长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理

doi:10.11821/dlyj201503009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

污染密集型产业转移及影响机理研究已成为区域可持续发展的研究热点之一。利用长江三角洲地区2000-2010年面板数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析工具,探讨污染密集型产业的时空格局演变特征及转移规律,构建计量学模型,定量地揭示其转移的驱动机理。结果表明：①近十年来,长江三角洲地区的污染密集型产业具有空间转移特征,转移方向基本符合沪宁—沪杭甬交通线,呈现由中心城市到外围城市、由集中到分散转移态势;②污染密集型产业转移主要受到外向度和劳动力成本拉动,而与经济发展水平呈负相关,环境规制、产业结构、创新能力均产生重要推动作用。③长江三角洲地区经济发展目前已逐渐摆脱依赖污染密集型产业的迹象,但污染密集型产业区位仍未发生根本性改变。

关键词: 污染密集型产业, 空间转移, 驱动机理, 长江三角洲地区

Abstract:

The world is moving further toward economic globalization and trade liberalization. Industrial relocation is an important way to upgrading the industrial structure and promoting regional coordinated development, which usually assumes relocating industrial production from prosperous zones to less developed zones. Against the background, it has become a hotspot in the research of regional sustainable development in the places where the pollution-intensive industry is relocated and what causes the pollution.Based on the panel data of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2010 and using spatial analysis tool of ArcGIS, this paper explores the characteristics and regularities of spatial-temporal pattern of pollution-intensive industry, and comes to a quantitative conclusion on the driving mechanism of pollution-intensive industry's relocation by constructing a metrological model. Results suggest: (1) In the last 10 years, the phenomenon of pollution-intensive industry's relocation is found in the Yangtze River Delta. The direction of its relocation coincides with Shanghai-Nanjing railway and Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo railway. Moreover, the general trend is from the center to the periphery, which is an accelerated diffusion trend. Generally, the speed of diffusion is faster in the latter 5 years than in the former 5 years, but it has been a little slower since 2008; (2) There are many factors contributing to the relocation of pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Delta, among which export-oriented degree and labor costs help pollution-intensive industry to relocate, while the intensity of environmental governance, industrial structure and innovation capability prevent pollution-intensive industry from relocating to destination. What’s more, economic development level is negatively related to the relocation. Given that, it is concluded that the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta is independent to pollution-intensive industry, which contributes less to the growth of GDP nowadays than 10 years ago. However, the Yangtze River Delta has not got rid of the position of "Pollution haven", because the location of pollution-intensive industry has not changed fundamentally, and Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou remain to be on centre stage of pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Delta, as well the export-oriented degree is particularly noticeable in this region. To some extent, this is related to the recent economic downturn after the financial crisis in 2008. Hence, it is an arduous task and long way to upgrade the overall industrial structure, in order to maintain the sustained regional development. Furthermore, the need for more serious environmental supervision is urgent, so government should pay more attention to the coordination between industrial development and environmental protection.

Key words: pollution-intensive industry, spatial relocation, driving mechanism, Yangtze River Delta

崔建鑫, 赵海霞. 长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(3): 504-512.

Jianxin CUI, Haixia ZHAO. Spatial relocation of pollution-intensive industry and the mechanism in Yangtze River Delta[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(3): 504-512.

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因素名称	指标选取	说明
污染密集型产业发展	污染密集型产业产值	产值能够体现产业增长状况,因产业转移不好体现,借用产值体现污染密集型产业增长状况,进而分析其增长的驱动机理,从中挖掘产业转移的贡献部分。
经济发展阶段	人均GDP	经济发展阶段对污染密集型产业转移产生基础性作用,低水平发展阶段可能促进污染密集型产业增长,高水平发展阶段可能抑制其增长,进而对其转移产生重要影响。
产业结构	重化工行业产值比重	产业结构调整对于污染密集型产业必然产生重要影响,运用重化工行业产值比重更能从环境角度体现产业结构清洁化水平。
外向度	出口总额	“国际污染避难所”理论解释了外向度对污染密集型产业发展的重要影响,出口总额与外商直接投资均能有效代表地区外向水平,长江三角洲地区是否摆脱了污染避难所的地位是污染密集型产业转移研究中的重要问题。
创新能力	研究与实验发展经费支出	地区创新能力代表了技术水平,科技在产业发展中产生重要推动作用,科技发展一方面促进成本降低,进而推动产业发展;另一方面高技术产业发展必然对污染密集型产业产生抑制作用,因此科技对污染密集型产业的影响值得探讨。
环境治理力度	环保投资额	政府调控是产业转移的重要动因,环境治理力度是政府针对污染密集型产业调控的重要方面。
要素成本	在岗职工平均工资	从生产要素的角度分析污染密集型产业,需要考虑要素成本因素,包括劳动力价格和土地价格。

因素	非标准化系数	标准化系数	t检验值	P值
(Constant)	0.536		27.573	0.018
X₁	-5.375	-0.395	-40.220	0.004
X₂	163.745	0.066	-18.761	0.034
X₃	0.245	0.832	65.382	0.000
X₄	-8.184	-0.204	-37.594	0.012
X₅	-34.291	-0.486	-53.271	0.000
X₆	12.667	0.400	71.572	0.000