舟山群岛旅游生态健康动态评价

doi:10.11821/dlyj201502010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旅游生态健康评价是生态健康评价理论在旅游领域的具体应用。从旅游生态健康的定义和特征出发,构建了基于活力、组织结构、恢复力、服务功能、社区人群健康和教育水平的舟山群岛旅游生态健康评价指标体系;使用最小二乘法模型、多目标线性加权函数模型和障碍度模型对其2000-2012年旅游生态健康状况进行了动态评价以及障碍因子分析,并根据其变化趋势,使用GM（1,1）模型预测了2013-2015年舟山群岛旅游生态健康发展趋势。研究表明：① 2000-2012年,舟山群岛旅游生态健康指数总体呈上升趋势,其数值由0.231增加至0.790;② 旅游总收入、环保投入占GDP比重、城镇生活污水处理率和旅客运输量4个指标是影响舟山群岛旅游生态健康的主要障碍因子;③ 2013-2015年,舟山群岛旅游生态健康指数将继续呈上升趋势,其预测值分别为0.873、0.965和1.065。

关键词: 旅游生态健康, 评价, 舟山群岛

Abstract:

Assessment on ecosystem health is the application of assessment on ecosystem health theory in the field of tourism research. Based on the definition and characteristics of tourism ecological health, the authors built a set of evaluation indicators of tourism ecological health namely vigor, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education level. Afterwards, tourism ecological health in Zhoushan Islands between 2000 and 2012 was evaluated with least squares model, multi-objective linear weighting function model and the obstacle degree model, the tourism ecological health index of Zhoushan Islands was also been forecasted by GM(1,1) model based on its developing trend. The results were shown as follows: (1) tourism ecosystem health index in Zhoushan Islands presented a rising trend between 2000 and 2012 as a whole, whose figure is from 0.231 to 0.790. The tourism ecological health indexes of the community crowd health and education level, restoring force, vigor, service function and the organization structure also increased. (2) The main obstacle factors that affected the tourism ecosystem health in Zhoushan Islands were tourism revenue, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, urban sewage treatment rate, and tourist traffic number. (3) The tourism ecosystem health in Zhoushan Islands will keep improving from 2013 to 2015 with predicted health indexes of 0.873, 0.965 and 1.065, and health indexes of the subsystem of vigor, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education levels will also keep improving from 2013 to 2015, which predicted that health indexes are 0.873, 0.965 and 1.065, and health indexes of the subsystem of vigor element, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education levels will also keep improving. The following questions need to be further researched: (1) assessment index system needs further improvement, espacially the establishment of a system of islands tourism ecological health index; (2) construction of a targeted tourism ecosystem health evaluation index and evaluation model, according to different space scales of tourism destinations, such as scenic spots, provincial tourist destination and destination country; (3) to define the connotation of the ecological health of tourism, identify factors, determine the standard of tourism ecological health, use GIS and RS technology in tourism ecological health assessment, and predict the tourism development trend accurately.

Key words: tourism ecological health, assessment, Zhoushan Islands

周彬, 钟林生, 陈田, 赵宽. 舟山群岛旅游生态健康动态评价[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(2): 306-318.

Bin ZHOU, Linsheng ZHONG, Tian CHEN, Kuan ZHAO. Dynamic assessment on tourism ecological health in Zhoushan Islands[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(2): 306-318.

图/表 9

表1

舟山群岛旅游生态健康评价指标体系与指标权重"

要素	类别	指标	指标性质	指标权重
活力	旅游经济	X₁海岛旅游总收入（万元）	+	0.0456
		X₂海岛旅游总人数（万人次）	+	0.0324
		X₃海岛旅游外汇收入（万美元）	+	0.0336
		X₄海岛旅游收入增长率（%）	+	0.0351
		X₅海岛旅游总人数增长率（%）	+	0.0261
	资源与能源	X₆人均水资源（m³/人）	+	0.0229
		X₇人均耕地面积（亩/人）	+	0.0274
		X₈单位GDP能耗降低率（%）	+	0.0227
组织结构	经济结构	X₉海岛旅游收入占GDP比重（%）	+	0.0303
		X₁₀海洋经济比重（%）	+	0.0193
		X₁₁财政收入占GDP比重（%）	+	0.0326
	社会结构	X₁₂游客密度（人次/km³）	+	0.0397
	社会结构	X₁₃游客接待量与人口数量比（%）	+	0.0350
	自然结构	X₁₄绿化覆盖面积（hm²）	+	0.0247
		X₁₅海岛生物多样性指数	+	0.0288
		X₁₆海岛生境破碎度	-	0.0393
恢复力	环境废弃物处理率	X₁₇生活垃圾无害化处理率（%）	+	0.0328
	环境废弃物处理率	X₁₈城镇生活污水处理率（%）	+	0.0421
	物质循环利用率	X₁₉“三废”综合利用产品产值（万元）	+	0.0352
	物质循环利用率	X₂₀海岛工业固体废弃物利用率（%）	+	0.0210
	环境保护投资指数	X₂₁环保投入占GDP比重（%）	+	0.0546
服务功能	旅游服务功能	X₂₂旅游社个数（个）	+	0.0246
		X₂₃星级饭店数（个）	+	0.0234
		X₂₄旅客运输量（万人次）	+	0.0373
		X₂₅旅客周转量（万人公里）	+	0.0304
	生态环境状况	X₂₆ SO₂排放总量（t）	-	0.0277
		X₂₇海岛环境噪声平均生效等级（dB）	-	0.0233
		X₂₈近海一、二类海水比例（%）	+	0.0242
社区人群健康和教育水平	社区人群健康水平	X₂₉医疗卫生机构数（个）	+	0.0325
	社区人群健康水平	X₃₀医疗机构床位数（个）	+	0.0342
	社区教育水平	X₃₁教育经费占GDP比重（%）	+	0.0330
	社区教育水平	X₃₂在校大学生人数（人）	+	0.0282

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

图3

表4

表5

图4

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年份	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
综合指数	0.231	0.264	0.281	0.249	0.375	0.367	0.437	0.494	0.512	0.612	0.644	0.715	0.790
活力	0.341	0.402	0.367	0.214	0.536	0.469	0.559	0.469	0.483	0.490	0.559	0.569	0.717
组织结构	0.281	0.343	0.361	0.356	0.423	0.399	0.358	0.441	0.467	0.530	0.615	0.665	0.690
恢复力	0.129	0.062	0.070	0.166	0.158	0.265	0.453	0.707	0.698	0.909	0.930	0.895	0.888
服务功能	0.255	0.211	0.301	0.230	0.421	0.384	0.433	0.442	0.502	0.705	0.624	0.778	0.801
社区人群健康和教育水平	0.034	0.216	0.238	0.254	0.221	0.229	0.340	0.413	0.399	0.434	0.476	0.736	0.966

年份	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
活力	21.06	19.96	21.65	25.71	18.26	20.62	19.26	25.78	26.03	32.31	30.46	37.15	33.12
组织结构	23.35	22.29	22.20	21.41	23.06	23.68	28.46	27.58	27.25	30.21	26.97	29.29	36.82
恢复力	21.03	23.67	24.03	20.61	25.02	21.55	18.05	10.73	11.48	4.32	3.63	6.82	9.87
服务功能	18.51	20.47	18.56	19.57	17.72	18.58	19.24	21.06	19.51	14.54	20.17	14.90	18.19
社区人群健康和教育水平	16.06	13.61	13.56	12.69	15.94	15.56	14.99	14.84	15.74	18.62	18.78	11.83	1.99

指标	出现次数	出现频率（%）
X₁旅游总收入	9	69.23
X₂₁环保投入占GDP比重	8	61.54
X₁₈城镇生活污水处理率	7	53.85
X₂₄旅客运输量	7	53.85
X₁₆海岛生境破碎度	6	46.15
X₁₂游客密度	6	46.15
X₃₁教育经费占GDP比重	6	46.15