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### 1959-2008年淮河流域极端径流的强度和频率特征

1. 1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖 241000
2. 安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心,芜湖 241000
3. 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室,芜湖 241000
• 收稿日期:2014-12-30 修回日期:2015-05-05 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2015-08-20
• 作者简介:

作者简介：姚梦婷（1991- ）,女,安徽铜陵人,硕士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: mtyao1991@163.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41101035）;教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金（20113424120002, 20123424110001）;淮河流域气象开放研究基金（HRM201303）

### The intensity and frequency characteristics of extreme runoff over the Huaihe River Basin during 1959-2008

Mengting YAO1,2,3(), Chao GAO1,2, Miao LU1,2,3, Qing LIU1,2,3, Chunsheng HU1,2

1. 1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China
2. Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China
3. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241000, Anhui,China
• Received:2014-12-30 Revised:2015-05-05 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2015-08-20

Abstract:

In order to study the intensity and frequency characteristics of extreme runoff over the Huaihe River Basin, this paper used 21 distribution functions to fit the AM (Annual Maximum) and POT (Peak Over Threshold) extreme runoff series at 13 hydrological stations which were located in the coverage area of trunk and tributary of the middle and upper Huaihe River Basin. In addition, M-K test was used to study the variation trend of intensity and frequency of extreme runoff. The results are as follows: (1) Intensity of extreme runoff at 6 stations has a positive trend while that at the other 7 stations has a negative trend; temporal frequency of extreme runoff at 8 stations has a positive trend while that at the other 5 stations has a negative trend. (2) In AM series, the frequency distribution of runoff value obeys the Weibull function rather than the widely used GEV function on the whole, while in POT series, the frequency distribution of runoff value still obeys the GP function on the whole. (3) Compared with other 12 stations, the frequency distribution of extreme runoff value of Bantai station is the most intensive with a peak frequency of 0.27, and the frequency distribution of extreme runoff value of Wujiadu station is the most homogeneous with a peak frequency of 0.0475. (4) The extreme runoff value is high in the middle basin and Mengwa region in the study area. (5) The error rate of extreme runoff estimated based on GP function is the lowest, whose error rates of most regions is lower than 0.2. In particular, the estimation accuracy of GP function is higher than that of Pearson III function, so that the engineering standard in the upper reaches of the basin may need to be adjusted. Moreover, affected by the function form, the estimation accuracy of best-fit function is lower than that of the GP and GEV functions.