江苏省工业转型的时空分异特征与机理

doi:10.11821/dlyj201504016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用GIS空间分析技术及工业转型系数、工业高级化指数、空间基尼系数、专业化指数和偏离—份额分析等方法,深入分析了2000-2012年江苏省工业转型的时空演化特征及驱动机理。研究发现：近10年来江苏省工业转型速度呈先快后慢而高级化呈较快提升趋势,工业转型对工业发展的促进作用具有滞后性;各工业部门增长速度差异显著,竞争优势行业和主导产业均发生更替,但主导产业的主导作用变化不明显;空间上,不同发展水平的地区工业转型速度、方向及空间集聚程度各异,形成了苏州—无锡、南京、徐州三个工业空间集聚高地;工业专业化分工梯度差异显著,呈现以苏南为核心向外工业技术层次逐渐降低的圈层式垂直分工格局;资源禀赋、技术创新、贸易需求、区域政策是造成江苏工业转型时空分异格局演化的主要驱动力。

关键词: 工业转型, 时空分异, 机理, 江苏省

Abstract:

Industry upgrading is an important way for speeding up economic development transformation, which is in accordance with economic growth. Based on the GIS spatial technology, the paper analyzes the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics in Jiangsu province during the industrial transformation period from 2000 to 2012 using the methods of industrial transformation coefficient, high-level industrial index, Gini-coefficient index, and specialization index and shift-share analysis. Major findings of this research are: (1) the industrial transformation advancement demonstrates a slowdown increase after a period of rapid development, while the industrial structure upgrade is always advancing quickly in the past 10 years. At the same time, the growth rates of industries are different and the competitive superiority industries are replaced by the capital and technology intensive industries, as well as the leading industries which are mainly chemical industry, electronic appliances, instrument and meters. The fastest growing industry covers advanced manufacturing and environmental protection industries. (2) In spatial structure, the industrial transformation coefficient gradually reduces from North Jiangsu to Middle Jiangsu, followed by South Jiangsu. The advancement of industry structure shows the trend of dish distribution with the high periphery and the low Hongze Lake-surrounded area. The industrial agglomeration demonstrates the pattern of high north-south and low central Jiangsu, and three main highlands of industrial agglomeration including Suzhou, Nanjing and Xuzhou. In addition, this article also finds out that industrial specialization level turns on a circle-shaped pattern in Jiangsu province, with the level of industrial technology gradually reducing with South Jiangsu as the core radiating to its neighboring regions. (3) Resource endowment, technology innovation, market demand and regional policy are the main driving forces for spatial and temporal variations of industrial transformation. (4) The proposals of advancing industrial transformation are put forward, such as promoting the advancement of industry structure, optimizing industrial space layout, promoting the specialized labor division, improving the scientific and reasonable industrial transformation mechanism.

Key words: industrial transformation, spatial and temporal differentiation, mechanism, Jiangsu

仇方道, 唐晓丹, 张纯敏, 朱传耿, 姚晓蔚. 江苏省工业转型的时空分异特征与机理[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(4): 787-800.

Fangdao QIU, Xiaodan TANG, Chunmin ZHANG, Chuangeng ZHU, Xiaowei YAO. Characteristics and mechanism of spatial-temporal differentiation in Jiangsu province during the period of industrial transformation[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(4): 787-800.

图/表 9

表1

表2

江苏省各工业行业偏离—份额表"

产业	2000-2006年					2006-2012年
产业	N_ij		P_ij	D_ij	G_ij	N_ij	P_ij	D_ij	G_ij
采矿业	18.04	271.75	-75.76	214.03		167.71	587.69	-371.22	384.18
食品加工业	39.32	865.65	-418.09	486.89		394.45	2210.41	-143.96	2460.90
食品制造业	3.96	230.98	-121.15	113.78		28.39	487.49	-98.31	417.56
饮料制造业	3.27	156.56	-8.16	151.67		31.98	670.68	-118.36	584.30
纺织业	146.90	2297.19	-15.90	2428.20		724.84	3329.85	-1719.72	2334.97
服装及其他纤维品制造业	18.95	689.67	290.71	999.33		189.79	2450.07	-648.59	1991.27
皮革毛皮羽绒及其制品业	4.17	261.31	-98.56	166.92		24.74	485.92	-74.99	435.67
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业	1.85	239.21	72.31	313.37		38.01	1302.56	-142.46	1198.11
家具制造业	0.62	142.42	-59.77	83.26		5.36	238.55	-142.41	101.49
造纸及纸制品业	7.40	391.42	-9.24	389.58		52.31	837.84	-198.53	691.62
印刷业和记录媒介的复制	0.69	95.82	-23.94	72.57		4.32	212.45	153.76	370.52
文教体育用品制造业	1.25	172.56	8.22	182.04		27.40	1306.96	-480.68	853.68
石油加工及炼焦业	31.26	573.41	-82.53	522.14		219.32	1021.03	35.14	1275.49
化学原料及化学制品制造业	179.34	2493.24	228.76	2901.35		2194.82	7000.78	39.16	9234.76
医药制造业	6.00	282.74	76.92	365.66		77.62	1247.34	442.17	1767.13
化学纤维制造业	6.65	451.40	253.43	711.47		41.67	1072.06	324.03	1437.77
塑料橡胶制品业	27.08	828.15	-59.80	795.43		211.13	1773.82	-896.09	1088.87
非金属矿物制品业	36.88	818.78	-232.36	623.30		397.80	2509.76	-361.46	2546.11
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业	111.53	1907.41	1326.56	3345.50		1960.55	4651.35	-790.85	5821.04
有色金属冶炼及压延加工业	28.44	1088.99	64.10	1181.53		419.79	2360.30	-823.88	1956.21
金属制品业	27.98	915.85	180.59	1124.43		376.55	3405.70	-548.02	3234.23
普通机械制造业	86.58	2347.90	-643.46	1791.02		725.62	3800.60	-420.58	4105.64
专用设备制造业	24.27	924.18	-184.46	763.99		280.35	2739.58	268.66	3288.59
交通运输设备制造业	89.18	1334.93	-170.08	1254.03		959.80	3074.43	2711.22	6745.44
电气机械及器材制造业	110.14	1841.64	289.67	2241.45		1285.22	4776.25	3765.67	9827.14
计算机通信及其他电子设备制造业	281.94	2917.59	2249.22	5448.76		2824.73	4491.55	2472.12	9788.40
仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业	4.15	405.18	99.41	508.74		24.22	562.12	1386.73	1973.07
其他制造业	7.63	407.91	-190.38	225.15		22.97	319.41	-6.18	336.20
废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业						1.05	212.16	79.67	292.87
电力、热力的生产和供应业	83.60	1318.86	-952.19	450.27		329.82	898.94	3.47	1232.23

表2

图1

图2

表3

图3

图4

图5

图6

参考文献 35

[1]	李国平, 黄国勇. 产业转型的国内研究综述. 山西财经大学学报, 2006, 28(2): 54-58.
	[Li Guoping, Huang Guoyong.National research statement of industry transition. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, 2006, 28(2): 54-58.]
[2]	河南省社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组. 后发地区工业转型升级的路径选择: 以中原经济区为例. 区域经济评论, 2013, (1): 14-18.
	[Research Group of Institute of Industrial Economic, Social Science Academy of Henan Province. Route choice of industrial transformation and upgrading of backward area. Regional Economic Review, 2013, (1): 14-18.]
[3]	凌文昌, 邓伟根. 产业转型与中国经济增长. 中国工业经济, 2004, (12): 20-24.
	[Ling Wenchan, Deng Weigen.Industrial transition and economic growth in China. China Industrial Economy, 2004, (12): 20-24.]
[4]	Michael P.Industrial structure and aggregate growth. Structure Change and Economic Dynamics, 2003, 14(4): 427-448.
[5]	Friedman J.Cities in Social Transformation. Cambridge, UK: MIT Press, 1996.
[6]	Vellinga P, Herb N.Industrial transformation project: IT science plan. IHDP Report No. 12, Bonn: IHDP Secretariat, 1999.
[7]	Ratnayake Ravi.Industry concentration and competition: New Zealand experience. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1999, 17(7): 1041-1057.
[8]	Gereffi G.International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain. Journal of International Economics, 1999, 48(1): 37-70.
[9]	Humphrey J, Schmitz H.Governance and upgrading: Linking industrial cluster and global value chain research. IDS Working Paper 120, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, 2000.
[10]	Schmitz H.Local upgrading in global value chains: Recent findings. the DRUID Summer Conference on Industrial Dynamics, Innovation and Development, Elsinore, Denmark, 2004.
[11]	Storper M.The transition to flexible specialization in industry. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1989, 13(4): 273-305.
[12]	Staranczak G A, Sepulveda E R, Dilworth P A, et al.Industry structure, productivity and international competitiveness: The case of telecommunications. Information Economics and Policy, 1994, 6(2): 121-142.
[13]	Allred B B, Swan K S.The mediating role of innovation on the influence of industry structure and national context on firm performance. Journal of International Management, 2005, 11(2): 229-252.
[14]	Cammett M.Business-government relations and industrial change: The politics of upgrading in Morocco and Tunisia. World Development, 2007, 35(11): 1889-1903.
[15]	Dewick P, Green K, Fleetwood T, et al.Modeling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 73(9): 1084-1106.
[16]	代丹丹, 周春山. 1995年以来广州市产业转型特征研究. 经济地理, 2012, 32(11): 81-88.
	[Dai Dandan, Zhou Chunshan.Study on the characteristics of the industrial transformation for Guangzhou since 1995. Economic Geography, 2012, 32(11): 81-88.]
[17]	张炳申, 周文良. 珠三角工业转型分析. 福建论坛: 人文社会科学版, 2005, (10): 103-107.
	[Zhang Bingkun, Zhou Wenliang.Analysis on industrial transformation in Pearl River Delta. Fujian Forum: Humanities and Social Sciences, 2005, (10): 103-107.]
[18]	金碚. 中国工业的转型升级. 中国工业经济, 2011, (7): 5-14.
	[Jin Bei.Transformation and upgrading of China's industry. China Industrial Economy, 2011, (7): 5-14.]
[19]	姜晓丽, 张平宇, 郭文炯. 辽宁沿海经济带产业分工研究. 地理研究, 2014, 33(1): 96-106.
	[Jiang Xiaoli, Zhang Pingyu, Guo Wenjiong.The study on division of labor in Liaoning coastal economic belt. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(1): 96-106.]
[20]	毛琦梁, 董锁成, 黄永斌, 等. 首都圈产业分布变化及其空间溢出效应分析. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 899-914. [ Mao Qiliang, Dong Suocheng, Huang Yongbin, et al. Spatial spillovers effects and spatial pattern of manufacturing industries evolvement in the Capital Metropolitan Region of China. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(5): 899-914.]
[21]	李桢业. 工业结构转型与工业增长质量. 浙江社会科学, 2008, (10): 28-36.
	[Li Zhenye.Conversion of industry structure and quality of industrial development. Zhejiang Social Sciences, 2008, (10): 28-36.]
[22]	黄林. 区域产业转型重新定位与对策. 改革与战略, 2009, (11): 118-121.
	[Huang Lin.Relocation of regional industrial transfer and its countermeasures. Reformations Strategy, 2009, (11): 118-121.]
[23]	陈雯, Dietrich S, 左文芳. 工业绿色化: 工业环境地理学研究动向. 地理研究, 2003, 22(5): 601-608.
	[Chen Wen, Dietrich S, Zuo Wenfang.The greening of industry: A research approach of industrial environmental geography. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(5): 601-608.]
[24]	刘亮. 金融推动江苏产业结构升级研究. 苏州大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2012, 33(2): 123-127.
	[Liu Liang.Study on finance to promote industrial structure upgrade in Jiangsu. Journal of Soochow University: Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition, 2012, 33(2): 123-127.]
[25]	陈万明, 石丽. 江苏产业结构与就业结构互动关系分析. 商业研究, 2012, (5): 74-78.
	[Chen Wanming, Shi Li.Analysis of the interaction of industrial structure and employment structure in Jiangsu. Commercial Research, 2012, (5): 74-78. ]
[26]	李传殿. 江苏产业结构优化升级问题探讨. 江苏社会科学, 2011, (5): 229-233.
	[Li Chuandian.On optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of Jiangsu. Jiangsu Social Sciences, 2011, (5): 229-233.]
[27]	陈晓, 陈雯, 王丹. 江苏省工业经济时空差异及增长趋同. 地理研究, 2010, 29(7): 1305-1316.
	[Chen Xiao, Chen Wen, Wang Dan.Temporal and spatial differences and growth of convergence concerning industrial economy in Jiangsu. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(7): 1305-1316.]
[28]	吕卫国, 陈雯. 江苏省内一体化、制造业聚散与地区间分工演化. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(2): 223-232. [ Lv Weiguo, Chen Wen. Dynamics of spatial distribution of manufacturing industries and regional specialization during the process of regional integration: A case of Jiangsu province . Geographical Research, 2013, 32(2): 223-232.]
[29]	吕明元, 尤萌萌. 韩国产业结构变迁对经济增长方式转型的影响. 世界经济研究, 2013, (7): 73-80.
	[Lu Mingyuan, You Mengmeng.The effects of industrial structure changing on transformation of economic growth mode in South Korea. World Economy Study, 2013, (7): 73-80.]
[30]	李芳, 龚新蜀, 张磊. 新疆产业结构升级测度与产业结构优化研究. 特区经济, 2012, (3): 212-214.
	[Li Fang, Gong Xinshu, Zhang Lei.Measure and optimization of industrial structure upgrade of Xinjiang. Special Zone Economy, 2012, (3): 212-214.]
[31]	童江华, 徐建刚, 曹晓辉, 等. 基于SSM的主导产业选择基准: 以南京为例. 经济地理, 2007, 27(5): 733-740.
	[Tong Jianghua, Xu Jiangang, Cao Xiaohui, et al.The research on the benchmark of the choice of leading industry based on the shift-share-method. Economic Geography, 2007, 27(5): 733-740.]
[32]	樊秀峰, 康晓琴. 陕西省制造业产业集聚度测算及其影响因素实证分析. 经济地理, 2013, 33(9): 115-119.
	[Fan Xiufeng, Kang Xiaoqin.Agglomeration level measurement of manufacturing in Shaanxi province and its influencing factors empirical analysis. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(9): 115-119.]
[33]	谢品, 李良智, 赵立昌. 江西省制造业产业集聚、地区专业化与经济增长实证研究. 经济地理, 2013, 33(6): 103-108.
	[Xie Pin, Li Liangzhi, Zhao Lichang.An empirical study on industrial agglomeration, regional specialization and economic growth of manufacturing industry in Jiangxi province. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(6): 103-108.]
[34]	郝俊卿, 曹明明, 王雁林. 关中城市群产业集聚的空间演变及效应分析. 人文地理, 2013, 28(3): 96-100.
	[Hao Junqing, Cao Mingming, Wang Yanglin.A study on spatial evolution and effect of industrial agglomeration of Guanzhong city-region in the middle of Shaanxi province. Human Geography, 2013, 28(3): 96-100.]
[35]	吴三忙, 李善同. 市场一体化、产业地理集聚与地区专业化分工演变. 产业经济研究, 2010, (6): 1219-1228.
	[Wu Sanmang, Li Shantong.Market integration, industrial agglomeration and regional specialization. Industrial Economics Research, 2010, (6): 1219-1228.]

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
工业转型系数		0.049	0.067	0.207	0.146	0.064	0.098	0.044	0.061	0.091	0.066	0.082	0.041
工业增长速度(%)		12.322	18.128	30.130	36.689	28.813	26.979	29.100	21.598	13.518	25.756	17.265	11.416
高级化指数	5.993	6.003	6.073	6.241	6.337	6.308	6.321	6.375	6.457	6.560	6.635	6.707	6.684

产业类型	分类	区域名称
劳动密集型产业	发展滞后,后劲较强	宿迁
劳动密集型产业	发展滞后,后劲较弱	南京、苏州、无锡、常州、镇江、扬州、泰州、南通、徐州、盐城、连云港
资源密集型产业	发展超前,后劲较强	盐城、连云港
	发展超前,后劲较弱	南京、无锡、常州、镇江、泰州
	发展滞后,后劲较弱	苏州、扬州、南通、徐州、淮安、宿迁
资本技术密集型产业	发展超前,后劲较强	南京、无锡、常州、镇江、扬州、泰州、南通、徐州、淮安、宿迁
资本技术密集型产业	发展超前,后劲较弱	盐城、连云港