1985-2010年中国省际人口迁移时空格局特征

doi:10.11821/dlyj201506012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

改革开放以来,伴随着快速城镇化进程的推进以及20世纪80年代户籍制度出现松动,大规模跨区域的人口迁移流动已呈现不可阻挡之势,人口迁移时空格局亦发生着剧烈的变化。目前大多数相关研究只关注某一特定时期的人口迁移,故而人口迁移的时空格局分析显得尤其重要。使用双组分趋势制图法和1985-1990年、1990-1995年、1995-2000年、2000-2005年以及2005-2010年五个时期的人口迁移数据,分析人口迁入、迁出和净迁移的强度及其变化特征。在研究时期内,中国省际人口迁移表现出强烈的空间差异,迁移强度也有大幅的增加。八个主要人口迁入地全部位于东部三个经济快速增长的发展区域（珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和京津冀都市圈）内,而主要的人口来源地都是相对欠发达的中西部省份,这和全国经济发展空间格局完全吻合。双组分趋势地图结果显示南方省份的人口迁移强度及变化趋势都强于北方省份,因此从某种意义上说,在1985-2010年间,南方省份的人口迁移较北方省份更活跃,这可能主要受到南北方自然地理环境以及文化差异的影响。人口迁移时空格局分析结果表明,中国的人口迁移规律正在逐渐形成新特色,东部和西部地区之间的人口流动主要是受到经济因素和区域发展差异的影响,而南方和北方地区的人口迁移活跃程度则主要是由自然地理环境以及文化差异所致。

关键词: 时空格局, 双组分趋势地图, 省际人口迁移, 经济文化因素

Abstract:

Migration plays an increasing role in economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades in China. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, it is critical to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010, we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in Eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic regions of Eastern China (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Jing-Jin-Ji Metropolitan Area), while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with economic development patterns in China. The results of bicomponent trend mapping show that most provinces with an increasing trend in in-migration are located in South China, and those with a decreasing trend are in North China. Therefore, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than that in the north over the last three decades, which might largely be the results of cultural differences between the south and north. These results on spatial-temporal patterns reveal that migration has a strong relationship with regional development, and economic-cultural factors may be of increased relevance to interprovincial migration.

Key words: spatial-temporal pattern, bicomponent trend mapping, interprovincial migration, economic and cultural factors

李扬, 刘慧, 汤青. 1985-2010年中国省际人口迁移时空格局特征[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(6): 1135-1148.

Yang LI, Hui LIU, Qing TANG. Spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration during 1985-2010[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(6): 1135-1148.

图/表 12

图1

表1

1985-2010年中国省际人口迁移量"

省份	1985-1990年			1990-1995年			1995-2000年			2000-2005年			2005-2010年
省份	迁入		迁出		迁入		迁出		迁入	迁出	迁入	迁出	迁入	迁出
北京	672662	132148		676368	114059		1989158	183537		2245358	329811		3827760	405950
天津	244607	72194		217404	60293		517874	109768		908453	106717		1497120	213360
河北	520387	645704		490036	405684		810432	918116		611849	989509		924090	2017390
山西	307026	218472		154287	136559		402874	351126		210189	345208		498210	793680
内蒙古	254306	303129		268054	242047		342621	464274		394038	417057		827680	647590
辽宁	541375	294996		423704	191397		794547	399863		673811	416453		1171870	685420
吉林	237293	355532		145910	287145		267326	557168		217811	532453		338420	853890
黑龙江	367428	607485		218475	597666		317053	989284		195245	1019849		321850	1463210
上海	665526	132562		707147	118929		2281926	171516		3025057	375094		4900490	401010
江苏	791110	620478		943642	437828		2008789	1306295		3290717	1327774		4887290	1893540
浙江	335886	632323		453509	500847		2857611	1020842		5062189	1041132		8372910	1339400
安徽	337763	533388		151267	724972		329958	3045221		670642	3835774		822140	5525590
福建	251044	238387		335359	213897		1417095	657400		1933962	802038		2449910	1113660
江西	224865	293772		121851	499289		248347	2821684		499170	2475849		698350	3483280
山东	609432	534842		513218	371691		951663	924421		923472	1123019		1335580	2014990
河南	477833	589626		262794	720881		494632	2430484		279547	3433358		429660	5430370
湖北	431121	346274		263476	371691		638137	2326526		501132	2714868		843470	3804200
湖南	271802	528614		209417	685621		381726	3432863		501057	3327849		688420	4591910
广东	1257508	250494		1896636	215164		12106389	461053		11996377	1715170		13874400	1612900
广西	142505	588889		116494	539419		302589	1934884		397208	2123094		597790	2820530
海南	150101	105977		101105	99351		229126	136411		190792	157962		337710	235900
重庆	-	-		-	-		471326	1161189		427170	1437434		735590	1844060
四川	469876^a	1316049^a		384938^a	1419262^a		620632	4626874		763245	3940755		1052830	4988090
贵州	190408	312786		148053	391074		275211	1296758		531094	1765660		591930	2680750
云南	250264	277432		201332	235326		771305	419095		469132	600906		620880	1089070
西藏	-	54582		34968	27273		74411	37211		25434	31396		91970	62490
陕西	314588	362349		158865	257632		445253	757179		254868	826943		734020	1347490
甘肃	199196	280715		135878	244580		214358	590337		117736	494340		260200	1046860
青海	115819	102141		50065	74513		80958	129632		73585	85358		182540	149980
宁夏	91912	56609		47533	52987		135600	92021		74566	67774		239030	150660
新疆	341718	277412		551205	145910		1202295	228189		577434	181736		839800	286690
总省际人口迁移量	11065361		10382989			33981221		38042340			54993910

表1

图2

表2

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图6

表3

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图8

图9

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国家	分区系统	区域个数	普查年份	强度(%)
中国	省	31	2005	3.00
墨西哥	州(state)	32	2005	2.70
美国	州(state)	51	2005	8.94
澳大利亚	区域(SD)	61	2006	10.39

省份	人口迁入率 (%)					成熟	波动	新兴
省份	1985-1990				1990-1995	1995-2000	2000-2005	2005-2010
上海	5.469	5.289	15.662	18.071	27.562	√
北京	7.007	6.228	16.042	16.247	24.888	√
浙江	0.833	1.088	6.443	10.824	17.095			√
广东	2.011	2.989	17.170	13.881	15.091		√
天津	3.027	2.459	5.434	9.075	14.354			√
江苏	0.925	1.104	4.318	5.572	6.930			√
福建	1.273	1.394	2.810	4.424	6.538			√
新疆	2.511	3.605	6.998	3.000	4.178		√