33	0.62	0.86	-0.49
	湖南	0.26	0.28	0.38	0.50
西部地区	内蒙古	0.66	0.63	0.56	-0.19
	广西	0.19	0.15	0.17	-0.14
	重庆	0.25	0.23	0.33	0.33
	四川	0.31	0.30	0.55	0.67
	贵州	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.75
	云南	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.71
	陕西	0.56	0.32	0.18	-1.00
	甘肃	0.29	0.11	0.06	-0.74
	青海	0.16	0.13	0.21	0.14
	宁夏	0.12	0.86	0.88	0.70
	新疆	0.92	0.43	0.29	-0.61

集聚区分类	变量	系数估计值	稳健标准差	t_white	P-value
	lnmar	1.071^***	0.061	17.43	0.000
	open	-0.048	0.121	-0.40	0.689
	bin	-0.021	0.075	-0.28	0.780
低集聚区	lnk	0.357^***	0.083	4.30	0.000
	lnl	-0.510^***	0.094	-5.45	0.000
	lnlq	0.308^**	0.147	2.09	0.037
中集聚区	lnk	0.362^***	0.074	4.91	0.000
	lnl	-0.257^***	0.072	-3.55	0.000
	lnlq	0.450^***	0.072	6.22	0.000
高集聚区	lnk	0.090	0.102	0.88	0.377
	lnl	-0.376^***	0.078	-4.80	0.000
	lnlq	0.910^***	0.146	6.23	0.000
F统计量		143.77^***
固定效应的F检验		5.39^***
样本容量N		319