关键词: 因震失独, “后人口再生育”时期, 再生育小孩和家庭发展, 有序probit模型, 汶川地震

Abstract:

The casualty of "5\begin{array}{c}\cdot \end{array}12" Wenchuan earthquake amounted to 461793 people, among which 69227 were killed, 374643 were wounded, and 17923 were missing. Specifically, in Sichuan Province, 62161 people were killed in this catastrophe. Death is the most irreparable damage to the society in which the balance of the regional population structure was broken thoroughly. But more seriously, many families' sustainable procreation encountered difficulties under the existing child-birth policy. Such prevention of procreation created a specifically social group, which had received much attention since the catastrophe. The group members refer to those who had lost their only child, either killed or severely injured in the earthquake. There are more than 8000 families of this kind (approximately, 3700 death and 3800 disability). To help them overcome such family disaster, the government made a new policy of 'Population Reborn', which had some significantly positive social effects. This policy has also become an example of population reconstruction when overcoming other urgent disasters. While this policy of 'Population Reborn', as a temporary rescuing measure, aimed to help the only-child-lost family get a chance of having one more child, it has the long-term plan representing the benefit of the newly born children. Therefore, when the policy was implemented, the reborn children, as well as the newly developed families, has undergone a lot of difficulties. Based on the investigated data of the reborn children and the newly developed families, this paper evaluated some potential factors and mechanism influencing those children and families. In detail, the reborn children and the newly developed families were specifically treated as ordered dependent variables, and the potential influencing factors were designed as common controlling and other related individual independent variables. Then, through Ordered Probit Model, three aspects, including the health of reborn children, their education, and the situation of newly developed families were analyzed. In conclusion, this research found that by the policy of 'Population Reborn', those only-child-lost families had some "comfort" by procreating a new child. Except for this, the reborn families were associated with some other serious problems. Due to the lack of more detailed data, it is believed that some deep problems are still in need of exploration. At present, the government should take the current research findings into consideration and amend the existing policies, and formulate long-term and efficient policies as soon as possible.

Key words: child-lost family of earthquake, post-population reborn term, reborned child, family, Ordered Probit Model, Wenchuan earthquake