青海高原东部土地利用的低碳优化模拟——以海东市为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201507007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人类活动导致的土地利用变化及其碳效应在区域及全球碳循环研究中具有举足轻重的作用。以位于青海高原东部的海东市为研究区,在探讨土地利用碳循环系数的基础上,预测海东市2020年低碳情景下的土地利用结构,并运用CLUE-S模型模拟了海东市土地利用低碳优化空间格局,然后对比分析低碳情景与规划情景下,海东市2020年土地利用格局的差异。研究表明：① 尽管低碳情景下研究区域水浇地和旱地持续减少,但相对于规划情景,优质耕地的流失量减少。② 有林地稳定增加,疏林草地缓慢增加,区域固碳能力逐步提升。③ 建设用地适度扩张,增加幅度小于规划情景,其中城镇用地相对于规划情景碳排放减少14.03万t。低碳视角的区域土地利用结构调整与空间布局优化,为区域土地利用科学规划与管理提供决策支持。

关键词: 低碳, 土地利用变化, 空间优化模拟, 青海高原

Abstract:

Land use change and its carbon effects by human activities play an important role in researches on regional and global carbon cycle. Taking Haidong city as a study area, which is located in the eastern part of Qinghai Plateau, this paper firstly calculated carbon cycle coefficients of each land use type based on local carbon mechanism. Then by linear programming method, an optimization model was constructed to estimate land use quantitative structure under low-carbon scenario in 2020. Finally, CLUE-S model was used to simulate land use spatial allocation of the study area in low-carbon and land-use planning scenarios. Through comparing the two land use simulation maps in 2020 of Haidong city under different scenarios, four conclusions can be drawn: (1) Both irrigated and no-irrigated land will continue to decline under low-carbon scenario from 2009 to 2020, and the amount of high-quality farmland loss based on low-carbon emission will be less than that in the land use overall planning scenario; (2) Forest land would increase stably and grassland will expand slowly under low-carbon scenario, which results in a continuous increase in regional carbon sequestration; (3) Both urban land and rural residential land under low-carbon scenario will increase to a certain degree, while the total area of construction land under low-carbon scenario is less than that under land-use planning scenario. Therefore, the carbon emission from construction land under low-carbon scenario is less than that under land-use planning scenario. For example, the area of urban land under low-carbon scenario will be 974.61 ha lower than that under land-use planning scenario, that is, the carbon emission under low-carbon scenario is 14.03×10⁴ t lower than that under land-use planning scenario; (4) Compared with the planning scenario, land use patterns of low-carbon scenario show an overall upward trend in carbon sinks, which would increase carbon stocks of 7.77×10⁴ t, decrease carbon emissions of 31.99×10⁴ t. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon land use distribution pattern of Haidong city will have a positive effect on increasing carbon storage and decreasing carbon emission, which can keep balance between construction land, farmland, forest land and grassland. Generally speaking, regional land use structure adjustment and spatial allocation optimization from a low-carbon perspective will support decision making of regional land use management and ecological civilization construction in the eastern part of Qinghai Plateau.

Key words: low-carbon, land use change, spatial optimization simulation, Qinghai Plateau

王慧敏, 曾永年. 青海高原东部土地利用的低碳优化模拟——以海东市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(7): 1270-1284.

Huimin WANG, Yongnian ZENG. Land use optimization simulation based on low-carbon emissions in eastern part of Qinghai Plateau[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(7): 1270-1284.

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土地利用类型	碳密度(t/hm²)
土地利用类型	土壤	植被	总计
耕地	47.81	0	47.81
园地	38.05	0	38.05
林地	116.73	35.44	152.17
牧草地	89.05	3.4	92.45
水域	59.38	0	59.38
未利用地	37.44	0	37.44

动物	黄牛	乳牛	水牛	驴	猪	山羊	绵羊	家禽	兔
平均体重(kg)	600	600	666	320	75	37.5	45	2.513	4.5
数量(10⁴头)	9.12	8.34	9.42	3.45	61.45	22.55	108.83	126.25	13.91

能源种类	原煤	洗精煤	焦炭	天然气	汽油	柴油	液化石油气	煤油	其他石油制品	电力	薪柴	沼气	秸秆
折标煤系数(kg/kg)	0.71	0.90	0.97	1.33	1.47	1.46	0.50	0.57	0.73	0.12	0.57	0.71	0.43
碳排放系数(t/t)	0.76	0.76	0.86	0.45	0.55	0.59	1.71	1.47	0.59	2.21	0.57	0.57	0.57

土地利用类型	用地分类	能源消费行业
建设用地	城镇工矿用地	建筑业
		批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业
		城镇生活消费
		工业
	农村居民点	农村生物质能
	农村居民点	农村生活消费
	交通运输用地	交通运输、仓储和邮政业
	水利设施用地	水利业

土地利用类型	二级分类	碳密度(t/hm²)	碳排放系数(t/hm²)
农用地	耕地	47.81	0.344
	园地	38.05	0.047
	林地	152.17	0.033
	牧草地	92.45	0.050
	其他农用地	39.93	3.010
建设用地	城镇工矿用地	84.11	143.960
	农村居民点	73.39	11.110
	交通运输用地	49.15	23.830
	水利设施用地	59.38	7.320
	其他建设用地	14.38	7.320
其他用地	水域	59.38	0.722
其他用地	未利用地	37.44	0